2022 Tour of Norway, 2.Pro - 24th to 29th May

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Who will win the 2022 Tour of Norway?

  • Remco Evenepoel

    Votes: 41 70.7%
  • Tobias Halland Johannesen

    Votes: 6 10.3%
  • Carl Fredrik Hagen

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Tao Geoghen Hart

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Ethan Hayter

    Votes: 6 10.3%
  • Esteban Chaves

    Votes: 2 3.4%
  • Gianluca Brambilla

    Votes: 1 1.7%
  • Cian Uitjdebroeks

    Votes: 1 1.7%
  • Other rider

    Votes: 1 1.7%

  • Total voters
    58
  • Poll closed .
From what i understood it wasn't always tailwind. He stated that when they were with 3-4 there was a headwind, he attacked when it was on the side and after that it was a tail wind.

Not sure how long they had a tailwind though, but at least the wind seemed to be somewhat variable.

Did he had a big gap at that point? because that is without the flat part. His attack was rather at the end. Could be the others also put rather big VAM numbers?
 
Now lets wait for all the good and less good explanations as to why he was able to climb so fast, yet still wasn't all that impressive at all
Because if you check the weather sites and visual footage of direction the flags are waving it literally indicates there was a big tailwind on a climb that's mostly one straight road except for some hairpins early in the climb.

You can dismiss this by saying that I'm biased but if some neopro in Norway puts up higher VAMs than say Landa in the Giro then I'm not inclined to dismiss evidence that climbing circumstances are fully comparable.
 
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Tobias Halland Johannessen is posting Strava files with his Watt, isn’t he? (I’m not good with Strava, but when I’m looking at the segments he did today it gives a number of watts)

On the segment called Zombie hill, which is the first 6,8 km of the climb (avg 9,6%) it says he had 406 avg watts and he lost almost 50 seconds to Remco on this segment (Remco file says nothing about watts).

I don’t know the weight of Johannessen. PCS lists him at 62, but that looks a bit low to me. In case it’s correct then Johannesen did 6,45w/kg for 19 minutes and lost 50 seconds??
This was also the part of the climb where there was some playing before Vine started his second and serious attack.

Or am I missing something obvious here (like do we need to add the weight of the bike)?
 
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Tobias Halland Johannessen is posting Strava files with his Watt, isn’t he? (I’m not good with Strava, but when I’m looking at the segments he did today it gives a number of watts)

On the segment called Zombie hill, which is the first 6,8 km of the climb (avg 9,6%) it says he had 406 avg watts and he lost almost 50 seconds to Remco on this segment (Remco file says nothing about watts).

I don’t know the weight of Johannessen. PCS lists him at 62, but that looks a bit low to me. In case it’s correct then Johannesen did 6,45w/kg for 19 minutes and lost 50 seconds??
This was also the part of the climb where there was some playing before Vine started his second and serious attack.

Or am I missing something obvious here (like do we need to add the weight of the bike)?
Vine posted on Strava as well. His file is included in this article:
Article shows that Evenepoel's performance (and also a few other's) today was mighty impressive.
 
Tobias Halland Johannessen is posting Strava files with his Watt, isn’t he? (I’m not good with Strava, but when I’m looking at the segments he did today it gives a number of watts)

On the segment called Zombie hill, which is the first 6,8 km of the climb (avg 9,6%) it says he had 406 avg watts and he lost almost 50 seconds to Remco on this segment (Remco file says nothing about watts).

I don’t know the weight of Johannessen. PCS lists him at 62, but that looks a bit low to me. In case it’s correct then Johannesen did 6,45w/kg for 19 minutes and lost 50 seconds??
This was also the part of the climb where there was some playing before Vine started his second and serious attack.

Or am I missing something obvious here (like do we need to add the weight of the bike)?
Strava watts should be measured by a power meter. So they should actually show how hard the rider had to stomp the pedals. Doesn't matter how much the rider weighs, how steep it was or whether there was a tail- or headwind. Those watts show that they were going hard. If you think Johannessen is a bit heavier than 62, and Evenepoel is a bit lighter than 64... they should be close in weight, but the assumption that Evenepoel pushed 6.5w/kg won't be that far off then.
 
