5 monuments - Cancellara or Gilbert?

[Bumeington]

Who is more likely to win all 5 monuments, Cancellara or Gilbert? It's currently 3-1 to the Canc and both have stated it as a goal.

 

[nvpacchi]

I started a thread back in July asking the same question. there may be some good points made in this thread, but it never hurts to rehash the same arguments

http://forum.cyclingnews.com/showthread.php?t=9202


Gilbert for the fact that I can never see Canc winning LBL or Lombardia.

Gilbert may never win PR but, but the odds are slightly higher than the aforementioned

oh and the fact that Gilbert's Belgian helps his chances with the cycling gods

 

[Moondance]

I said Gilbert, if I have to chose (because really I think neither) because I really can't see The Canc winning Liege or Lombardy... Now if The Canc really puts his mind to it, loses weight, practices his climbing at the expense of everything else, he might come close, but in the end I will still see him coming up short to the real classics specialists.

Gilbert on the other hand... Well, I really can't see him winning Roubaix. Not as long as Boonen and The Canc are at their peak. Obviously Sanremo would be tricky for Gilbert to win as well, but it is well possible to outdo the sprinters, as The Canc and Pozzato have shown.

So basically I don't see The Canc winning 2 monuments, Gilbert 1, ergo vote for Gilbert... But, again, neither is the most likely option.

EDIT: Lol, I basically double-posted nvpacchi... My bad

 

[JPM London]

Cancellara will do it in the coming season...

 

[jens_attacks]

i would like both of these guys to win all 5.i think cancellara can fix the problem this year.it will be epic.gillbert only in 4 or 5 years.

 

[The Hitch]

Cancellara. He has the right way of doing it.

Focus on PR in 06. Success
Focus on MSR in 08 Success.
He went into this years Flanders saying it was his goal for the season. Bam, no one else stood a chance.

2ndly and most importantly- Canc has Milan San Remo. Thats the hardest one for both.

What are his chances for LBL and GDL? Sure he was an appaling climber this year, barely lasting 10 seconds for Schleck when the road went uphill, dropped in Geelong . But as i recall in 09 he won the TDS. He was according to many the best guy in Mendrisio, 3 days after owning the world tt. That was a hilly course, he had no problems with the course.

Hes doing it right. Most people would say ride Paris Nice then take a chance at LBL. Canc sees the bigger picture. It has to be all about LBL, and i think if he focuses on it (with a little clinic help) he will be able to ride away from any group in LBL. Gilbert on the other hand needs to stop top 10 ing every classic he rides.

As for Phillipe. think he can, but PR and MSR are just going to be too difficult. The hills in RVV let him do his thing, but PR, you need to be solid on flat cobbles throughout. and MST, as i said elsewhere, where will he attack? Hes a better climber than Fabian, but MSR suits Fabian because he can just tt away from everyone on the Poggio and they dont have a chance. I dont think Gilbert can do that on the descent. He needs to go on cipressa to make the most of the climbing advantage he has on sprinters.

The other problem for Gilbert is that, even though with RVV and LBL its only a matter of time, he does still have to win them. That will mean sacrificing MSR and possibly PariS Roubaix untill thats done. I know he has 1 year on Cancellara. But i dont see him winning both next year. Probably LBL. Then he has too focus on RVV.

 

[El Pistolero]

Cancellara. He has the right way of doing it.

Focus on PR in 06. Success
Focus on MSR in 08 Success.
He went into this years Flanders saying it was his goal for the season. Bam, no one else stood a chance.

2ndly and most importantly- Canc has Milan San Remo. Thats the hardest one for both.

What are his chances for LBL and GDL? Sure he was an appaling climber this year, barely lasting 10 seconds for Schleck when the road went uphill, dropped in Geelong . But as i recall in 09 he won the TDS. He was according to many the best guy in Mendrisio, 3 days after owning the world tt. That was a hilly course, he had no problems with the course.

