2026 Tour de France CQ game

[Armchair Cyclist]

Stage 19
Alpe d'Huez Part I

Green points

Carapaz is again the main contributor, but not the highest scoring pick

Rider	pts	Teams
POGACAR Tadej	80	0
MARTINEZ Lenny	50	2
CARAPAZ MONTENEGRO Richard Antonio	35	23
KUSS Sepp	25	0
JOHANNESSEN Tobias Halland	15	2
EVENEPOEL Remco	10	0
DEL TORO ROMERO Isaac	5	0
SKJELMOSE JENSEN Mattias	3	0
SEIXAS Paul	2	18
TEJADA CANACUE Harold Alfonso	1	2

Daily gains

2 teams with Martinez, but matching him with Carapaz yields more than putting him in a combination with Johannessen

Rank		Pts
1	YellowKnight	85
2	Onizuka999	65
3=	DevilsElbow, JumboVismaFan, Leadbelly, LosBrolin, Madrazo, QueenStagiaire, SamuCuenca, Search (Carapaz and Seixas)	37
11=	Carapaz teams	35
25	RedheadDane	16
26	Vladimir	3
27=	Seixas teams	2
36	Nine more	0
	Collective_Wisdom	35
	Default	0
	Remco_en_zijn_vrienden	45
	Torito_y_amigos	5

Standings

Merlier, Kooij and Carapaz are the trio that get the top two to where they are. But unless Magnus Cort can do something remarkable of Sunday, it's hard to see TRiley overtaking.

Rank		Pts	+/-
1	Hayneplane	765	(-)
2	Triley36	732	(+1)
3	Kazistuta	707	(-1)
4	PostmanHat	656	(-)
5	Madrazo	627	(+1)
6	Leadbelly	627	(+1)
7	QueenStagiaire	625	(+1)
8	DevilsElbow	600	(+2)
9	DJSprtsch	600	(-4)
10	Shakes	577	(-1)
	Collective_Wisdom	762

Yellow points

Perhaps unexpected moves in the GC top ten, a very unfortunate incident for Rubio, and Ayuso suffers a probably unexpected drop.

Rider	pts	Teams
MARTINEZ Lenny	110	2
CARAPAZ MONTENEGRO Richard Antonio	75	23
JOHANNESSEN Tobias Halland	25	2
TEJADA CANACUE Harold Alfonso	15	2
O'CONNOR Ben	8	3
BRAZ AFONSO Clément	7	1
PARET PEINTRE Valentin	-5	7
VAUQUELIN Kévin	-6	10
VAN EETVELT Lennert	-7	21
AFFINI Edoardo	-20	1
JEGAT Jordan	-20	1
PIDCOCK Thomas	-20	1
RUBIO REYES Einer Augusto	-55	9
AYUSO PESQUERA Juan	-60	23

Daily swings

Slightly more positives than negatives

Rank		Pts
1	YellowKnight	180
2	Onizuka999	137
3	JumboVismaFan	85
4	DevilsElbow	77
4	QueenStagiaire	77
4	SamuCuenca	77
7	Lecko	76
8	Schachus	67
9	Rufs	59
10	RedheadDane	39
11	LosBrolin	19
12	BicycleBoy	15
12	Nightowl	15
14	Leadbelly	10
15	Josedin	8
15	Madrazo	8
15	Search	8
15	Triley36	8
15	Vladimir	8
20	Mikks	5
20	Squire	5
22	BsAsCycling	4
23	BluesInTheBottle	2
23	DJW	2
25	ZigZagWanderer	-1
26	Ingsve	-3
27	Del1962	-7
28	DJSprtsch	-7
29	PeteTurbo2	-19
30	EvansIsTheBest	-27
31	Bminchow	-41
32	Hayneplane	-45
33	IlMaestro	-46
34	AmisVelo	-49
35	Armchair_Cyclist	-58
36	Avoriaz	-59
37	Shakes	-60
38	Laarsland	-63
39	PostmanHat	-64
40	Dogboy	-72
41	SlowClimber	-74
42	MagliaNera	-109
43	Kazistuta	-122
44	TotalPackage	-124
	Collective_Wisdom	-53
	Default	0
	Remco_en_zijn_vrienden	18
	Torito_y_amigos	-59

Standings

As discussed immediately after the end of the stage, the gap between Madrazo and Leadbelly has increased, although it is only half as big as it was yesterday.
Devil's Elbow comes through the closely matched group behind to be the latest occupier of the third podium spot.

