2022 Tour of Norway, 2.Pro - 24th to 29th May

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Who will win the 2022 Tour of Norway?

  • Remco Evenepoel

    Votes: 41 70.7%
  • Tobias Halland Johannesen

    Votes: 6 10.3%
  • Carl Fredrik Hagen

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Tao Geoghen Hart

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Ethan Hayter

    Votes: 6 10.3%
  • Esteban Chaves

    Votes: 2 3.4%
  • Gianluca Brambilla

    Votes: 1 1.7%
  • Cian Uitjdebroeks

    Votes: 1 1.7%
  • Other rider

    Votes: 1 1.7%

  • Total voters
    58
  • Poll closed .
Power from a power meter is the power a rider pushed, period. Unlike speed/time it is not affected by wind. The wind would only make the rider not have to push as hard on the pedals for the same speed. Which would make the powernumbers lower for a similar speed/time. But in this case we have the raw power numbers from 2 different riders.
Do you or do you not believe that Vine put out Pogacar-tier numbers today? Because that's what this boils down to. If yes, I would recommend putting money on him as a future GT winner.
 
If yes, I would recommend putting money on him as a future GT winner.
Do you or do you not believe that a great performance in one big climb on day 3 in a small stage race is the same as winning a GT? ;)

I mean, come on. What’s wrong with the forum, everything has to be either brilliant or ***. If Vine do one climb similar to Pogi then he has to be at similar level in a 3 week race also? I know you try to be funny, but these silly exaggerations is just ruining.

No one here has claimed that Remco performance today means he would challenge the Slovenians in the Tour. It can still be a great performance and something that can be seen as a sign that he has improved his climbing.
 
Do you or do you not believe that Vine put out Pogacar-tier numbers today? Because that's what this boils down to. If yes, I would recommend putting money on him as a future GT winner.
I have no reason to think multiple power meters of different riders would coincidentally be defective at the same time. So i 'm inclined to believe the numbers. Maybe you should be looking at the efforts needed and expended energy up until the climb over the past three days in the Tour of Norway and not want to compare that to needed efforts and expended energy up until the 2nd/3rd week of the TDF. But the numbers on the actual climb? They are what they are.
 
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Do you or do you not believe that a great performance in one big climb on day 3 in a small stage race is the same as winning a GT? ;)

I mean, come on. What’s wrong with the forum, everything has to be either brilliant or ***. If Vine do one climb similar to Pogi then he has to be at similar level in a 3 week race also? I know you try to be funny, but these silly exaggerations is just ruining.

No one here has claimed that Remco performance today means he would challenge the Slovenians in the Tour. It can still be a great performance and something that can be seen as a sign that he has improved his climbing.
Where am I saying that Evenepoel, or anyone else for that matter, is "brilliant or ***"? It's the W/kg numbers that make it seem that he and his closer competitors put in brilliant performances, I'm the one who's being more restrained by saying it was a good-but-not-stratospheric performance, and one that was the best he's done in a while - so I'm literally taking it as a sign his climbing is improving.

Regarding Vine, there are very few people who can put out Pogacar-tier numbers even for one climb. Of course that doesn't automatically translate to being a GT winner, but if you think that Vine is one of those people his odds of going on to be one will be better than what the bookmakers will give you. Also the Pogacar data include a number of smaller races, they're broadly in line with his GT numbers anyway. No, it's not the same as doing it in a GT, but it's about whether or not he's showing the potential to do so. Either you take the numbers at face value and say he showed the potential to compete with Pogacar (and therefore that Evenepoel showed the potential to beat Pogacar), or you take the numbers at face value but say they have little predictive power (and therefore that Evenepoel's performance today doesn't mean that much), or you don't take the numbers at face value (and therefore don't take Evenepoel's either, because if Vine did 6.3 W/kg then 6.5 W/kg seems a good estimate for Evenepoel's performance) and say that he didn't show the potential to compete with Pogacar (and therefore that Evenepoel didn't show the potential to beat Pogacar).
I have no reason to think multiple power meters of different riders would coincidentally be detective at the same time. So i 'm inclined to believe the numbers. Maybe you should be looking at the efforts needed and expended energy up until the climb over the past three days in the Tour of Norway and not want to compare that to needed efforts and expended energy up until the 2nd/3rd week of the TDF. But the numbers on the actual climb? They are what they are.
I address most of this above, but the way I see it, either the calculations are off and we lack the context for Vine's power data, or Vine's power meter is off and he wasn't as good as his data suggests, or both are true, or neither are off and Vine really was world-class today. I think the former is the most likely and therefore the numbers that are being thrown around upthread aren't meaningful.

And if the argument is that you can't compare numbers here to those in GTs (which is fair), then there isn't much point in reading much into them in the first place.

Tl;dr - power numbers aren't that helpful, as a result something is wrong here.
 
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Where am I saying that Evenepoel, or anyone else for that matter, is "brilliant or ***"? It's the W/kg numbers that make it seem that he and his closer competitors put in brilliant performances, I'm the one who's being more restrained by saying it was a good-but-not-stratospheric performance, and one that was the best he's done in a while - so I'm literally taking it as a sign his climbing is improving.

