After one week of racing, who will win the Giro 100?

[SafeBet]

First week behind us and the gaps are already pretty big.

1) Nairo Quintana: I thought he'd peak in the third week, but boy what a performance on Blockhaus. He'll likely lose the jersey on Tuesday. Still the hardest stages are to come and he's clearly the best climber here.

2) Thibaut Pinot @ 28": finally riding the Giro, the guy must have some italian blood in him. His team is strong and dedicated, plus there is no pressure on him. I expect fireworks from him in the third week. Is he mentally strong enough?

3) Tom Dumoulin @ 30": climbing better than ever, with almost 70 km of TT ahead of us where he gain minutes on the other contenders. His team is surely better than in the 2015 Vuelta. My only concern: those multi mountain stages.

4) Bauke Mollema @ 51": as in last year Tour, very high level. Sounded pretty confident in the interviews after Blockhaus, he can't wait to ride the ITT. What about the third week though?

5) Vincenzo Nibali @ 1'10": too much pride trying to follow Nairo on Blockhaus, but his level seems better than last year at this point. If he's in striking distance by the beginning of the third week, everything is possible. TT will tell us more.

6) Domenico Pozzovivo @ 1'28": finally back to his old self after the horrible crash in Giro 2015 and two mediocre seasons. Hard to see him fight for the overall win though.

7) Ilnur Zakarin @ 2'28": possibly the most disappointing performance on Blockhaus. I expected him to be at least on Nibali's level in the first week. Did he suffer the heat? Gap is already pretty big. Hopefully this means he'll attack relentlessly from now on.

8) Davide Formolo @ 2'45": ok, probably a 0,00001% of winning the whole thing but I had to include him being 8th in GC. He said he didn't feel particularly good on Blockhaus.

9) Steven Kruijswijk @ 3'06" (currently in 10th position, but I can't see Amador being a contender unless Quintana crashes or falls sick): I think his performance on Blockhaus was not bad at all. He'll peak for the third week as always, and unleash hell on the Stelvio. Be afraid.

 

[Netserk]

One thing is Major Tom, but for the sake of the race dynamics, I really hope Pinot takes a minute or more on Quintana in the first ITT.

 

[Brullnux]

I think for the race we need Nairo to have a real bad day tomorrow and lose minutes to everyone else.

 

[Singer01]

Voted Tom D, he must take at least 3.5-4 mins out of Quintana in the 2 remaining time trials, his climbing on the worst climb for him was very good. Also be nice to see a non 'big 4' rider take GC for a change.

 

[Kwibus]

Quintana, no doubt.

Only a crash or illness can stop him.

Multi mountain stages will crack major Tom eventually and I can't see Pinot beating Quintana. I'd love both of them to beat Quintana, but no.

 

[Kwibus]

Re:

Voted Tom D, he must take at least 3.5-4 mins out of Quintana in the 2 remaining time trials, his climbing on the worst climb for him was very good. Also be nice to see a non 'big 4' rider take GC for a change.

The climb itself was the worst climb for Dumoulin, but it's still earyly in the GT and it was a flat stage with MTF which suits him a looooot more than a multi mountain stage.

 

[SKSemtex]

Voted Nibali. Either voodoo or mafia will make it happen again. :lol:
Only 3 more dolls to be nailed.

 

[topcat]

It still is a two horse race: Nairo or Nibs

 

[Climbing]

This is the best Nibali we’ve seen this early in a GT for a long while.
It’s a though call against Quintana and new level Dumoulin/Pinot, but I expect him to work his magic once again in the third week, relatively close behind general classification this time.
Just a feeling.

 

[May0maniac]

You can't count out Nibali and who knows, Quintana could have a 2005 Ivan Basso moment durning the Giro, not the most realistic option, but it could happen.

 

[Valv.Piti]

4 riders have realistic opportunities to win the Giro and one of them is a pretty big favourite at this point. The 3 remaining, Pinot, Nibali and Tom, all still have a somewhat decent shot at winning the whole thing. A lot can happen.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

While Quintana looked very good on Blockhaus, I voted for Nibs. He's almost always the strongest rider in the 3rd week of any GT, day to day, and is currently in good position. Agree with SafeBet though, we'll know more after the TT for sure.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Can't see anything else but Quintana winning.

Although I hope Pinot or Dumoulin can take it. Somebody new.

 

[Põhja Konn]

I don't know who wins in the end, but I'm very confident that, barring any unforseen setbacks, Kangert will end in top 10. Top 5 is unlikely, but not completely out of the question.

His top end climbing is lacking a bit compared to the top GC riders, but he is a very good TT-er among GC guys and has excellent recovery over three weeks. Some of the more hyped and bigger name riders are bound to fail between now and Milano while he is quietly and consistently doing his thing. End result of something between 6th and 10th is very likely.