Rank		Pts	+/-
1	Madrazo	1593	(-)
2	Leadbelly	1591	(-)
3	DevilsElbow	1383	(+3)
4	LosBrolin	1376	(-)
5	Search	1362	(-)
6	Hayneplane	1358	(-3)
7	QueenStagiaire	1351	(+2)
8	Triley36	1298	(-1)
9	Ingsve	1282	(-1)
10	Mikks	1236	(+1)
11	Laarsland	1185	(-1)
12	AmisVelo	1135	(+1)
13	JumboVismaFan	1126	(+8)
14	IlMaestro	1111	(-)
15	Del1962	1105	(+1)
16	YellowKnight	1097	(+13)
17	BicycleBoy	1095	(+2)
18	Nightowl	1088	(+2)
19	Kazistuta	1077	(-7)
20	Shakes	1073	(-5)
21	SamuCuenca	1056	(+3)
22	Bminchow	1048	(-4)
23	PostmanHat	1045	(-6)
24	Josedin	1003	(-2)
25	Squire	977	(+1)
26	EvansIsTheBest	950	(-1)
27	DJW	935	(-)
28	Dogboy	908	(-5)
29	Lecko	897	(+5)
30	Onizuka999	874	(+9)
31	Avoriaz	867	(-3)
32	Schachus	866	(+4)
33	ZigZagWanderer	824	(-)
34	BsAsCycling	817	(+1)
35	Rufs	802	(+3)
36	TotalPackage	791	(-6)
37	Armchair_Cyclist	785	(-5)
38	Vladimir	784	(-1)
39	MagliaNera	766	(-8)
40	RedheadDane	749	(+1)
41	DJSprtsch	721	(-1)
42	BluesInTheBottle	689	(-)
43	SlowClimber	522	(-)
44	PeteTurbo2	495	(-)
	Collective_Wisdom	1345
	Default	427
	Remco_en_zijn_vrienden	1609
	Torito_y_amigos	805

All eyes on Quinn and Verona again tomorrow.

 

[EvansIsTheBest]

All eyes on Quinn and Verona again tomorrow.

Quinn dropped already. Verona hanging on (barely, in last place) in the bunch.

Edit: Quinn back in the bunch with 5k to go in the Croix de Fer. This is fun.

 

[Squire]

Quinn dropped already. Verona hanging on (barely, in last place) in the bunch.

Edit: Quinn back in the bunch with 5k to go in the Croix de Fer. This is fun.

Yeah, it's actually really cool that we have such a tangible fight for the win. And it's funny that the riders have no idea about the fact that they're involved in such a monumental duel!

Another 130 yellow points lost for me today so far. Van Wilder out. My big Belgian GC bet hasn't turned out too well. Who could have thought.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

I think they are both in the Yellow Jersey group at the top of the Telegraphe.

 

[Squire]

Verona and Quinn both struggling at the back now! Very equally matched.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Quinn is alongside Pidcock and Jegat nearing top og Galibier, Verona unspecified location farther back according to letour.fr

 

[Squire]

Quinn with a glorious 26th on the stage. Verona nowhere to be seen yet.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Quinn with a glorious 26th on the stage. Verona nowhere to be seen yet.

Yeah, they seem to have separated at some point on the Galibier.

Just need to check that Stewart and Walker are finishing, and then Madrazo can prepare his speech.


Edit: Verona yields 9:48 today, and you'd have to assume that Quinn can't waste more than 18:17 waving to fans outside Sacre-Coeur tomorrow.

 

[MADRAZO]

Well done by Quinn indeed. It was definetly not the plan for him to finish top 20 in the GC when I picked him in my cheap trio for the last points. I mostly just hoped for a couple of top 10s in some decimated sprints or breakaways or something like that, like he also did on stage 4. But I cant complain.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Stage 20

Alpe d'Huez Part II

Green points

For the third day in a row, essentially the same riders but in a different order

Rider	pts	Teams
CARAPAZ MONTENEGRO Richard Antonio	80	23
EVENEPOEL Remco	50	0
KUSS Sepp	35	0
POGACAR Tadej	25	0
DEL TORO ROMERO Isaac	15	0
MARTINEZ Lenny	10	2
HINDLEY Jai	5	0
SKJELMOSE JENSEN Mattias	3	0
AYUSO PESQUERA Juan	2	23
SEIXAS Paul	1	18

Daily gains

Two days in a row for Yellow Knight

Rank		Pts
1	YellowKnight Carapaz & Martinez)	90
2=	Leadbelly, LosBrolin, Madrazo, Search (Carapaz, Ayuso and Seixas)	83
6=	Carapaz & Ayuso	82
17=	Carapaz & Seizas	81
21=	Just Carapaz	80
24	Onizuka999	10
25	Laarsland (Ayuso and Seixas)	3
26=	Ayuso teams	2
33=	Seixas teams	1
42=	Three more	0
	Collective_Wisdom	82
	Default	0
	Remco_en_zijn_vrienden	132
	Torito_y_amigos	15

Standings

Rank		Pts	+/-
1	Hayneplane	847	(-)
2	Triley36	814	(-)
3	Madrazo	710	(+2)
4	Leadbelly	710	(+2)
5	Kazistuta	709	(-2)
6	QueenStagiaire	706	(+1)
7	DevilsElbow	681	(+1)
8	PostmanHat	658	(-4)
9	Mikks	647	(+2)
10	AmisVelo	606	(+3)
	Collective_Wisdom	844
	Default	107
	Remco_en_zijn_vrienden	647

Yellow points

A few positional changes on GC, 12th being the highest, and two DNFs so close to Paris.