Hes doing it right. Most people would say ride Paris Nice then take a chance at LBL. Canc sees the bigger picture. It has to be all about LBL, and i think if he focuses on it (with a little clinic help) he will be able to ride away from any group in LBL. Gilbert on the other hand needs to stop top 10 ing every classic he rides.

As for Phillipe. think he can, but PR and MSR are just going to be too difficult. The hills in RVV let him do his thing, but PR, you need to be solid on flat cobbles throughout. and MST, as i said elsewhere, where will he attack? Hes a better climber than Fabian, but MSR suits Fabian because he can just tt away from everyone on the Poggio and they dont have a chance. I dont think Gilbert can do that on the descent. He needs to go on cipressa to make the most of the climbing advantage he has on sprinters.

The other problem for Gilbert is that, even though with RVV and LBL its only a matter of time, he does still have to win them. That will mean sacrificing MSR and possibly PariS Roubaix untill thats done. I know he has 1 year on Cancellara. But i dont see him winning both next year. Probably LBL. Then he has too focus on RVV.

He's focusing on RvV next year.

 

[The Hitch]

He's focusing on RvV next year.

Good. So hell win it. Dont know if he can carry that form to LBL then though.

And it doesnt solve the MSR Pr problem. He has to win those, and can only do that after RVV and LBL

 

[El Pistolero]

Cancellara. He has the right way of doing it.

Focus on PR in 06. Success
Focus on MSR in 08 Success.
He went into this years Flanders saying it was his goal for the season. Bam, no one else stood a chance.

2ndly and most importantly- Canc has Milan San Remo. Thats the hardest one for both.

What are his chances for LBL and GDL? Sure he was an appaling climber this year, barely lasting 10 seconds for Schleck when the road went uphill, dropped in Geelong . But as i recall in 09 he won the TDS. He was according to many the best guy in Mendrisio, 3 days after owning the world tt. That was a hilly course, he had no problems with the course.

Hes doing it right. Most people would say ride Paris Nice then take a chance at LBL. Canc sees the bigger picture. It has to be all about LBL, and i think if he focuses on it (with a little clinic help) he will be able to ride away from any group in LBL. Gilbert on the other hand needs to stop top 10 ing every classic he rides.

As for Phillipe. think he can, but PR and MSR are just going to be too difficult. The hills in RVV let him do his thing, but PR, you need to be solid on flat cobbles throughout. and MST, as i said elsewhere, where will he attack? Hes a better climber than Fabian, but MSR suits Fabian because he can just tt away from everyone on the Poggio and they dont have a chance. I dont think Gilbert can do that on the descent. He needs to go on cipressa to make the most of the climbing advantage he has on sprinters.

The other problem for Gilbert is that, even though with RVV and LBL its only a matter of time, he does still have to win them. That will mean sacrificing MSR and possibly PariS Roubaix untill thats done. I know he has 1 year on Cancellara. But i dont see him winning both next year. Probably LBL. Then he has too focus on RVV.

He's focusing on RvV next year.

 

[El Pistolero]

Good. So hell win it. Dont know if he can carry that form to LBL then though.

And it doesnt solve the MSR Pr problem. He has to win those, and can only do that after RVV and LBL

Well, besides Cancellara, Philippe Gilbert is probably the most likely one to win MSR by beating the sprinters.

He's skipping MSR next year though.

He was third at RvV and third at LBL this year. He was arguably the strongest in this year's LBL though, so I reckon he can carry his RvV form to LBL.

 

[L'arriviste]

I think they both could do the big 5. I thought Cancellara couldn't take Lombardia or LBL but others convinced me otherwise on another thread.

So for me the question is who will do it first. And that's probably Cancellara.

 

[Kvinto]

It's simply: Cancellara won 3 of them, Gilbert - only one
I really believe that both of them can do this, but Fabian can do this faster.

 

[nvpacchi]

Canc has never raced LBL or Lombardia. Not saying he can't win either, but I feel he needs to get his feet wet in both races before he can consider contending in them.

