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Teams & Riders Arnaud De Lie’s Hips Don’t Lie Discussion Thread

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Wins like those of Ciolek and Goss at MSR occurred when they barely hung on to the lead group of puncheurs as they created the Poggio, and then sat on for the sprint win. In recent years that “punch” by puncheurs has been too much for any true sprinters to hang on. And with Pogacar and MVDP there the same will likely be true this year.
all I see is "they were lucky but De Lie won't be lucky" so it sounds like you have a crystal ball. Could you also DM me the winning lotto numbers please?
 
This is too easy and diminishes those Ciolek and Goss victories somewhat. Very true, they did nothing more than hanging on and following wheels, but at the same time those two editions are some of the hardest Sanremo has ever seen. Goss went to the Poggio in a group of about thirty riders after seeing rain all day, whereas Ciolek won a race that had to be shortened due to much more rain and even hail. You know who'd flourish in those conditions? De Lie.

What did play into their hands is Pozzato tactics of sucking the wheel of Gilbert for 300 kilometers. Pogacar would have trouble staying away too if Van Aert did nothing but suck his wheel like a pacifier.
Those are good points, especially about the conditions. But Goss in particular was the last of the elite group coming over the top of Poggio, barely hanging on by a thread. We just haven’t seen sprinters able to hang on to the current generation of puncheur/climber types. Demare won from a reduce group that came back together by the time the road flattened out in San Remo. That is of course still possible—but seems much less likely than it used to be.

Re: the Goss win, I think that would have been Gilbert’s 5th monument except for Pozzato chasing and then as you said just sitting in his wheel.
 
all I see is "they were lucky but De Lie won't be lucky" so it sounds like you have a crystal ball. Could you also DM me the winning lotto numbers please?
As for lotto numbers, I wish I could! :)

I said what is likely to be true is that once again the climbiest sprinters will not be able to hang on to the super puncheur/climber types we have in this generation—Pogacar and MVDP this year, as was the case too with MVDP, Alaphillipe, and Van Aert in recent years.

Before a big race many of us imagine some possible outcomes—this is just a scenario I imagined based on past history. It’s not a prediction—I don’t know who will win, and I’ll be glad if De Lie does because I like seeing different riders get on the top step.
 
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As for lotto numbers, I wish I could! :)

I said what is likely to be true is that once again the climbiest sprinters will not be able to hang on to the super puncheur/climber types we have in this generation—Pogacar and MVDP this year, as was the case too with MVDP, Alaphillipe, and Van Aert in recent years.

Before a big race many of us imagine some possible outcomes—this is just a scenario I imagined based on past history. It’s not a prediction—I don’t know who will win, and I’ll be glad if De Lie does because I like seeing different riders get on the top step.
I mean if racers only ever entered events they were more likely than not going to win, then only about 3 riders would ever enter a race.

Even if pog and MVDP do annihilate the poggio again, nabbing a monument podium from the chase group would be a big step for De Lie.

Also I don't think you realize De Lie hasn't trained properly for the last 2 weeks.
TBH that sounds like an ideal taper period.

I think he'd have a low single digit chance of winning, but I'm also in favor of De Lie racing MSR to build experience if nothing else. It feels like he just wants to get an easy win elsewhere, but that runs the risk that if he's bad in those smaller races it will mess with his head even more.
 
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Wins like those of Ciolek and Goss at MSR occurred when they barely hung on to the lead group of puncheurs as they created the Poggio, and then sat on for the sprint win. In recent years that “punch” by puncheurs has been too much for any true sprinters to hang on. And with Pogacar and MVDP there the same will likely be true this year.
both editions were very special, though. When Goss won, the race was in pieces after le Manie already with 100k to go, and Ciolek's saw the worst weather conditions in decades. Circumstances like that would both reduce the punch left nowadays as well.
 
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both editions were very special, though. When Goss won, the race was in pieces after le Manie already with 100k to go, and Ciolek's saw the worst weather conditions in decades. Circumstances like that would both reduce the punch left nowadays as well.
Good point. Goss’s win was well played in an exciting finale. I suppose you could say the same about Ciolek but I’m biased because I really wanted Cancellara or Sagan to win that one. :)
 
Arnaud speaks, on the race yesterday
"I don't know if I could have won without that fall. I'm just happy with my fourth place, although the feeling is not 100% yet. I was in the final. That's a nice feeling after a difficult Paris-Nice."
On not doing MSR;""A difficult, but the right choice. If I go to Italy to ride 300 kilometers while I'm not fit, I know I won't be able to do anything there," he explained the decision to HLN."
 