Rider	pts	Teams
CARAPAZ MONTENEGRO Richard Antonio	80	23
O'CONNOR Ben	14	3
QUINN Sean	12	7
CATTANEO Mattia	11	1
JOHANNESSEN Tobias Halland	10	2
ARENSMAN Thymen	8	2
TEJADA CANACUE Harold Alfonso	8	2
VAN GILS Maxim	8	9
PARET PEINTRE Aurélien	6	1
MARTINEZ Lenny	5	2
JORGENSON Matteo	-6	1
CASTRILLO ZAPATER Pablo	-10	3
ACKERMANN Pascal	-20	1
VAN WILDER Ilan	-130	6

Daily swings

Rank		Pts
1	Bminchow	102
2	AmisVelo	98
3	LosBrolin	97
3	Madrazo	97
3	Search	97
6	Hayneplane	94
7	Mikks	93
8	Lecko	88
9	QueenStagiaire	87
10	DJW	86
10	Triley36	86
12	Leadbelly	85
12	YellowKnight	85
14	Rufs	84
14	Schachus	84
16	JumboVismaFan	83
17	BicycleBoy	82
17	IlMaestro	82
17	Nightowl	82
20	SamuCuenca	79
21	Del1962	34
22	Onizuka999	23
23	RedheadDane	21
24	MagliaNera	19
25	TotalPackage	18
26	PostmanHat	10
27	SlowClimber	9
28	Vladimir	8
29	Kazistuta	6
30	PeteTurbo2	5
31	DJSprtsch	4
32	Armchair_Cyclist	1
32	Laarsland	1
34	Avoriaz	-1
34	BluesInTheBottle	-1
36	BsAsCycling	-5
36	EvansIsTheBest	-5
38	Dogboy	-15
39	Ingsve	-44
40	Squire	-48
41	DevilsElbow	-51
42	ZigZagWanderer	-119
43	Josedin	-126
44	Shakes	-138
	Collective_Wisdom	86
	Default	-126
	Remco_en_zijn_vrienden	138
	Torito_y_amigos	26

Standings

Van Wilder's fall seems to have cost Devi's Elbow third place. It's been a while since anyone has held onto that spot for long: can Los Brolin retain it to be on the final podium tomorrow?

Rank		Pts	+/-
1	Madrazo	1725	(-)
2	Leadbelly	1711	(-)
3	LosBrolin	1508	(+1)
4	Hayneplane	1497	(+1)
5	Search	1494	(+1)
6	QueenStagiaire	1473	(+1)
7	Triley36	1429	(+1)
8	DevilsElbow	1367	(-5)
9	Mikks	1359	(+1)
10	AmisVelo	1278	(+1)
11	Ingsve	1268	(-2)
12	JumboVismaFan	1244	(+1)
13	IlMaestro	1238	(+1)
14	BicycleBoy	1222	(+1)
15	YellowKnight	1222	(+1)
16	Nightowl	1215	(+1)
17	Bminchow	1195	(+2)
18	Laarsland	1176	(-6)
19	SamuCuenca	1170	(+1)
20	Del1962	1129	(-2)
21	Kazistuta	1083	(-)
22	DJW	1066	(+4)
23	PostmanHat	1055	(-)
24	Lecko	1015	(+3)
25	Schachus	995	(+4)
26	Squire	959	(-2)
27	Shakes	935	(-5)
28	Rufs	931	(+5)
29	EvansIsTheBest	920	(-1)
30	Onizuka999	910	(+1)
31	Dogboy	878	(-1)
32	Josedin	867	(-7)
33	Avoriaz	856	(-1)
34	TotalPackage	809	(+2)
35	BsAsCycling	802	(-)
36	MagliaNera	785	(+3)
37	Vladimir	781	(+1)
38	Armchair_Cyclist	776	(-1)
39	RedheadDane	773	(+1)
40	DJSprtsch	725	(+1)
41	ZigZagWanderer	695	(-7)
42	BluesInTheBottle	678	(-)
43	SlowClimber	531	(-)
44	PeteTurbo2	498	(-)
	Collective_Wisdom	1476
	Default	300
	Remco_en_zijn_vrienden	1792
	Torito_y_amigos	831

I guess a final stage with the Montmartre loops has more potential for changes than without, but probably not too much likely to switch this around tomorrow.

