Big Lance @ Kona 2011

[Roadhouse]

So who thinks what of the game plan? Can he win? Theories and thoughts?

 

[Anonymous]

If he retires from Pro Cycling as planned after the 2010 season he'll be able to dedicate more time to prep for the 2011 Kona race. But I'm not sure if he'll be able to win it though. Place high maybe, but not win it.

 

[Ripper]

So who thinks what of the game plan? Can he win? Theories and thoughts?

Won't be in the top 5, doubtful for the top 10.

 

[Roadhouse]

Won't be in the top 5, doubtful for the top 10.

care to explain how he won't make it into the top 5? and can i ask what are the best bike times of the top males at Kona?

 

[krebs303]

care to explain how he won't make it into the top 5? and can i ask what are the best bike times of the top males at Kona?

You can ask or you could look it up like everyone else.

From Lance yesterday.
"Easy 2 hour ride on the TT bike here in Kona. Channeling my inner Ironman. I'm sure I could do 12 hours in that race."

Only puts him 3 1/2 to 4 hrs behind the winner.

You could look it up.

Jurgen Zack held the course record for many years on his Softride. But I believe the record was broken in the last few years.

You could look it up.

 

[Anonymous]

It's all kind of moot anyway. LA said during training camp that he plans to race bikes for two more years, doing everything in his power to win an 8th Tour de France. If he gives cycling his all, that would mean no running or swimming until after July 2011. To think that at 40 or whatever he could spend two months swimming and running and finish near the top against people who live and breathe Ironman every day of their lives is an insult to the others. Besides, Don't you need to finish another race in a qualifying time to be allowed into Kona. If he's racing the Tour to win in 2011, when would he train for and compete in a prelim?

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hCNTb9kF1Z6S1fSoMKsemvs6eCIw

I read a quote from Macca the other day saying it would be a good effort if Lance can compete with Chrissie Wellington. Here's that video. But if LA does stay in cycling for two more years, it's awfully early to think about this.
http://triathlon.competitor.com/200...e-armstrong’s-chances-of-winning-in-kona_6503

 

[Moose McKnuckles]

If he does Kona, he'll struggle to finish Top 25. Swordsman explained why.

 

[kurtinsc]

It's all kind of moot anyway. LA said during training camp that he plans to race bikes for two more years, doing everything in his power to win an 8th Tour de France. If he gives cycling his all, that would mean no running or swimming until after July 2011. To think that at 40 or whatever he could spend two months swimming and running and finish near the top against people who live and breathe Ironman every day of their lives is an insult to the others. Besides, Don't you need to finish another race in a qualifying time to be allowed into Kona. If he's racing the Tour to win in 2011, when would he train for and compete in a prelim?

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hCNTb9kF1Z6S1fSoMKsemvs6eCIw

I read a quote from Macca the other day saying it would be a good effort if Lance can compete with Chrissie Wellington. Here's that video. But if LA does stay in cycling for two more years, it's awfully early to think about this.
http://triathlon.competitor.com/200...e-armstrong’s-chances-of-winning-in-kona_6503

Kona offers wildcards to those who don't have qualifying times.

As for Lance... we know he did a 2:50 in the Boston Marathon.

Let's do some guessing/projecting.

Bike Leg estimate - 4 hours and 15 minutes. (The race winner did it in 4 hours, 19 minutes... my guess is even after the swim Lance would be able to bike faster)

Now let's give hime a somewhat slow swim time... an hour and 25 minutes. Lance actually had an age group swimming background, and that time slower then the slowest finisher of the top 10 in the 60-64 year old male age group. The top guys were under an hour... most under 50 minutes.

Now the marathon. No way he does 2:50 after the swim and bike... so let's tack on 30 minutes to that time. 3 hours, 20 minutes. Top guys are less then 3 hours.

Now add on 10 minutes for the transitions. (top guys take 3-4 minutes at the transition)

Total estimated time:

9 hours and 10 minutes (and I think that's being a little conservative if he really put effort into it). That would put him about 30th in the professional division, 4th i the 35-39 age group division and 2nd in the 40-44 age group division.

