Amstel Gold Race: April 21st, 2019

[Pantani_lives]

The hilly classic in the Dutch province of Limburg has an extraordinary line-up this year, with riders who excelled in the classics of the previous weeks and climbers who got into shape in the one-week races. The course has changed several times in an attempt to get a longer and more exciting final. There are no less than thirty-five short climbs, including three times the Cauberg and three times the Bemelerberg. The steepest are the Kruisberg, the Eyserbosweg and the Keutenberg. Let's hope for a clash of the titans!

Climbs in the final:
24. Cauberg (88 km)
25. Geulhemmerberg (83 km)
26. Bemelerberg (70 km)
27. Loorberg (55 km)
28. Gulperberg (45 km)
29. Kruisberg (39 km)
30. Eyserbosweg (37 km)
31. Fromberg (34 km)
32. Keutenberg (29 km)
33. Cauberg (19 km)
34. Geulhemmerberg (14 km)
35. Bemelerberg (7 km)

Recent winners:
2009 Serguei Ivanov
2010 Philippe Gilbert
2011 Philippe Gilbert
2012 Enrico Gasparotto
2013 Roman Kreuziger
2014 Philippe Gilbert
2015 Michal Kwiatkowski
2016 Enrico Gasparotto
2017 Philippe Gilbert
2018 Michael Valgren

 

[Laplaz]

MVDP vs. Rest of the world

 

[Scarponi]

How hasn’t Valverde won this once?

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Re:

How hasn’t Valverde won this once?

Very easy to explain

Years with Cauberg finish -> Usually either dropped at the Keutenberg (he doesn't seem to like that climb) or dropped on the Cauberg (he doesn't seem to like that climb).

Years without Cauberg finish -> Other solo riders or small groups stayed ahead, or he was outsprinted.

It's simply not really his race. He's been trying for years but I think this race simply does not suit him that well

 

[Velolover2]

I'm glad to see so many of the Northern Classics specialists riding this race..

Naesen, Trentin, Van Baarle, GVA, Sagan, Gilbert, Stuyven, Van Aert, Van der Poel. Only Stybar is really missing on the list.

Hopefully this combined the reduced teams will mean early action and aggressive riding. It has been great for the last couple of years.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

How hasn’t Valverde won this once?

Very easy to explain

Years with Cauberg finish -> Usually either dropped at the Keutenberg (he doesn't seem to like that climb) or dropped on the Cauberg (he doesn't seem to like that climb).

Years without Cauberg finish -> Other solo riders or small groups stayed ahead, or he was outsprinted.

It's simply not really his race. He's been trying for years but I think this race simply does not suit him that well

Rather he doesn't have the punch to go alone on a climb like Cauberg which is a bit too easy and then relies on his sprint when theres usually 1-2 faster riders than him. Also, somestimes it feels kinda like a lottery who wins the race. After all he has been very close several times, but the win has alluded him unfortunately. But I think he has a good shot this year - last year, he was probably the strongest, but him, Sagan and Julian marked each other. This year he has taken a slower approach and with the previous classics riding in Flanders and San Remo, which is suited to heavier types, he should look good for this one.

 

[Gigs_98]

This race has been absolutely brilliant since the route change so hopefully it will deliver again this year. And just in case anybody is interested, I won't be able to watch live

 

[Valv.Piti]

In a normal Amstel without any bad luck and stuff that messes the results up, Mathieu definitely should be seen as the favourite. If he isn't dropped he is gonna outsprint Alaphilippe and Valverde - the likes of Sagan and maybe Matthews is up in the air.

Will be a super interesting race, especially now that Giggs isn't watching!

 

[Pantani_lives]

Valverde actually has a lot of close places in Amstel: 2 2 3 4 5 7. I suppose he needs a somewhat steeper or longer climb close to the finish in order to win.

Astana has dominated the one-week races, but it's unclear who their leader is for the classics. Lutsenko has No. 1, but Fuglsang seems more likely to me. Then there's Ion, who finished seventh two years ago.

 

[Son of Amsterhammer]

Always a great race. Really hard to go against the unstoppable force that is MvDP!!

