betting on tour de france !!

[shades1]

hi , im an avid sports gambler and enjoy nothing more than having a good bet on various sports , especially ones that are long and drawn out over days and weeks rather than general gambling on horses etc where the thrill is over in 2 minutes .

im not exactly full of knowledge about pro cycling but really enjoy the TDF when it comes around each year , iv recently been watching all of last years mountain stages on youtube to give me some clues as to who could go well this year .

from the bookmakers point of view they are making it a 2 horse race between evans and wiggins but im hoping with some forum help between us we can find someone else to finish on the podium as these 2 guys are ridiculously short odds and there is no value whatsoever in betting on either rider .

andy shleck was my bet last year and i managed to pick up some nice money even though he didnt win .

after doing a little bit of homework i have a good feeling of the chances of pierre rollond , from what i can gather he had the job of protecting voekkler last year and done a tremendous job of it , he is young rider with a big future and was allowed to show his potential at alp d'huez last year once voekkler finally ran out of steam , from what i can gather the voekkler/rollond partnership will again be apparent this year but with one big difference , it will be the other way round !!

the bookmakers have rollond around 5O/1 at the moment which looks fantastic value to me .

if there are any other forum members that enjoy a bet as i do i would be happy to hear from you and your thoughts leading up to the race .

if we can steer clear of the obvious such as evans , wiggins , cav most stages etc hopefully we will find a nice bit of value somewhere and win each other some lovely money !!

 

[Climeon]

It would probably be a good idea for you to also research how people have done in the rest of the 2011 season and this year and not only in the tour last year

 

[jens_attacks]

pick the magical ones,the ones coming from the under the radar ready to smash the life out of france

klodi
cobo
westra
rolland
horner
kern
hoogerland
kash
vino
kessiakoff
peter velits


good odds for them

wiggo is my favourite too but this is cycling,you never know.half of the favourites will probably crash out again after the first week(i hope that doesn't happen)>

 

[MonteZoncolan]

If you are looking for value, perhaps each way on any of these for GC
Nib,JVDB, Gesink, Sanchez.
Outsider for podium (better EW value) Levi at 66/1
Just my thoughts.

 

[martyfulu]

think cobo is a good each way bet . dunno how each way goes in cycling. but this guy doesnt seem to be mentioned anywhere here apart from in that post. am i missing something. dont think hell win but 150 to 1. compared to martin , froome some others. just wondering what others think.
possible top 10 bet bet at 14s.?

 

[Viking]

Valverde could be a good bet, especially at 50-1 (longest available right now).

 

[The Hitch]

hi , im an avid sports gambler and enjoy nothing more than having a good bet on various sports , especially ones that are long and drawn out over days and weeks rather than general gambling on horses etc where the thrill is over in 2 minutes .

im not exactly full of knowledge about pro cycling but really enjoy the TDF when it comes around each year , iv recently been watching all of last years mountain stages on youtube to give me some clues as to who could go well this year .

from the bookmakers point of view they are making it a 2 horse race between evans and wiggins but im hoping with some forum help between us we can find someone else to finish on the podium as these 2 guys are ridiculously short odds and there is no value whatsoever in betting on either rider .

andy shleck was my bet last year and i managed to pick up some nice money even though he didnt win .

after doing a little bit of homework i have a good feeling of the chances of pierre rollond , from what i can gather he had the job of protecting voekkler last year and done a tremendous job of it , he is young rider with a big future and was allowed to show his potential at alp d'huez last year once voekkler finally ran out of steam , from what i can gather the voekkler/rollond partnership will again be apparent this year but with one big difference , it will be the other way round !!

the bookmakers have rollond around 5O/1 at the moment which looks fantastic value to me .

if there are any other forum members that enjoy a bet as i do i would be happy to hear from you and your thoughts leading up to the race .

if we can steer clear of the obvious such as evans , wiggins , cav most stages etc hopefully we will find a nice bit of value somewhere and win each other some lovely money !!

Dennis Menchov 22-1 (3rd in 2010 and 2 guys that beat him are out). Samuel Sanchez 33-1 (1 place behind Menchov that year) and Robert Gesink 33-1 (if Menchov fails and Samus injury is worse than expected) are what i would reccomend.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

I'd suggest staying clear of Rolland top 3. Very unlikely imo.

Samu, Menchov, Leipheimer, VDB, Gesink, Schleck, Valverde, Nibali and maybe even Tom Danielson are the ones I suggest looking at.

VDb, Samu, Menchov and Gesink especially imo.

 

[swuzzlebubble]

Black Caviar $1.30

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

just got gesink podium @8
not bad odds.

I dont think it will happen, but you never know I guess.

 

[hiero2]

There was another thread about this somewhere.

Assuming we are talking place or show in Paris, and not a stage win. At the odds listed - I'm going for insurance to stay on the bookie's side. Rolland @ 50:1? He should be ten times that. Valverde @ 8:1? You won't have to keep me away from that window.

It should be in interesting tour, though.

 

[shades1]

There was another thread about this somewhere.

Assuming we are talking place or show in Paris, and not a stage win. At the odds listed - I'm going for insurance to stay on the bookie's side. Rolland @ 50:1? He should be ten times that. Valverde @ 8:1? You won't have to keep me away from that window.

It should be in interesting tour, though.

can you tell me why you think rollond should be 1O times that price , its doubful you will put me off betting on him as my minds made up , i have noticed there is not a lot of love for the guy on these forums , interested to know why ?

 

[Bobby G]

can you tell me why you think rollond should be 1O times that price , its doubful you will put me off betting on him as my minds made up , i have noticed there is not a lot of love for the guy on these forums , interested to know why ?