Gilbert's been podium or top 10 in 3 classics that are eluding him. Therefore on any given day Gilbert has a better chance to grab a RvV, MSR, or LBL victory than Cancellara has in winning either LBL or GdL.

In two years this may be a different story, but we should wait to see how Canc performs in the hilly classics before drawing conclusions.

 

[Kvinto]

Cancellara can do well at LBL and Lombardia. These races don’t have the mountains that can hold him back. The only problem is that he can’t sprint like Valverde, Gilbert or Kolobnev.

 

[Moondance]

Cancellara can do well at LBL and Lombardia. These races don’t have the mountains that can hold him back. The only problem is that he can’t sprint like Valverde, Gilbert or Kolobnev.

Kolobnev couldn't sprint well if his life depended on it.

 

[El Pistolero]

It's simply: Cancellara won 3 of them, Gilbert - only one
I really believe that both of them can do this, but Fabian can do this faster.

Don't forget that Gilbert was on a "crappy" team till 2009.

Ever since he's with OPL he really broke through.

 

[luckyboy]

Can't see Cancellara winning La Doyenne. As someone said, Gilbert has been up there in all of them, so I'd say him (and hope).

 

[Kvinto]

Kolobnev couldn't sprint well if his life depended on it.

maybe it's because I like Kolobnev, but I think he can do classic sprints better then Cancellara

Don't forget that Gilbert was on a "crappy" team till 2009.

Ever since he's with OPL he really broke through.

I remember this, but the only thing I've told is that Cancellara has the great chance to win 5 monuments earlier then Gilbert.

 

[Kvinto]

Can't see Cancellara winning La Doyenne. As someone said, Gilbert has been up there in all of them, so I'd say him (and hope).

I think this is not harder then Gilbert for Roubaix

 

[luckyboy]

I think Gilbert has shown more on the cobbles than Cance has in the hills.

 

[la.margna]

It's simply: Cancellara won 3 of them, Gilbert - only one
I really believe that both of them can do this, but Fabian can do this faster.

Agree. both are highly likely to collect all five, particularly if (like in 2011) they both focus on different races. However, for Gilbert, MSR will be very difficult and also PR needs first to be won, on the other hand Lombardia with the Sormano will be a huge challenge for Spartacus, whereas the 2009 profile wouldn't have been a problem. As mentioned here it will be pretty interesting how Cance's focus on LBL will turn out. Fäbu in Mendrisio shape can't be stopped in LBL 2011, no question.

 

[Mich78BEL]

Cancellara already has 3 of the 5, Gilbert only one so Cancellara...

 

[ttrider]

Gilbert will probably win LBL and Flanders at some point, but im not sure about MSR Hushovd, Haussler or Friere will always be there and it just never really seems to favour an individual break (with a few exceptions) and Gilbert wont peak for it as more important goals to come. He ll also never compete in paris roubais, sorry he just is never going to touch a spartacus or Boonen built person or type

Cancellara so long as he gets over Sormano can surely attack the lombardia descent, i rekkon he can do it but lbl? Not sure i just think he doesnt have the climbing ability and no where else to make up for it

so cancellara for me but realistically niether

 

[mr. tibbs]

Gilbert.

If he targets PR, he has a chance to win it. His biggest obstacle is MSR, which he’d probably have to win on the Poggio. Though I don’t think this is very likely, I’m even less convinced that Cancellara can ever win LBL.

 

[The Hitch]

Agree. both are highly likely to collect all five.

I dont know. Only 3 people in history have done all 5. If Sean Kelly couldnt do all 5 i certainatly wouldnt say its highly likely that either Canc or Gilbert will do it.

Fäbu in Mendrisio shape can't be stopped in LBL 2011, no question

Yep. Its a point those who say Canc doesnt have a hope at LBL should adress. Even if just to say that LBL is dependent more on luck or whatever.