 

[Peteturbo2]

i think the race for the Lanterne Rouge is hotting up.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Stage 21
but, given the neutralisation, it is more a case of a post-Tour Montmartre Classic

Green points

Rider	pts	Teams
VAN DER POEL Mathieu	80	1
PHILIPSEN Jasper	50	0
PEDERSEN Mads	35	0
KANTER Max	25	1
KOOIJ Olav	15	15
MOHORIC Matej	10	2
PLUIMERS Rick	5	1
TURGIS Anthony	3	0
FRETIN Milan	2	3
RUSSO Clément	1	0

Daily gains

One very clear final winner, and it makes it a three in a row at the end of the race

Rank		Pts
1	YellowKnight (Van der Poel)	80
2	Dogboy (Kooij & Mohoric)	25
3	TotalPackage (Kooij and Fretin)	17
4=	Kooij teams	15
18=	JumboVismaFan, Lecko	10
20	SamuCuenca	5
21=	Onizuka999, Search	2
23=	No final boost to scores for 20 teams	0
	Collective_Wisdom	15
	Default	27

Standings

No last day drama in the top ten

Rank		Pts	+/-
1	Hayneplane	862	(-)
2	Triley36	829	(-)
3	Madrazo	725	(-)
4	Leadbelly	725	(-)
5	Kazistuta	724	(-)
6	QueenStagiaire	706	(-)
7	DevilsElbow	681	(-)
8	PostmanHat	673	(-)
9	Mikks	647	(-)
10	AmisVelo	621	(-)
11	DJSprtsch	615	(+1)
12	Ingsve	609	(+1)
13	BicycleBoy	608	(+1)
14	Nightowl	605	(+1)
15	Schachus	603	(-4)
16	Shakes	594	(+1)
17	IlMaestro	588	(-1)
18	Del1962	544	(-)
19	YellowKnight	517	(+11)
20	Search	516	(-1)
21	Dogboy	501	(-1)
22	Laarsland	486	(+2)
23	LosBrolin	476	(-3)
24	Avoriaz	476	(-4)
25	Rufs	474	(-2)
26	Lecko	466	(-)
27	Josedin	465	(+1)
28	Bminchow	460	(-3)
29	RedheadDane	455	(-2)
30	SamuCuenca	452	(-1)
31	TotalPackage	434	(+1)
32	JumboVismaFan	428	(-1)
33	DJW	386	(-)
34	Onizuka999	344	(-)
35	MagliaNera	333	(-)
36	Squire	310	(-)
37	BsAsCycling	297	(-)
38	Armchair_Cyclist	277	(-)
39	Vladimir	266	(-)
40	EvansIsTheBest	231	(-)
41	BluesInTheBottle	231	(-1)
42	ZigZagWanderer	213	(-)
43	SlowClimber	166	(-)
44	PeteTurbo2	144	(-)
	Collective_Wisdom	859
	Default	133
	Remco_en_zijn_vrienden	647
	Torito_y_amigos	277

So I guess that is congratulations to everyone for the virtual victory of the Collective Wisdom team, but particularly to Hayneplane for finishing top on the minor classification, to TRiley and Madrazo for making the podium, and sympathies to Leadbelly and Kazistuta for missing it by a hairsbreadth.

Yellow points

Thanks to the neutralisation, there is less than ever other than stage points. Anthony Turgis (unpicked) knocks Tobias Johanessen out of the tenth and final scoring place in the points classification, taking one point away from Redhead Dane and from Onizuka. And that's it.

So the daily swings only vary from the green gains above in that it is 1 point rather than 2 for Onizuka, and minus one for RhD.