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From that Lanterne Rouge article, according to which Vine did 6.3 W/kg:


So I'm supposed to believe that:
  • Evenepoel's performance today was better than anything Pogacar has ever done
  • Vine was on a par with a good Pogacar performance, e.g. Romme 2021
  • yet Vine took less time on the THJ/Huys/Uijtdebroeks/Chaves group than Pogacar did on Carapaz on Romme, despite this climb being longer
I'm sorry, if the calculation shows that Evenepoel would have smoked Pogacar with this performance, that Vine would have stayed with Pogacar, and that there are seven riders in this race who are climbing better than every rider but one in the Alps in the 2021 Tour... the calculation is by definition wrong. And not by a little bit.
 
From that Lanterne Rouge article, according to which Vine did 6.3 W/kg:


So I'm supposed to believe that:
  • Evenepoel's performance today was better than anything Pogacar has ever done
  • Vine was on a par with a good Pogacar performance, e.g. Romme 2021
  • yet Vine took less time on the THJ/Huys/Uijtdebroeks/Chaves group than Pogacar did on Carapaz on Romme, despite this climb being longer
I'm sorry, if the calculation shows that Evenepoel would have smoked Pogacar with this performance, that Vine would have stayed with Pogacar, and that there are seven riders in this race who are climbing better than every rider but one in the Alps in the 2021 Tour... the calculation is by definition wrong. And not by a little bit.
Wasn’t the weather horrible in the alps during last years Tour? And they did it just after that 250 km stage that was pretty crazy?
I guess there is a lot of factors which makes direct comparison between different races hard. So the numbers are more indications of performance level, not a perfect measurement,
 
Same guy estimated that he did 6.97* W/kg for 10 minutes in Valenciana (EDIT: it's now 6.8 W/kg in the link of today). How well did that predict how he would do two days later?

But then recall this:

Some dude supposedly saw Evenepoel's Strava power data before he deleted it, saying 423W for the climb. Assuming he is a bit heavier (62-63) than his normal weight (61), that would still put him at 6.8 to 6.7 W/kg. If those guys of Cycling Graphs are using his "mid season" weight (61) then that would indeed mean over 6.9W/kg.

EDIT:

View: https://twitter.com/Samuele19665287/status/1488959696715321344
Another one:

If you use 66.5 kg instead, 423 W equals 6.36 W/kg. Not exactly out of this world for 10'.
 
Last edited:
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Wasn’t the weather horrible in the alps during last years Tour? And they did it just after that 250 km stage that was pretty crazy?
I guess there is a lot of factors which makes direct comparison between different races hard. So the numbers are more indications of performance level, not a perfect measurement,
Yes, that's the whole point. The calculations don't take any sort of context into account so on a day with a strong tailwind (Evenepoel himself attested to this) they're going to be way off.
 
Even disregarding when calculations being off, when an entire group puts out personal best W/kg it gets hard to extrapolate.
To be fair, like 7 of the guys in top 10 today is 23 or younger and they haven’t done that many races with a real climb like today in their pro careers. One could almost say that it should be expected that many of them puts our personal bests.
But I get your point and it would definitively be even more suspicious if it happened with older riders.
 
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Yes, because his weight was a lot more than people guessed. Vine has put his own weight into Strava, you think he has the wrong weight in?
Probably not by much. And his power meter is probably well calibrated. But I wouldn't assume that the error (either way) is 0.0 %

I will be surprised though if Vine will show himself to be an elite climber on level with Vlasov and the likes.
 
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Yes, that's the whole point. The calculations don't take any sort of context into account so on a day with a strong tailwind (Evenepoel himself attested to this) they're going to be way off.
Power from a power meter is the power a rider pushed, period. Unlike speed/time it is not affected by wind. The wind would only make the rider not have to push as hard on the pedals for the same speed. Which would make the powernumbers lower for a similar speed/time. But in this case we have the raw power numbers from 2 different riders.
 
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