Regarding Vine, there are very few people who can put out Pogacar-tier numbers even for one climb. Of course that doesn't automatically translate to being a GT winner, but if you think that Vine is one of those people his odds of going on to be one will be better than what the bookmakers will give you. Also the Pogacar data include a number of smaller races, they're broadly in line with his GT numbers anyway. No, it's not the same as doing it in a GT, but it's about whether or not he's showing the potential to do so. Either you take the numbers at face value and say he showed the potential to compete with Pogacar (and therefore that Evenepoel showed the potential to beat Pogacar), or you take the numbers at face value but say they have little predictive power (and therefore that Evenepoel's performance today doesn't mean that much), or you don't take the numbers at face value (and therefore don't take Evenepoel's either, because if Vine did 6.3 W/kg then 6.5 W/kg seems a good estimate for Evenepoel's performance) and say that he didn't show the potential to compete with Pogacar (and therefore that Evenepoel didn't show the potential to beat Pogacar).

I address most of this above, but the way I see it, either the calculations are off and we lack the context for Vine's power data, or Vine's power meter is off and he wasn't as good as his data suggests, or both are true, or neither are off and Vine really was world-class today. I think the former is the most likely and therefore the numbers that are being thrown around upthread aren't meaningful.

And if the argument is that you can't compare numbers here to those in GTs (which is fair), then there isn't much point in reading much into them in the first place.

Tl;dr - power numbers aren't that helpful.
It gives you and idea. But you have to interpret them.
 
TGH also did insane numbers on Piancavallo, and look where he is now. Just saying.
Or look where Jai Hindley is. Considered a fluke until two weeks ago. Then everything went OK in his prep and now he's three days away from possibly winning the Giro.

A super climbing performance tells you the rider has the potential to win a GT. Whether that performance is repeatable on a day to day basis for three weeks depends on many factors (recovery, health, perfect preparation, team support, etc). But those climbing numbers automatically puts him in a category above most other riders in the pro peloton, which I still had a few doubts about (climbing wise).

To me this is his best climbing performance ever. The competition is irrelevant.
 
Or look where Jai Hindley is. Considered a fluke until two weeks ago. Then everything went OK in his prep and now he's three days away from possibly winning the Giro.

A super climbing performance tells you the rider has the potential to win a GT. Whether that performance is repeatable on a day to day basis for three weeks depends on many factors (recovery, health, perfect preparation, team support, etc). But those climbing numbers automatically puts him in a category above most other riders in the pro peloton, which I still had a few doubts about (climbing wise).

To me this is his best climbing performance ever. The competition is irrelevant.
Competition is relevant unless putting 1'30 into some neo pro is as relevant as putting 1'30 into Vincenzo Nibali in a Giro MTF.
 
What was more impressive from Remco was he went to the front and ground everyone into the ground, just how Indurain did, as did Ullrich in 1997

If he climbs like this, it will be hard for anyone to beat him. Just get the diesel fired up and don't let up if people can initially follow
 
What was more impressive from Remco was he went to the front and ground everyone into the ground, just how Indurain did, as did Ullrich in 1997

If he climbs like this, it will be hard for anyone to beat him. Just get the diesel fired up and don't let up if people can initially follow
I think this is what most people have been saying he should do. He doesn't have many cartouches, maybe 1 serious one and shouldn't waste that. This probably won't work against a stronger field, but at least he might gain experience now on how climbing suits him best.
afaik this is the first time they are really focussing on long climbs and altitude training etc. (and not even that extensive).


About the power, like many stated, you can't really compare power/kg values between different races. Fatigue, the race conditions, the intervals all have an effect on it. It would be really hard to still understand how some of those power numbers came to be. (If you only go full throttle past the midway point, your power number over the climb will appear weaker for example).
But a very impressive performance from Remco/Vine (who is also still young). Seems like Remco is finally at the point where we (all) expected him to be... Lets see how he progresses in tour of switzerland which has a lot more heavy climbing days back-to-back and where there are stronger riders whith a better punch to see how he copes with a more interval based climb.
(We need to keep in mind these are still preparation rides... )
 
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What was more impressive from Remco was he went to the front and ground everyone into the ground, just how Indurain did, as did Ullrich in 1997

If he climbs like this, it will be hard for anyone to beat him. Just get the diesel fired up and don't let up if people can initially follow
Totally different level of race and competition but the way Remco moved clear of Jay Vine reminded me of RoboBasso dropping Cadel Evans on either Zoncolan or Mortirolo in 2010 where he didn’t explosively attack but just lifted the pace another notch and Evans behind just melted away pedal stroke by pedal stroke.

Whether he will be able to climb at that elite level is not answered yet but I certainly think he can and if he does this will be the manner in which he does it.
 
Or look where Jai Hindley is. Considered a fluke until two weeks ago. Then everything went OK in his prep and now he's three days away from possibly winning the Giro.