If it were last year's parcors, yeah fine have an each way stab @ 50/1. The lad has talent. Fact is he can't really time trial. Expect him to lose 6-10 mins here. Trust me, he won't make that up on Wiggo, Evans etc. in the limited amount of mountains there are in this tour. Then you have to consider he's done ****** all this year. Makes 50/1 incredibly short. I genuinely believe youd be better of having a go on Kruiswjick @ 350/1. Much better TTer and arguably just as strong in the mountains on a good day, just not as explosive.

Without sounding snobbish , I'd listen to the lads on here. They know they're stuff.

 

[jens_attacks]

rolland is french so i would pick him any time of the day.
what he did in LBL ,you see rarely nowadays.in the tour,he will be one of the few who can rape the team sky.
when i will see steven breathe like pierre rolland in the tour de france,then i will go with him
he's the big french hope and that's uber important.altough if kern is finding his knees back(and it looks like that),rolland will stay with him

wiggins and evans are the big ones remember.
but also remember that it's a bike race,both of them can crash out after the first week.

trust europcar.trust excellence

 

[shades1]

ok thanks guys , you all clearly have way more knowledge than me and i will be taking this advice onboard , think it will be wise for me to pick 3 or 4 riders that have been mentioned in the thread and split my bets up . there is some tremendous value out there if wiggins/evans miss out on the podium .

 

[Punter]

Guys the Green Jersey betting is fascinating. For a few months I had been hoping to get a price on Sagan but the bookies are wise to him and he is a 15/20 fav.

Cav who was 9/10 at one point is out to 5/1 (Olympics) and Goss is 7/1.

I can't have Sagan at that price and assuming this is not Cav's year what are the toughts on Goss at 7/1 - don't know him well, could he hang in there and get points on the stage 1 finish for example?

 

[mb2612]

Guys the Green Jersey betting is fascinating. For a few months I had been hoping to get a price on Sagan but the bookies are wise to him and he is a 15/20 fav.

Cav who was 9/10 at one point is out to 5/1 (Olympics) and Goss is 7/1.

I can't have Sagan at that price and assuming this is not Cav's year what are the toughts on Goss at 7/1 - don't know him well, could he hang in there and get points on the stage 1 finish for example?

He can climb better than all the other sprinters bar Sagan, and with a whole team behind him he should have a decent shot. Not sure if 7/1 is wide enough for me to bet on him though.

Just went on paddypower and Goss is 10/1 there though.

 

[Punter]

Thanks for that, 10/1 a nice price but in South Africa so cant open with Paddy - will wait for more of our books to price up!

 

[Polka Dot Punter]

For the yellow I like Gesink as a value bet. He hasn't realized his potential in a grand tour yet, but the way he's improved in the ITT this year makes me think this could be the year. It's not like he has a lot of favourites to get through either -- outside of Wiggins and Evans I don't think there's anybody Gesink can't beat if on form. If he's not, it doesn't matter.

For the KOTM I think Vinokourov at 50-1 is very attractive. When he first returned from a doping suspension he said why not try for something like KOTM, and with Brajkovic as GC leader, it's not like the Astana team is going to put the fate of their entire tour on his shoulders. Vino has targeted a stage in the Pyrenees and if he achieves that success he'll collect some points. If he can get on the KOTM leaderboard, I think the idea of winning a jersey will be hard for him to resist.

 

[avanti]

I see Cavendish odds are 10,000 to 1; I don't think he will finish the tour this year (Olympics) but for the price of a Starbucks drink one could buy a new stable of bikes should a miracle happen.

If I was a betting guy I would bet on Levi to podium.

 

[burning]

Vino for KOTM seems pretty reasonable for me

 

[Punter]

I see Cavendish odds are 10,000 to 1; I don't think he will finish the tour this year (Olympics) but for the price of a Starbucks drink one could buy a new stable of bikes should a miracle happen.

If I was a betting guy I would bet on Levi to podium.

Rather give that Starbucks drink to a homeless person!

Interested in your reasons for Levi - you can get around 20/1 that he podiums

 

[Gubby Allen]

The top 3 will be filled by the top half dozen in the betting, they're too good but there's some decent value in the Top 6 or Top 10 odds. 1 or 2 of 20/1 odds will make the top 10 for sure.

I'd look at a Garmin rider, as I fancy Hesjedal will run our of puff. Dan Martin will lose time in the TT but may well win a stage by a bit and could sneak in. Brajkovic looks decent odds. I don't fancy Frank Schleck either, so could see Radioshack switching priorities so maybe Horner.

 

[Frosty]

The top 3 will be filled by the top half dozen in the betting, they're too good but there's some decent value in the Top 6 or Top 10 odds. 1 or 2 of 20/1 odds will make the top 10 for sure.

Bet365 has 59 riders with a better chance of making the top 10 than Dupont who is at 66-1. Seems a bit harsh on him as he seems a fair bet to come 15-24th, say, but its difficult to see him making the top 10 unless he is allowed in a break later in a mountainous stage having already lost a lot of time.

Given his climbing last year, apart from on the alpe d'huez stage, i'd say that vanendert at 14-1 looks good value. Ok, so he will lose a lot of time in the TTs but he should climb well enough to make time back up on people and perhaps sneak into 10th, especially if quite a few people crash out again. VDB doing really well would be one thing that would count against him though.

Rui Costa at 14-1 is surely worth a punt? His GC performances have been disappointing in the last two tours but maybe now is the time for him to do a lot better?