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Abu Dhabi Tour 2018, Feb 21-25

Who will win on Jebel Hafeet sunday?

  • Rui Costa

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Ilnur Zakarin

    Votes: 3 5.7%
  • Tom Dumoulin

    Votes: 7 13.2%
  • Miguel Angel Lopez

    Votes: 8 15.1%
  • Alejandro Valverde

    Votes: 24 45.3%
  • Ion Izaguirre

    Votes: 1 1.9%
  • Domenico Pozzovivo

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Alexandre Geniez

    Votes: 3 5.7%
  • Simon Yates

    Votes: 4 7.5%
  • Someone else

    Votes: 3 5.7%

  • Total voters
    53
While awaiting the "real" cycling season start this saturday, let's take a look towards the last early season stage race in the Middle East, Abu Dhabi Tour.
A known recipe, but this year spicing things up with a short time trial, which should prove decisive.

The route:

Stage 1-3 is the sprinters festival. No profiles needed for that (I couldn't find any anyway:)

Stage 4 is a new implementation, a 12,6 km time trial. According to the overview it doesn't look very technical, so should favor the power time trialers.

j97k91.png


Stage 5 is the usual finish at Jebel Hafeet after a long flat drag until the climb itself.

jebel-hafeet.jpg


As Abu Dhabi is a World Tour race, the stars are lining up left and right:

Sprinters:

The sprinters will have a blast the first three days, so top guys like Cavendish,Kristoff, Greipel, Ewan, Kittel, Viviani and the Italian "second/third-string Army" Minali, Guardini & Bonifazio along with McLay, Van Poppel and Bauhaus will fancy their chances. Interesting to see Halvorsen back racing after his crash in the TDU criterium as well.

GC contenders:

Our of last years top7 only Mollema isn't lining up this year.

Rui Costa and his UAE team have obviously made the race a big goal, and he knows how to climb Hafeet. Costa probably doesn't like the inclusion of a time trial, but when on form (which he seems to be after Oman) he can hold his ground.

Ilnur Zakarin is racing his first race of the season and is a big question mark. With three easy days to get some racing miles, he oughta be fine when the weekend decides the race.

Tom Dumoulin, who also races for the first time this year, opened his season last year with a solid showing on Jebel Hafeet and should have a field time with this years time trial. Must be the Major favorite (pun intended).

From last years top guys Aru, Majka, Ulissi and Alaphilippe isn't particularly known for their time trial abilities and have to fare very well sunday to get on the podium. Pozzovivio always surprises me, so he might do a fantastic time trial.

Ion Izaguirre must be Tom Dumoulins biggest threat, at least on paper. But how is his form?
Alexandre Geniez has been on fire so far and is a big outsider. The same could be said of Valverde, but he'll likely bag Hafeet easily, so much depends on his time trial. I don't think the route is technical enough for him.
On paper Brent Bookwalter would like the Hafeet climb and time trial. He didn't impress in Volta Comunitat Valenciana though.
Miguel Angel Lopez will lose too much time saturday, but'll be in the mix for a top3 sunday.

EDIT: Totally forgot about Rohan Dennis. He is well-prepared and will most likely win the time trial. Time will tell how much time he'll concede sunday.

Other names worth mentioning: Yates, Ciccone, Formolo, Valls Ferri, Mas, Rolland, Woods, Powless, Castroviejo, Geoghean Hart, Kelderman (actually he might be Dumoulins biggest threat:) and Brambilla.

A lot of the above mentioned guys start their season with this race, which'll mean big question marks surrounding them.

Provisional startlist at: http://www.cyclingfever.com/editie.html?detp=view&_ap=startlijst&editie_idd=MjgzNTM=
 
My opinion is the ITT has ruined the flavor of the race and is an unnecessary addition - Abu Dhabi is a showdown for the sprinters, while the Jabeel climb decides the GC - Dumoulin is undoubtedly if in decent shape, though Valverde is not to be underestimated.
 
Re:

yaco said:
My opinion is the ITT has ruined the flavor of the race and is an unnecessary addition
We have Oman for a race with hills, a decent climb and no time trial. And Abu Dhabi for a race with a decent climb and a short time trial. Looks fine to me, some diversity is always good.