 

[Pantani_lives]

My stars:

*****Van der Poel, Alaphilippe
****Sagan, Matthews
***Wellens, Gilbert, Kwiatkowski
**Valverde, Fuglsang, Bettiol
*Van Aert, Van Avermaet, Valgren

 

[Sestriere]

Van der Poel and Alaphilippe are clear top favourites, and quite a bit ahead of the rest imo. Wellens certainly looked pretty strong as well today but he will always have a hard time to actually win this biggest races because he just isn't a very fast sprinter. Then we have the BORA-duo of Sagan and Schachmann (can't believe noone mentioned him yet, not even one star...) whose tactics will be interesting to see.
Everybody else would be a tad below on paper, although it should be a very open race with many more possible winners.

 

[can3478]

Looking through PCS, Gilbert had better result(4 wins) than Alaphilippe for this race.

2014 - DNF
2015 - 7th
2016 - 5th
2018 - 7th

 

[Vroome.exe]

Re:

Looking through PCS, Gilbert had better result(4 wins) than Alaphilippe for this race.

2014 - DNF
2015 - 7th
2016 - 5th
2018 - 7th

I mean.. Gilbert has better results than anybody here. It's Amstel.

 

[The Barb]

Given the course changes I'm not sure how much riders' history in this race matters. Gilbert is a good example. He was so superior on the Cauberg that when it finished at the top or shortly afterwards he was almost unstoppable. Now, it's much more open.

I love the course the way it is now. With strong attacks highly likely from a long way out, this has the potential to be the race of the season.

 

[hayneplane]

The field here could be the most finely balanced of the entire season. Such a clash between the LBL Grand Tour type punchy climbers and the RVV cobbled hard men who can get up short steep efforts and generally have a faster sprint in a small group.

Also adding to the layers of intrigue is that the vast majority of top teams have a couple of different contenders who will be best suited to attacking the race or hoping for a group finish. Ironically with so many well fancied riders in decent form and being watched like hawks it could present an opportunity for a talented outsider to pull off a major breakthrough win in the manner of Bettiol in the Ronde.

 

[Blanco]

Sagan, Valverde, Alaphilippe, Kwiatkowski, Gilbert, Van Avermaet, Van Der Poel, Wellens, Matthews - field of the season! I hope we'll get a race of the season too. Last year was very good, this year has a potential to be even better.

Hope for an old man to take the win, and if not him, then I would like a young man to take it.

 

[Mavic]

Re:

Sagan, Valverde, Alaphilippe, Kwiatkowski, Gilbert, Van Avermaet, Van Der Poel, Wellens, Matthews - field of the season! I hope we'll get a race of the season too. Last year was very good, this year has a potential to be even better.

Hope for an old man to take the win, and if not him, then I would like a young man to take it.

Bold prediction considering the field...

 

[movingtarget]

Ala will be hard to hold out. Like to see Matthews grab a win. Valverde should be in the mix as usual. Wellens ? Ala probably has the Fleche at his mercy. Should be a good one. Don't see Gilbert's form necessarily transferring to this race. Sagan looks like he still has some work to do but needs a result.

 

[Koronin]

I'd love to see Valverde finally win this one, but this race just doesn't fit him that well. I expect him to be there as always though.

 

[The Barb]

Re:

I'd love to see Valverde finally win this one, but this race just doesn't fit him that well. I expect him to be there as always though.

I think it suits him better now than when it all came down to the Cauberg. But he needs to attack and get into a group that doesn't contain any of Sagan, Alaphillipe, Van der Poel or Matthews and yes, that won't be easy. If someone likes Wellens attacks long range though he should jump right onto his wheel.

 

[Escarabajo]

Where is Betancur in the Poll?

 

[Mavic]

Re: Re:

I'd love to see Valverde finally win this one, but this race just doesn't fit him that well. I expect him to be there as always though.

I think it suits him better now than when it all came down to the Cauberg. But he needs to attack and get into a group that doesn't contain any of Sagan, Alaphillipe, Van der Poel or Matthews and yes, that won't be easy. If someone likes Wellens attacks long range though he should jump right onto his wheel.

Near impossible on both counts: getting into a decisive group at that stage of the race that doesn't include any of the riders you listed as well as the peloton letting both Wellens and Valverde get away just like that. I mean, never say never but the chances are slim to none.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re:

Where is Betancur in the Poll?

Why even make a poll if one guy would get all the votes?

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

Where is Betancur in the Poll?

Why even make a poll if one guy would get all the votes?

So Putin can get 130% of votes?