2023 Tour de France route rumors

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2012 would be a GREAT route with today's peloton

Yes, Remco would gain 5 minutes over Pog and likely 7 or 8 over Vingegaard due to the 2 proper length ITTs. However, there ere the mountains to actually attack. We don't have a sky train to nullify attacks these days
 
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2012 would be a GREAT route with today's peloton

Yes, Remco would gain 5 minutes over Pog and likely 7 or 8 over Vingegaard due to the 2 proper length ITTs. However, there ere the mountains to actually attack. We don't have a sky train to nullify attacks these days
I am a big Pog fan but what makes you think he can put any time into Vingegaard in a proper individual time trial? Sure, he could put plenty of time into the Vingegaard who couldn't finish in the top 5 of the Denmark National Time Trial Champions 3 years ago. But that Vingegaard morphed into a Jumbo produced star. Ving has put time into Pog in both of the last 2 decent length time trials.
 
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I am a big Pog fan but what makes you think he can put any time into Vingegaard in a proper individual time trial? Sure, he could put plenty of time into the Vingegaard who couldn't finish in the top 5 of the Denmark National Time Trial Champions 3 years ago. But that Vingegaard morphed into a Jumbo produced star. Ving has put time into Pog in both of the last 2 decent length time trials.
Because Vingegaard has NEVER come close to Remco in a TT, including when they faced each other this year
 
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Let's be real though. 2012 was not actually a good course. Sure it had some innovations but realistically it did not have any great mountain days. Le Planche was a nice new addition and the following day was nice as well. The stage with the Grand Colombiere made the mistake of 2009's Col du Tourmalet stage, the climbs were in the middle too far from the finish for the GC guys. La Toussuire as a queen stage was weak. I personally am not a fan of the climb, not to say that it isn't bad but it isn't amazing. It makes for a descent stage, not an epic one. The pyrenees were also meh. Peyragudes has never really been awesome either. Not a fan. The course had 3 kind of descent high mountain days and not really any epic amazing ones. Then they included more TT kilometres than the two editions previously combined. I am a big fan of TT's but you have to include good mountain days to back them up. Also Remco would put at best 3 minutes into either Vinegaard and Pogacar if either had a bad day. Wiggo dominated the TT's that year by a landslide and still only put 3 minutes into Nibali in the final time trial. Pogacar and Vinegaard are both superior time trialists to Nibali at his best.
 
the funny thing is, that actually in theory some of the route ideas were not to bad

-introduction of the Grand Columbier, with a hard moutain - soft mountain design. However, to early in the race for such a stage, to soft design in the first 120k, and the next day the hardest stages of the whole tour
-decent queen stage, that was one of the few stages worth watching that tour
-introduciton of mur de Peguere. A good opportunity to attack. However, stage design to soft.
-classic Aubisque - Tourmalet stage, didn't bring what they hoped for
-not to bad hard mountain - softer mountain combi with Port de Bales (at this stage not overused) and peyresourdre
There may have been some good ideas, but the design was awfully executed. And it didn't help that the actual design benefitted Sky really good.

Thd Grand Colombier-Richemond stage was far too early in the race. A stage like that should not be the first big mountain stage. In addition it was the queen stage next day. And they also used probably the easiest ascent to Grand Colombier.
The La Toussuire stage was okay design, but the last climb to La Toussuire isn't very steep and suited to a diesel climber like Wiggins.
The Foix stage via Pegeuere was just too easy. There should be at least 2 or 3 more climbs before Port de Lers. And a stage like that should probably come as the last big mountain stage.
The Bagneres de Luchon stage was too easy the last half. Tourmalet was 77 km from the finish and Aspin and Peyresourde west are fairly easy.
The Peyragudes finish via Bales was okay, but again the pacing of the stages were bad.
 
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I vomit a little in my mouth every time I hear the word "proper" being ascribed to a ridiculously long ITT that would almost singlehandedly decide a race.

Yet it seems ridiculous to say that Remco could take more than a couple of minutes (three max) out of Pogacar or Vingegaard.
Of course it is. I'm not sure if he is trolling or just completely obliviuos. His fever dreams about bringing back the 1990s is completely unrealistic. Where diesel monsters full of clinic related stuff gained many minutes in TTs and climbed mountains almost as fast as Pantani. And lightweight climbers equally full of clinic related stuff had monster attacks 50 or 70 or 100 km from the stage finish. And while the handful tough mountain stages may have been better, you also had routes with 10-11-12 dead flat stages where nothing happened.
 
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Remco took 15 seconds out of Vingegaard in a 7.5km TT this year. And you are saying he would at best take 1 minute over 100km of ITT?
Remco took less than 2 minutes on Lopez and Mas on 30 km ITT in Vuelta. So he would struggle to get 7-8 minutes on these two over 100 km ITT.
Pogacar and Vingegaard are probably closer to Evenepoel than they are close to Lopez/Mas.

You need to look at the longer TTs Vingegaard have done in the Tour the last year, not what he does on short TTs in races not that important. Unless you want those 100km of ITT in the Tour do be done over 8-10 stages?

7-8 minutes is completely nonsense to talk about, especially when Vingegaard lost about 20s to WVA in a 40 km TT in the Tour this year. Or do you think Remco would put 2-3 minutes into WVA on such a course?
 
Remco took 15 seconds out of Vingegaard in a 7.5km TT this year. And you are saying he would at best take 1 minute over 100km of ITT?
Remco took less than 2 minutes on Lopez and Mas on 30 km ITT in Vuelta. So he would struggle to get 7-8 minutes on these two over 100 km ITT.
Pogacar and Vingegaard are probably closer to Evenepoel than they are close to Lopez/Mas.