So let's cut straight to the Final Standings

Rank		Pts	+/-
1	Madrazo	1740	(-)
2	Leadbelly	1726	(-)
3	Hayneplane	1512	(+1)
4	LosBrolin	1508	(-1)
5	Search	1496	(-)
6	QueenStagiaire	1473	(-)
7	Triley36	1444	(-)
8	DevilsElbow	1367	(-)
9	Mikks	1359	(-)
10	YellowKnight	1302	(+5)
11	AmisVelo	1293	(-1)
12	Ingsve	1283	(-1)
13	JumboVismaFan	1254	(-1)
14	IlMaestro	1238	(-1)
15	BicycleBoy	1237	(-1)
16	Nightowl	1230	(-)
17	Bminchow	1195	(-)
18	Laarsland	1191	(-)
19	SamuCuenca	1175	(-)
20	Del1962	1129	(-)
21	Kazistuta	1098	(-)
22	PostmanHat	1070	(+1)
23	DJW	1066	(-1)
24	Lecko	1025	(-)
25	Schachus	995	(-)
26	Squire	959	(-)
27	Shakes	950	(-)
28	Rufs	931	(-)
29	EvansIsTheBest	920	(-)
30	Onizuka999	911	(-)
31	Dogboy	903	(-)
32	Josedin	882	(-)
33	Avoriaz	856	(-)
34	TotalPackage	826	(-)
35	BsAsCycling	802	(-)
36	MagliaNera	785	(-)
37	Vladimir	781	(-)
38	Armchair_Cyclist	776	(-)
39	RedheadDane	772	(-)
40	DJSprtsch	740	(-)
41	ZigZagWanderer	695	(-)
42	BluesInTheBottle	678	(-)
43	SlowClimber	531	(-)
44	PeteTurbo2	498	(-)
	Collective_Wisdom	1491
	Default	327
	Remco_en_zijn_vrienden	1792
	Torito_y_amigos	831

For what it's worth, Sean Quinn finished in front of Carlos Verona again today, so there is no real question about what if the clock had been running. The similarity of the top two teams made for a different sort of intrigue to this game.

Madrazo is so often the master of being top of the popularity table at the beginning of these games: this time he is top of the final table. Another player who has been a long term regular, Leadbelly, was second, and Hayneplane (actually top of the popularity this time around) gets a last moment step up to the podium to add to his green win.
And an extraordinary late run (2nd, 1st, 1st and 1st in the daily swings) gets Yellow Knight (one of the lowest teams in the popularity ranking) from 35th after stage 17 to a top ten finish.



Thanks to all players, to CQ and First Cycling for the data, and to the riders for their unwitting contributions to our game.

I'm not sure that it will be tomorrow, but I shall extract the key numbers from the spreadsheet some time soon.

 

[Squire]

Thanks for running the game! And congratulations to MADRAZO!

My main takeaways from playing one of the shorter CQ games for the first time in years (and spending 2 minutes on my team) are that Belgian riders are not to be trusted to finish the race and that these games are quite random, with Lipowitz wiping out half the top teams for example. And by picking Guillaume Martin I doomed his streak of finishing in the top 16 of each of the last 10 GTs he has finished.

A total of 1614 points spread across three riders DNFed for me, and Carapaz was responsible for 233 out of my 310 green points.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

With four DNFs (although Merlier hardly counts) in a year with relatively few game-relevant DNFs other than Lipowitz, I think I did pretty decently to make the top-10. I also don't see where the points would have come from to win anyway, it's hard to call @MADRAZO anything other than a deserving winner.

these games are quite random

The spring classics game is a lot less random and a lot more strategic, and I promise I'm not just saying that because it's the only one I've won.

 

[Ilmaestro99]

Can't complain about a top 15 with my pretty mediocre team and multiple dnfs.

Congratulations @MADRAZO

 

[EvansIsTheBest]

Congrats to @MADRAZO on a well deserved victory. Thanks to @Armchair Cyclist for another perfectly organized edition of the game. Shame on my riders for sucking so much (should have staid with my initial Seixas/Carapaz/Kuss idea instead of doing the 100% French team).

 

[hayneplane]

Delighted that my dual sprinter strategy and backing Carapaz paid off handsomely for the Green Jersey and a place on the final podium albeit a long way off the top 2.

Would I have been a chance if Ayuso and Seixas had swapped results?

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Would I have been a chance if Ayuso and Seixas had swapped results?

You would have managed to fit in the narrow gap between Madrazo and Leadbelly.

 

[hayneplane]

@Armchair Cyclist have you been able to crunch the numbers on what would have been the optimal team within the budget.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

@Armchair Cyclist have you been able to crunch the numbers on what would have been the optimal team within the budget.

Should have time to do so tomorrow.

 

[dogboy]

Thanks for running the game! It added color to the race and I liked reading everyone's comments. Cheers everyone

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Top scorers
With the three top scorers being either unaffordable or considered too expensive, I expected the scores to be much lower than typical in this edition

Recent winning scores:
2021 Leadbelly 1893
2022 Northerner 2303
2023 PostmanHat 1855
2024 Hfgon1 1483
2025 DJW 1953

So this year's top score (1740) is not terribly low, considering. In 2024, 4 of the top 5 scorers were unpicked (and he wasn't picked by the winner)

But I am fairly sure that 8th on GC as highest relevant scorer has never happened before.