Also, Lopez can time trial quite well, so i wouldn't count him out.
 
Re: Re:

fauniera said:
yaco said:
My opinion is the ITT has ruined the flavor of the race and is an unnecessary addition
We have Oman for a race with hills, a decent climb and no time trial. And Abu Dhabi for a race with a decent climb and a short time trial. Looks fine to me, some diversity is always good.

Also, Lopez can time trial quite well, so i wouldn't count him out.

Lopez has TT'ed well in lower races but not yet at WT level.
 
Re:

yaco said:
My opinion is the ITT has ruined the flavor of the race and is an unnecessary addition -

Yes, I unfortunately agree. Did Dennis 'just' have his wedding or was there also a honeymoon? IF he is serious about this race he can also win it.
 
I don't condone Valverde participating in fake races like this, I would much rather have seen him battle Wellens in Andalucía. That said I will still be sitting clued to my PC when Jebel Hafeet comes around. Vamos campeón!
 
Re: Re:

liamito said:
yaco said:
My opinion is the ITT has ruined the flavor of the race and is an unnecessary addition -

Yes, I unfortunately agree. Did Dennis 'just' have his wedding or was there also a honeymoon? IF he is serious about this race he can also win it.

Ah - I didn't realise Dennis was riding Abu Dhabi - The shorter TT plays into the hands of Dennis who should be the favorite.
 
Mar 19, 2017
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Re: Re:

yaco said:
liamito said:
yaco said:
My opinion is the ITT has ruined the flavor of the race and is an unnecessary addition -

Yes, I unfortunately agree. Did Dennis 'just' have his wedding or was there also a honeymoon? IF he is serious about this race he can also win it.

Ah - I didn't realise Dennis was riding Abu Dhabi - The shorter TT plays into the hands of Dennis who should be the favorite.
Dennis and Dumoulin may have 20+ seconds ahead of other GC riders after ITT.
 
Re: Re:

yaco said:
fauniera said:
yaco said:
My opinion is the ITT has ruined the flavor of the race and is an unnecessary addition
We have Oman for a race with hills, a decent climb and no time trial. And Abu Dhabi for a race with a decent climb and a short time trial. Looks fine to me, some diversity is always good.

Also, Lopez can time trial quite well, so i wouldn't count him out.

Lopez has TT'ed well in lower races but not yet at WT level.
https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/tour-de-suisse/2016/stage-8
 
Re: Re:

Anderis said:
yaco said:
fauniera said:
yaco said:
My opinion is the ITT has ruined the flavor of the race and is an unnecessary addition
We have Oman for a race with hills, a decent climb and no time trial. And Abu Dhabi forD a race with a decent climb and a short time trial. Looks fine to me, some diversity is always good.

Also, Lopez can time trial quite well, so i wouldn't count him out.

Lopez has TT'ed well in lower races but not yet at WT level.
https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/tour-de-suisse/2016/stage-8

The Abu Dhabi ITT seems to be pan flat, while from memory the Suisse time trial was a bit hilly - Lopez has done well if can finish within 25 seconds of Dennis and Dumoulin.
 
Yes, the Suisse time trial was very hilly, not an indication of TT ability.

Looking through Lopez's career, he seems to avoid flat TTs like the plague, he rode almost none. The few he has ridden either have a lot of climbing, are prologues, or the 40+km one at the Vuelta. So we have none we can compare to this one
 
Valverde can ride a good TT, however, until he gets on course, esp with this being his first ITT after the crash who knows what his mental state will be with the ITT. That it's short is definitely helpful for Valverde in that it's flat and not very technical. A technical and hilly course he can put down a TT that's better than most GC riders (if his mind is right). The big question is what kind of condition are the better TTers in at this point in the season. That could have a say in who wins GC here as well.

I also would prefer he wasn't at this race and had gone to Andalucia instead.
 
Seems there is my answer.
“I recently got married, so this trip to Abu Dhabi is like a honeymoon for me. After my wedding in Australia, I spent one week in Girona, Spain, so I went from heat to cold and back to heat again. The Time Trial is only 12km long, so I don’t think it’s gonna play that much importance in the final result.”

I think he underestimates the time differences after the TT though.