A super climbing performance tells you the rider has the potential to win a GT. Whether that performance is repeatable on a day to day basis for three weeks depends on many factors (recovery, health, perfect preparation, team support, etc). But those climbing numbers automatically puts him in a category above most other riders in the pro peloton, which I still had a few doubts about (climbing wise).

To me this is his best climbing performance ever. The competition is irrelevant.
Of course. I mostly meant it as a joke. But also exactly what you said, you can have the potential to produce insane numbers but actually doing it consistently, be it over three weeks or over multiple seasons, is a different matter.
 
Totally different level of race and competition but the way Remco moved clear of Jay Vine reminded me of RoboBasso dropping Cadel Evans on either Zoncolan or Mortirolo in 2010 where he didn’t explosively attack but just lifted the pace another notch and Evans behind just melted away pedal stroke by pedal stroke.

Whether he will be able to climb at that elite level is not answered yet but I certainly think he can and if he does this will be the manner in which he does it.
Well Zoncolan has a 5km stretch at 15%. Drag gets less significant at 11-12km/h. I think we tend to underestimate the importance of suckwheeling at 18-20km/h cause 10-15W can make a difference.

I will say that tailwind should make it easier to clean someone of the wheel. Tailwind will also make the group whittle down quicker, so, Still when he got popped I expected Vine to lose a lot more time, so good performance by him.

About the accelerations, I don't think Evenepoel ever had much of a surpluss of energy on a climb like this. When you have that it doesn't matter that much how you climb it.
 
Well Zoncolan has a 5km stretch at 15%. Drag gets less significant at 11-12km/h. I think we tend to underestimate the importance of suckwheeling at 18-20km/h cause 10-15W can make a difference.

I will say that tailwind should make it easier to clean someone of the wheel. Tailwind will also make the group whittle down quicker, so, Still when he got popped I expected Vine to lose a lot more time, so good performance by him.

About the accelerations, I don't think Evenepoel ever had much of a surpluss of energy on a climb like this. When you have that it doesn't matter that much how you climb it.
I certainly wasn't trying to compare the 2 climbs, just the riding style. He wont ever become a Contador dancing on the pedals type climber but he still can become a very efficient high level 'diesel' climber like an Ullrich.
 
Competition is relevant unless putting 1'30 into some neo pro is as relevant as putting 1'30 into Vincenzo Nibali in a Giro MTF.
Well, one of those neopros -as you can read in this topic- won l'Avenir last year, was a revelation in Catalunya and is actually older than Evenepoel. The other neopro had already in 2020 been heralded as a better version of Evenepoel by his DS (who also worked with Evenepoel in the junior ranks) and is one of a select few superfavorites to win l'Avenir this year. Then there was Huys, a great unknown (but not a neopro) except for a fact that he's the same age as Pogacar (only 3 days separate them), and a few years ago (juniors and U23) regularly finished ahead of guys like Vanhoucke, Crass, Hirschi and Pogacar, in climbing stage races.

I'm only slightly serious of course, but these guys weren't exactly non-factors either, or Chaves and Hart should consider retiring.

I think the main point you are overlooking is that the final 3k of the climb was getting a lot flatter. And while flatter should favour Evenepoel in relative terms, it also means the amount of time you could take back there, diminishes significantly. You can take 20s on a 3k flat, but you can take a multitude of that on a 3k climb. So with the time he could possibly have extended his lead with on those final 3k being rather small, that also means that the large part of his lead would have been established before that flat section. Evenepoel distances Chaves, Huys and Uijtdebroeks at 6.5k from the finish, and 6.2k from the finish he drops Johannessen. That leaves roughly 3.5k for him to take significant time before the road gets flatter. So i'm guessing he took at least a minute on that 3.5k section (GPS reported 1m8s at 3k from the finish). He drops Plapp (another climber/timetrialer) at 5k from the finish. At that moment the GPS already reported the Johannessen group at 45 seconds. You can see Plapp pass the 3k signs 57s later than Evenepoel.

So he takes nearly a minute on Plapp on exactly 2k of climbing. And he takes roughly 1m 10s on 3.5k of climbing on ''some neopro''.
 
Reactions: Andre
I think this is what most people have been saying he should do. He doesn't have many cartouches, maybe 1 serious one and shouldn't waste that. This probably won't work against a stronger field, but at least he might gain experience now on how climbing suits him best.
afaik this is the first time they are really focussing on long climbs and altitude training etc. (and not even that extensive).


About the power, like many stated, you can't really compare power/kg values between different races. Fatigue, the race conditions, the intervals all have an effect on it. It would be really hard to still understand how some of those power numbers came to be. (If you only go full throttle past the midway point, your power number over the climb will appear weaker for example).
But a very impressive performance from Remco/Vine (who is also still young). Seems like Remco is finally at the point where we (all) expected him to be... Lets see how he progresses in tour of switzerland which has a lot more heavy climbing days back-to-back and where there are stronger riders whith a better punch to see how he copes with a more interval based climb.
(We need to keep in mind these are still preparation rides... )
Remco should ignore those riders who accelerate and slow. Just diesel his way up.

Once his diesel gets going, he goes quickly.
 
Reactions: Carrick-On-Seine

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