cost		stage	GC	Yellow	Pts + KoM	TOTAL	%age RoI	teams
5078	POGACAR Tadej	583	600	320	60	1563	30.8	0
2228	EVENEPOEL Remco	353	450	0	18	821	36.8	0
3189	DEL TORO ROMERO Isaac	248	380	0	7	635	19.9	0
544	CARAPAZ MONTENEGRO Richard Antonio	233	200	0	80	513	94.3	23
1601	SEIXAS Paul	167	320	0	3	490	30.6	18
1176	MARTINEZ Lenny	79	290	0	10	379	32.2	2
1119	SKJELMOSE JENSEN Mattias	81	260	0	0	341	30.5	0
1613	PHILIPSEN Jasper	256	20	0	50	326	20.2	0
637	KOOIJ Olav	267	20	0	15	302	47.4	15
857	MERLIER Tim	275	0	0	0	275	32.1	16
862	AYUSO PESQUERA Juan	42	230	0	0	272	31.6	23
1646	PIDCOCK Thomas	74	180	0	0	254	15.4	1
1109	PEDERSEN Mads	143	20	0	80	243	21.9	0
1229	JOHANNESSEN Tobias Halland	107	130	0	2	239	19.4	2
581	KUSS Sepp	81	120	0	25	226	38.9	0
1320	SCHMID Mauro	180	39	0	0	219	16.6	0
3947	VINGEGAARD HANSEN Jonas	175	0	40	0	215	5.4	0
805	GIRMAY HAILU Biniam	130	20	0	35	185	23.0	5
1379	VAN DER POEL Mathieu	161	20	0	0	181	13.1	1
610	JEGAT Jordan	7	160	0	0	167	27.4	1
706	WAERENSKJOLD Søren	131	20	0	5	156	22.1	0
507	KANTER Max	107	20	0	25	152	30.0	1
432	VOISARD Yannis	0	140	0	0	140	32.4	0
559	SIMMONS Quinn	57	82	0	0	139	24.9	0
634	PIGANZOLI Davide	20	110	0	0	130	20.5	0
924	HINDLEY Jai	8	100	0	1	109	11.8	0
580	TEJADA CANACUE Harold Alfonso	51	57	0	0	108	18.6	2
866	JORGENSON Matteo	55	49	0	0	104	12.0	1
	And those scoring <100 but >40% return
46	QUINN Sean	6	77	0	0	83	180.4	7
160	ARTZ Huub	51	20	0	0	71	44.4	1
99	VERONA QUINTANILLA Carlos	6	63	0	0	69	69.7	4
45	MARSMAN Tim	1	20	0	0	21	46.7	1
15	ALLEGAERT Piet	0	20	0	0	20	133.3	8
40	DHONDT Robbe	0	20	0	0	20	50.0	1
42	HESSMANN Michel	0	20	0	0	20	47.6	1
45	KIRSCH Alex	0	20	0	0	20	44.4	1
44	WALKER Max	0	20	0	0	20	45.5	2

Carapaz was the key rider: the top 17 all have him, none of the bottom 16 do.

Seixas was perhaps the most important unknown: he was expensive, more so than Ayuso+Carapaz, and although he didn't quite do what the hype suggested, 5 of the top 6 (not Hayneplane) picked him.

Lenny Martinez was not quite enough to get YellowKnight into the top ten.

Merlier DNFed, but scoring more than the slightly more expensive Ayuso who was picked by all of the top 5, he can scarcely be considered a miss as a pick.

I have commented on the similarity of Madrazo's and Leadbelly's teams: they had an overlap of 5, but the podium all shared 4: Ayuso, Kooij, Carapaz and (although he was not the keystone of any scoring) Van Eetvelt.

The impeccable picks were
Evenepoel
Carapaz
Kanter
Voisard
Promhomme
Benoot
Quinn
Marsman
Allegaert


The most serious mispick was the unfortunate Lipowitz. If we allow ourselves to stray into counterfactuals, and allocate him the 260 points of 6th place (without deducting points from anyone else, or considering that stage points may have been different), then Amis Velo would have come third (but still a long way adrift of the top two), and BicycleBoy and NightOwl would have made the top ten.

Best possible team
It turns out that Evenepoel was the rider we should have gone for. My suspicion is that no-one seriously considered it.

name	Price	Total Pts	Popularity
EVENEPOEL Remco	2228	821	0
CARAPAZ MONTENEGRO Richard Antonio	544	513	23
KOOIJ Olav	637	302	15
BENOOT Tiesj	270	90	0
QUINN Sean	46	83	7
ARTZ Huub	160	71	1
VERONA QUINTANILLA Carlos	99	69	4
ALLEGAERT Piet	15	20	8
	3999	1969	58

Madrazo's score is 88.4% of that score, a particularly high mark.