@Samamba do you know what happened today? I didn’t expect him to contest for the win but after his showing the past week, I did expect him to be in G2 or G3

Badly positioned where everyone knows you need to be positioned in the first 20 (before Taaienberg he was around 30th position), but also just really bad legs imo. Or something mustve happened in that descent before the Taaienberg cause there were guys around him who still made it to the group (like Narvaez, Albanese, ...). So I fear he was just bad, which obviously isn't a good sign. Cracking somewhere in the end like Girmay is one thing, not being able to be with the best 30 after 120km of races without a lot of hills is just horrible.

But, who knows, maybe something did happen that I'm not aware of.
 
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https://www.hln.be/wielrennen/geen-excuses-daar-moet-je-mee-zijn-de-lie-rijdt-anonieme-e3-saxo-classic-en-dat-is-weinig-bemoedigend-voor-ronde-van-vlaanderen~a59ea3a7/
googling translate -
Taaienberg. Slope 8 after 126.3 kilometers, 81.3 kilometers from the finish in Harelbeke. The point that is heavily hammered on during the tactical briefings on all team buses in the morning. "Pay attention. Be there!'. Arnaud De Lie picked up the message well. "Then and there I have to be at the front," he nodded during the pre-race interview in the mixed zone.

Jasper Stuyven opened the debates. Whereupon Mathieu van der Poel took over a first time and took care of the big selection. Van Aert, Pedersen, Wellens, Jorgenson and all the other later protagonists followed, attentively, in slides. Also at the business: Brent Van Moer. Painfully absent: De Lie.
Sports manager Kurt Van de Wouwer didn't understand. "A group of — what was it? - 30, 35 people? Arnaud always had to be there, didn't he? This was surprising, yes." CEO Stéphane Heulot was also surprised. "This was a crucial place and phase, we knew. Not something we suddenly discovered now, today. 'Be in the first five', was the motto. If you do that in 35th, 40th position, you inevitably bring doom upon yourself and it becomes very difficult to get yourself back into the race."

Exactly what happened. De Lie quickly faded away. And would only reach Harelbeke in 52nd place, 6.04 behind Van der Poel. "Poorly positioned. And actually not a good day either," he argued shortly afterwards. There were no excuses for the former, according to Heulot. "Faut pas se cacher derrière son petit doigt. We don't have to hide behind anything. I also think that he just lacked the legs. A bad day. As there will be more to come. And just as there will be others and better ones."
Bad legs, bad positioning ... I think he needs a wingman to help out with getting in the right place in the right time.
Down for Gent-Wevelgem on Sunday which will probably be another training ride for Flanders.
 
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https://cyclinguptodate.com/cycling...mits-concerns-over-arnaud-de-lies-recent-form
Sadly, this Spring Classics campaign has not gone to plan for the Belgian, most recently finishing a disappointing 90th on Sunday afternoon at Gent Wevelgem.

The day started badly for De Lie as an early crash set the tone. “He hit the ground all by himself,” explained a concerned Lotto Dstny CEO Stéphane Heulot to Het Nieuwsblad post-race. "How did that happen? A lack of concentration? Bad luck? The physical damage was not too bad. There didn't seem to be much going on. He left again almost immediately, but his confidence took a big hit there.”
“We need to talk about Arnaud's program," explains the boss. "Continuing to race like this won't gain him anything. This week we will sit down with him, evaluate everything and see what is best for him. We will review his calendar. I don't know yet what he's into. He needs to be able to clear his head.”

“This is more of a mental than physical issue,” Heulot concludes. “The classics he was really aiming for are now over and that is a disappointment, but we are not going to hide behind anything. This is not easy, least of all for Arnaud himself. I can understand that things are going less well and that you are losing confidence. We are going to tackle this as a team. We haven't seen the real Arnaud yet this year. We must and will find him.”
 

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