Any hope for Cav?

[lilyprotector]

Who's good at math and can figure out the new points? Is there any hope for Cavendish to take the green jersey by tour's end?

 

[auscyclefan94]

Well the only thing I see hm winning is stages. I think Farrar and Gilbert have got a good jump on Cav.

 

[Ragerod]

There is still hope because a win is more heavily weighted this year but he probably needs to win the remaining bunch sprints.

 

[lilyprotector]

and he'll have to hang on to the points he wins and not get them taken away by day's end. bummer.

 

[yourwelcome]

He might have to start bothering to contest the sprints to the end instead of taking his bat and going home the moment it looks like he might not win outright.

 

[Damiano Machiavelli]

Who's good at math and can figure out the new points? Is there any hope for Cavendish to take the green jersey by tour's end?

Hopefully not.

 

[Ragerod]

He might have to start bothering to contest the sprints to the end instead of taking his bat and going home the moment it looks like he might not win outright.

It looks like he's finally learnt his lesson during stage 3.

 

[ingsve]

He could catch up during a single sprint depending on how the others ahead of him do. There is still not much in it at all.

 

[Rip:30]

He could catch up during a single sprint depending on how the others ahead of him do. There is still not much in it at all.

So like if Cav gets a 5th place again and Thor gets the W with Tyler in 3rd?

 

[ingsve]

So like if Cav gets a 5th place again and Thor gets the W with Tyler in 3rd?

That still wouldn't decide it. Though he can't keep losing for too long.

 

[Andre.J]

Yes. Cav is history.

 

[Kender]

So like if Cav gets a 5th place again and Thor gets the W with Tyler in 3rd?

any sprint that has tyler in third will not be won by Thor. he would have already led out Tyler and been passed

 

[Rip:30]

any sprint that has tyler in third will not be won by Thor. he would have already led out Tyler and been passed

well who knows, on the right type of finish maybe they both go for it. Thor has a 5 year streak of winning at least one Tour stage (not including TTT this yr) and I can't see him not taking a crack at it at some point. crazy **** happens.

 

[auscyclefan94]

well who knows, on the right type of finish maybe they both go for it. Thor has a 5 year streak of winning at least one Tour stage (not including TTT this yr) and I can't see him not taking a crack at it at some point. crazy **** happens.

The finish to Lisieux looks very good for him and cav won't make it. I can also see Gilbert winning there as well.

Final 3km has a 1.4km climb @ 6.3% with 1.4km of false flat with a flat final 400m finish.

 

[Rip:30]

Yea thanks, I'll try to catch the finish. Longest stage this year @ 226 km...

 

[greenedge]

He will get a few sprints, maybe not as much but he has 10 or so more years ahead of him don't worry. He has had a lot of misfortune in this race as well so far and 3 days not suited to him.

 

[Kender]

well who knows, on the right type of finish maybe they both go for it. Thor has a 5 year streak of winning at least one Tour stage (not including TTT this yr) and I can't see him not taking a crack at it at some point. crazy **** happens.

yeah but what i was saying is... if tyler is there for the sprint thor will lead him out. tyler is the faster sprinter and thor is fully aware of that. that's not to say thor wont win a stage, just that if he does tyler wont be in the sprint so wont get 3rd

 

[Bavarianrider]

He seems to be too fat if you ask me

 

[mickkk]

First time I put him in my team, oh dear.

When I saw him on telly, before the TT, he was whinging and moaning and I could tell it was all over for a week, he seems in one of his moods.

 

[Mambo95]

Of course he's got hope - he's still the favourite with the bookies due to his proven ability to bang out loads of stage wins.

Currently his deficits to three main contenders are:

Rojas 48
Gilbert 46
Farrar 34

If he wins a stage the best finishing positions those three will have are likely to be are Farrar 2nd, Rojas 4th, Gilbert 10th - sometimes they will be lower.

Therefore it will take, in all probability, one stage win to catch Gilbert, two to catch Rojas and three to catch Farrar. History shows that's not only possible, but likely.

 

[Swabian Lass]

Not sure. If you look at the numbers he can still do it, but he's got to contest every sprint to the end to pick up whatever points he can. He's a bit too much win or nothing, though that may be changing.

I wonder how much he's interested actually. Yes, I know he says he is, but whenever I've heard him talk about it it's always been along the lines of "Well, I'd like Green for sure, but I'll do it by winning stages. If I win enough stages it'll come." I wonder which HTC prioritise. I suspect given the choice they prefer stage wins.

 

[AussieGoddess]

thats what I dont really understand though .... surely its not one or the other?

If he kept trying instead of spitting the dummy, packing up his bike and going home when its clear he isnt going to win, he might just still accumulate enough points to win the green.

He can still go for the next stage win just the same.


He is a petty, tantrum-my child who if he cant win, wants to just go home. That isnt team play.

 

[rickshaw]

of COURSE he has a hope....

With the entire team, from management down to mechanics built with the prime directive to deliver cav to the line success is almost certain. He may be a one trick pony, but he does that one trick very well.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

The points system was changed because Prudhomme felt it was stupid that he kept winning but never got the green jersey. So if he can't win it on a system even more biased in his favour than the old one, which was already biased towards sprinters, then he needs to take a good long look in the mirror.

Or at least find a convenient scapegoat to whine about.

 

[will10]

This system does not favour Cav IMO. If they wanted it to, there would be even less points available at intermediate sprints, not more, and there would be less points offered for stages such as stage 1, which is not "flat".