The best possible without Evenepoel (ie, that we might have been expected to guess) is

name	Price	Total Pts	Popularity
CARAPAZ MONTENEGRO Richard Antonio	544	513	23
MARTINEZ Lenny	1176	379	2
KOOIJ Olav	637	302	15
MERLIER Tim	857	275	16
KUSS Sepp	581	226	0
QUINN Sean	46	83	7
VERONA QUINTANILLA Carlos	99	69	4
MARSMAN Tim	45	21	1
	3985	1868	68

Best possible green team

Best possible team would have scored 918, best without Evenepoel would have beaten that with 948, but the greenest team of all would be

name	Price	stage pts	Total Pts	Popularity
CARAPAZ MONTENEGRO Richard Antonio	544	233	513	23
KOOIJ Olav	637	267	302	15
MERLIER Tim	857	275	275	16
WAERENSKJOLD Søren	706	131	156	0
KANTER Max	507	107	152	1
GARCIA PIERNA Raul	318	45	86	0
VAN GILS Maxim	253	28	83	9
ARTZ Huub	160	51	71	1
	3982	1137	1638	65

Collective ignorance
Gets a refreshingly mediocre score

name	Price	stage pts	Total Pts
EVENEPOEL Remco	2228	353	821
KUSS Sepp	581	81	226
VOISARD Yannis	432	0	140
GARCIA PIERNA Raul	318	45	86
BENOOT Tiesj	270	2	90
DILLIER Silvan	75	1	21
DURBRIDGE Luke	50	0	20
VAN LERBERGHE Bert	45	0	0
	3999	482	1404

And finally, the best possible team without any of Madrazo's picks:

name	Price	stage pts	Total Pts	Popularity
EVENEPOEL Remco	2228	353	821	0
MERLIER Tim	857	275	275	16
KUSS Sepp	581	81	226	0
VERONA QUINTANILLA Carlos	99	6	69	4
RUSSO Clément	112	20	40	0
TRATNIK Jan	67	3	23	3
ALLEGAERT Piet	15	0	20	8
DHONDT Robbe	40	0	20	1
	3999	738	1494	32

which he beat in the main classification, but not for stage points (although it was selected on the basis of main points.

 

[mikks]

Thank you for the game. Of my team (AYUSO, MERLIER,VAUQUELIN,CARAPAZ, PARET PEINTRE, VAN GILS, FOSS, OTRUBA) Carapaz was my first pick. He was probably the only rider I thought was an obvious choice. Merlier also came easily and, if I remember correctly, I did not even consider Kooij.

My two most expensive failures, Vauquelin and Paret-Peintre, seemed like reasonable choices at the time. Without Onley, Vauquelin could do his own thing, and while other steppers are busy sprinting, Paret-Peintre would have the freedom to have fun. Both actually raced more or less as I imagined; the luck, level or form just was not there.

Foss was another failure. I do not really know why I picked him. I guess I thought he was in good form, could get into a couple of decent breakaways and finish somewhere between 10th and 20th in the GC.

Did not think about Van Gils too much, just wanted him in. Otruba was a filler, had to spend the remaining points.

The other riders I seriously considered were Seixas and to a lesser extent, Lipo, but both were expensive, and picking them would have required major changes to the team. Ayuso seemed like a more reasonable choice and safer ROI.. At one point, I tried to fit Van Eetvelt in, but was not able to find the right team composition.

At the end relatively risk free, a bit above average team.


Compared to spring classics, Tour game is much more staitgtforward and some what easier.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Effect of DNFs

For a while now, I have tried to quantify the bad luck of riders that did not finish the race as their cost take away the points they gained. That seems to be overstating the scale of losses, so I'm trialling a new measurement, of points scored subtracted from 1/3 of the cost of a rider. A decently performing team, not necessarily challenging for the win, might expect to score in the region of 1300 points, so let's call that an expected return of 1/3 of cost per rider. Obviously it would be possible for this to result in a negative score, but I won't allow that.
It might be considered fairer to work out something based on how a rider was actually doing and what potential rewards and pitfalls stood in front of him, but frankly, that seems far too complicated and subjective. But I reckon this is a better metric of how much bad luck we have had than what I did previously.

rider	cost	cost/3	pts earned	net cost vs expectation	"old" netcost	teams
LIPOWITZ Florian	1460	487	63	424	1397	11
UIJTDEBROEKS Cian	851	284	0	284	851	1
VAN WILDER Ilan	506	169	0	169	506	6
BERTHET Clément	282	94	0	94	282	1
BIESTERBOS Frits	281	94	0	94	281	1
TRAEEN Torstein	388	129	43	86	345	1
PARRA CUERDA Jose Felix	257	86	0	86	257	4
DE KLEIJN Arvid	232	77	0	77	232	8
ACKERMANN Pascal	202	67	6	61	196	1
RUBIO REYES Einer Augusto	181	60	0	60	181	9
GAVIRIA RENDON Fernando	178	59	2	57	176	4
DEBRUYNE Ramses	209	70	16	54	193	3
CRAPS Lars	105	35	0	35	105	5
AFFINI Edoardo	93	31	20	11	73	1
MERLIER Tim	857	286	275	11	582	16