Basically doing a Zubeldia, though he has already been caught in camera yesterday. :lol:

 

[Laplaz]

One of the three 1990's to win this.

 

[Rollthedice]

I'll stick with the prediction from the beginning of the Giro 1.Nibs 2. Nairo Stoneface 3, Tibopino. It seemed crazy then when Nibali was barely hanging with Roson and Hirt in Croatia, now when he's 1 minute down to Quintana after the hardest MTF in the Giro it doesn't sound that crazy after all.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Quintana will win. The scenario will fit him perfectly. Dumoulin will take pink. Quintana to go crazy with Movistar in the final week. Taking big time in at least 1 multi mountain stage, and then defend the lead in the final time trial

Nibali, I'm sorry Nibali fans but he isn't climbing well enough to threaten Quintana and Nibali is not the sure-fire powerhouse in the TT either. Not even his downhilling can help him here against a more powerfull Movistar squad. Bahrein is not Astana so nobody to help him in any valley.

I think Pinot is the closest challenger in the mountains and Dumoulin the obvious one in the time trials. For Nibali I see no way unless he has the luck that Quintana falls.. He had that luck last year with Kruijswijk, but luck has to run out eventually. I can't see him winning as outright strongest rider

 

[Tonton]

Pre-race, I had Quintana-Pinot-Nibali 1.2.3, and Quintana is clearly above the rest right now. But anything can happen. Nibali is not done yet. And Dumourain is scary.

Although the odds aren't that great, I just voted for Il Grandissimo Tibopino. It will take some luck, limiting his losses in the MTF like he did yesterday a la Federicaut Bahamontot, he'll need to ITT like Thinard Pinault, and get time bonuses with the sprinting abilities of a Giusebaut Sarronot...

I believe, I believe, I believe .

 

[Escarabajo]

Quintana is less favorite than it was a week ago before the start. He has less percentage.

Strange world we are living on!

 

[DFA123]

Re:

Quintana is less favorite than it was a week ago before the start. He has less percentage.

Strange world we are living on!

It is strange. Especially because his odds have shortened considerably with the bookies. They had him as around 50% to win at the start, and he is nearly 70%. Nearly all the movement coming after yesterdays stage.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Yeah, its a tricky one, but I actually didn't expect Quintana to take the race into his hands like he did yesterday with the Movistar squad. I don't necessarily know if I was surprised he was this good at this point, but I certainly wasn't disappointed. Nibali was about par, Thibaut a bit over, but had Dumoulin lost, say, 2 minutes which probably was what was expected on such a hard climb, it would have been perfect.

The short odds also have something to do with Sky eliminating themselves and Adam Yates likewise, Kruijswijk being this weak etc. etc. Overall, it WAS a good day yesterday which, in my opinion, strengthened his position, but a few riders really threw a curveball.

 

[Singer01]

Re:

Yeah, its a tricky one, but I actually didn't expect Quintana to take the race into his hands like he did yesterday with the Movistar squad. I don't necessarily know if I was surprised he was this good at this point, but I certainly wasn't disappointed. Nibali was about par, Thibaut a bit over, but had Dumoulin lost, say, 2 minutes which probably was what was expected on such a hard climb, it would have been perfect.

The short odds also have something to do with Sky eliminating themselves and Adam Yates likewise, Kruijswijk being this weak etc. etc. Overall, it WAS a good day yesterday which, in my opinion, strengthened his position, but a few riders really threw a curveball.

jesus wept, they are getting blamed for this now as well?

 

[Valv.Piti]

I should have phrased it better, were elimnated by the crash.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

Yeah, its a tricky one, but I actually didn't expect Quintana to take the race into his hands like he did yesterday with the Movistar squad. I don't necessarily know if I was surprised he was this good at this point, but I certainly wasn't disappointed. Nibali was about par, Thibaut a bit over, but had Dumoulin lost, say, 2 minutes which probably was what was expected on such a hard climb, it would have been perfect.

The short odds also have something to do with Sky eliminating themselves and Adam Yates likewise, Kruijswijk being this weak etc. etc. Overall, it WAS a good day yesterday which, in my opinion, strengthened his position, but a few riders really threw a curveball.

Yeah, I guess the Dumoulin and Pinot TT factor is what people are looking at and are perhaps getting swayed by after their impressive climbing. But the bookies are happy that Quintana's climbing, his form, his much greater stage race experience, his current lead and his stronger team all make him a near certainty barring illness or injury.

 

[Cookster15]

Head says Quintana easily. Heart wants Dumoulin to be able to pull off an upset. Will probably be disappointed by today but lets see. Can't see Nibali repeating the miracles of 2016 and I have doubts on Pinot.