You need to look at the longer TTs Vingegaard have done in the Tour the last year, not what he does on short TTs in races not that important. Unless you want those 100km of ITT in the Tour do be done over 8-10 stages?
We can use the same logic on Pog and Vinge vs Remco in the Carpegna stage in TA. Since they were 3-4 mins ahead of Remco then, we could assume that they would beat him with 10 min+ in a monster Tour stage with 4000m+ height meters.
 
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So much of it comes down to the riders you have. I don't think a "proper" ITT would singlehandedly decide a Tour between an in-shape and in-form Remco, Pog and Ving. I think all three would finish within 2 minutes of one another, lets be honest, they probably all finish within 90 seconds of one another if they're all going well. That doesn't decide anything, especially given the way Pog rides in the mountains and how strong Jumbo ride as a team. With that said A)ITTs obviously need to be backed up by big mountains and B) This all goes on the assumption that those big 3 are riding and on their game. If one or two drop out, then yes, this thing gets decided in the time trial because any of the 3 could probably put well over 2 minutes into any other legit GC rival. Of course, by that logic, are there any other real GC rivals in cycling anyway? Pog finished with 3 teammates and how close was the third place rider to him? A few guys (and Jumbo as a team) have separated themselves from everyone else. Does the route really matter? Nobody that we can see is challenging those 3 right now, regardless of the course. Maybe Dani Martinez might develop into someone who can challenge them. Maybe Egan Bernal could recover and change the conversation. Maybe there is some young guy out there. But as of right now, you have 2 individuals in Remco and Pog and a third individual(the designated Jumbo rider, currently Ving) who are miles better than everyone else. All 3 can time trial. You might as well lean into that and put a 50-70 K ITT in the middle of the race. It probably won't happen but I'd love to see it.
 
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And btw, what constitutes a balanced route?

@houtdffan wrote earlier that with the rumoured mountain stages next year, one would need 120 km of ITT to make it balanced.

IMO, a balanced route would give different GC riders a fairly equal chance to win a GT. If we had Dumoulin and Bernal in their prime starting in the same GT, a balanced route would give these to a fair opportunity to win the GC. With 120 km of ITT, I'dont think Bernal would have stood a chance anyway. Dumounin would have beaten him with certainly 8-10 mins in the time trials, and almost no amout of mountain stages would have balanced that. With something like 70 km of ITT, the difference could perhaps have been 5-6 mins. Then Bernal certainly would have had a chance if there were enough tough mountain stages that could have created big gaps.

A good GT route woudn't contain so much ITT that you pretty much eliminated all chances for the more typical climbers.
 
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I vomit a little in my mouth every time I hear the word "proper" being ascribed to a ridiculously long ITT that would almost singlehandedly decide a race.

Yet it seems ridiculous to say that Remco could take more than a couple of minutes (three max) out of Pogacar or Vingegaard.
In a flat 60 km ITT, how big gaps would you expect between Pogi, Vingegaard and Evenepoel? EDIT: and Rogla too of course, and you might as well add Thomas.

I'm unsure who would do better between Pogi and Vingegaard, so I think it's unlikely to decide the race on its own. In the last two Tours over 111 km of ITTs, the cumulative difference between them is 2 seconds. How much would it take to decide the race?
 
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Of course it is. I'm not sure if he is trolling or just completely obliviuos. His fever dreams about bringing back the 1990s is completely unrealistic. Where diesel monsters full of clinic related stuff gained many minutes in TTs and climbed mountains almost as fast as Pantani. And lightweight climbers equally full of clinic related stuff had monster attacks 50 or 70 or 100 km from the stage finish. And while the handful tough mountain stages may have been better, you also had routes with 10-11-12 dead flat stages where nothing happened.
He is trolling. Or he confused pogacar and vingegaard, with mikel landa. And i'm not really sure that landa would lose 8 min in a 100 km itt to remco, but certainly it would be more likely.
 
He is trolling. Or he confused pogacar and vingegaard, with mikel landa. And i'm not really sure that landa would lose 8 min in a 100 km itt to remco, but certainly it would be more likely.
Landa? The same Landa who lost 4 and a half minutes to Contador over 59km?

Are we saying Evenepoel is not a better TTer than Contador? Contador was an elite TTer, but he hasn't produced the top speeds of Evenepoel. Remco likely would have been 60-90 seconds faster than Contador that day

As for the times, remember, gaps tend to increase greatly in the latter kms of the very long ITTs
 
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And btw, what constitutes a balanced route?

@houtdffan wrote earlier that with the rumoured mountain stages next year, one would need 120 km of ITT to make it balanced.

IMO, a balanced route would give different GC riders a fairly equal chance to win a GT. If we had Dumoulin and Bernal in their prime starting in the same GT, a balanced route would give these to a fair opportunity to win the GC. With 120 km of ITT, I'dont think Bernal would have stood a chance anyway. Dumounin would have beaten him with certainly 8-10 mins in the time trials, and almost no amout of mountain stages would have balanced that. With something like 70 km of ITT, the difference could perhaps have been 5-6 mins. Then Bernal certainly would have had a chance if there were enough tough mountain stages that could have created big gaps.

A good GT route woudn't contain so much ITT that you pretty much eliminated all chances for the more typical climbers.
If Dumoulin and Bernal started the same GT both in their prime, Bernal would have no chance unless the route was like 2015 TDF.
 

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