So on that basis, the 'bad luck' table is:

	non finishers	net cost	Game placing
TotalPackage	3	561	34
Squire	3	538	26
Rufs	3	512	28
DJSprtsch	3	512	40
AmisVelo	2	484	11
Armchair_Cyclist	2	484	38
SlowClimber	2	459	43
Schachus	2	434	25
BicycleBoy	1	424	15
BluesInTheBottle	1	424	42
DJW	1	424	23
Nightowl	1	424	16
Josedin	4	385	32
DevilsElbow	4	300	8
Shakes	3	257	27
Avoriaz	5	241	33
ZigZagWanderer	2	222	41
Ingsve	2	204	12
Kazistuta	3	148	21
Dogboy	3	129	31
RedheadDane	2	97	39
Onizuka999	1	94	30
Laarsland	1	94	18
QueenStagiaire	2	88	6
BsAsCycling	1	86	35
Hayneplane	2	71	3
IlMaestro	2	71	14
MagliaNera	2	71	36
Triley36	2	68	7
PostmanHat	2	64	22
Bminchow	1	60	17
Search	1	57	5
LosBrolin	1	35	4
Del1962	1	11	20
Mikks	1	11	9
EvansIsTheBest	0	0	29
JumboVismaFan	0	0	13
Leadbelly	0	0	2
Lecko	0	0	24
Madrazo	0	0	1
PeteTurbo2	0	0	44
SamuCuenca	0	0	19
Vladimir	0	0	37
YellowKnight	0	0	10
Collective_Wisdom	2	71
Default	2	334
Remco_en_zijn_vrienden	0	0
Torito_y_amigos	2	95

Yes: the tables are now formatted differently: the Excel to BBCode converter that I had been using seems to have gone weird, so I am using a different one

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

4 seasons game with 3 "seasons" gone

Coming into the Tour, Armchair Cyclist was in the lead, with DJW just 56 points behind, and then a drop of more that 600 points to the rest of the field, led by Devil's Elbow.

But Armchair had a fairly disastrous game with only Seixas getting serious points, DJW performed a bit better but only Ayuso and Carapaz really generating points, so going into the last leg, La Vuelta, the table has become much closer. Devil's Elbow remains the closest, but many more are in range if both pacesetters fail again in Spain.

rank	team	Spring Classics	Giro	Tour	Vuelta	Total	+/-
1	DJW	2222	1479	1066		4767	(+1)
2	Armchair_Cyclist	2307	1450	776		4533	(-1)
3	DevilsElbow	1709	1374	1367		4450	(-)
4	Leadbelly	1972	704	1726		4402	(+3)
5	QueenStagiaire	1922	900	1473		4295	(-)
6	Madrazo	1795	751	1740		4286	(+5)
7	Triley36	1766	976	1444		4186	(-1)
8	Search	1898	571	1496		3965	(+6)
9	Ingsve	2220	333	1283		3836	(+1)
10	AmisVelo	1871	611	1293		3775	(+3)
11	Mikks	1469	936	1359		3764	(+5)
12	DJSprtsch	1830	1179	740		3749	(-8)
13	Shakes	1481	1134	950		3565	(-5)
14	Del1962	1528	861	1129		3518	(+3)
15	RedheadDane	1689	922	772		3383	(-6)
16	Vladimir	1549	982	781		3312	(-4)
17	SamuCuenca	1380	749	1175		3304	(+2)
18	EvansIsTheBest	1703	526	920		3149	(-)
19	SlowClimber	1521	946	531		2998	(-4)
20	Josedin	1066	884	882		2832	(-)
21	LosBrolin	495	815	1508		2818	(+3)
22	Bminchow	596	981	1195		2772	(-)
23	Kazistuta	1127	417	1098		2642	(-)
24	Rufs	1126	581	931		2638	(-3)
25	BluesInTheBottle	600	680	678		1958	(-)
	Collective_Wisdom	1807	989	1491		4287

So unless there is some other dataset anyone would like me to investigate from the spreadsheet, that sort of wraps up this game with an implicit reminder to be ready for the next one in a few weeks time.

Thanks for playing along, and especially for comments during the game, that make the thread more interesting than just columns of numbers. (8 pages this time: one year recently it was just 2, but I assume my data input was the same)