There's no way he could compete to win it... that would require shaving an HOUR off the overall estimated time. But the bike is the longest leg, and he could buy himself a lot of time on the swim and run to get a decent overall finish.

 

[cyclegeek]

I don't think he would be racing to win rather just compete at a high level. Amazing competitor and athlete. Just another feather in his cap much like the N.Y. marathon.

 

[Roadhouse]

I don't think he would be racing to win rather just compete at a high level. Amazing competitor and athlete. Just another feather in his cap much like the N.Y. marathon.

well, i sure hope he brings the heat. i fully realize that he is close to being middle aged, just barely scratching that barrier, but it takes that kind of time to achieve that kind of strength and with his coaches, well, Anything is Possible.

now if he had chosen triathlons over tours than wouldn't it be safe to say that with his dedication to training, that he would now have eight straight Kona championships under his belt?

i'm a big Lance fan as are many of you and i just wish him the best is all.

 

[Roadhouse]

You can ask or you could look it up like everyone else.

From Lance yesterday.
"Easy 2 hour ride on the TT bike here in Kona. Channeling my inner Ironman. I'm sure I could do 12 hours in that race."

Only puts him 3 1/2 to 4 hrs behind the winner.

You could look it up.

Jurgen Zack held the course record for many years on his Softride. But I believe the record was broken in the last few years.

You could look it up.

i don't get how cyclists can be so blind to tactics. didn't he also say that after he received death threats for racing in the 09 tour that he was not there to win? and what happended there? had Contador not been so inadequate to the the verdict of TEAM then it woulda been a 1,2,3 Astana and if Lance can podium after some years off in his first race back, its a win. and it was a win for him as him being team captain and Astana in first and third. yeah, i know what he is saying already and i see right through it.

 

[stephens]

I read a quote from Macca the other day saying it would be a good effort if Lance can compete with Chrissie Wellington.

Ironman is pretty much the only sport in the world where one can be a top male competitor and lose to a woman. Chrissie is just awesome. I think she finished in the top 25 overall last time, meaning she beat about 75 male pros. So if Lance could actually hang with Chrissie, it'd be an amazing accomplishment. She just might be the best female athlete ever since her performances are really close to the best times in the world. (whereas in other sports, the top women are about the level of high school boys).

 

[Hugh Januss]

i don't get how cyclists can be so blind to tactics. didn't he also say that after he received death threats for racing in the 09 tour that he was not there to win? and what happended there? had Contador not been so inadequate to the the verdict of TEAM then it woulda been a 1,2,3 Astana and if Lance can podium after some years off in his first race back, its a win. and it was a win for him as him being team captain and Astana in first and third. yeah, i know what he is saying already and i see right through it.

Yeah, it was a real shame how that bad boy Contador singlehandedly caused Andy Schleck to drop "Captain" Armstrong on every big climb.

 

[Anonymous]

My ignore list is getting pretty full...

 

[Ripper]

My ignore list is getting pretty full...

Who's on ignore now?

 

[Moose McKnuckles]

Who's on ignore now?

This Roadhouse guy is Deadlift/Phantom Menace/LancesChammySniffer

 

[Anonymous]

Ironman is pretty much the only sport in the world where one can be a top male competitor and lose to a woman. Chrissie is just awesome. I think she finished in the top 25 overall last time, meaning she beat about 75 male pros. So if Lance could actually hang with Chrissie, it'd be an amazing accomplishment. She just might be the best female athlete ever since her performances are really close to the best times in the world. (whereas in other sports, the top women are about the level of high school boys).

They also compete extremely well in Ultramarathons.

 

[Anonymous]

This Roadhouse guy is Deadlift/Phantom Menace/LancesChammySniffer

Correctamundo!

 

[B.Rasmussen]

My ignore list is getting pretty full...

Yep, it's getting tiresome.

 

[53 x 11]

I personaly do not think the Masons and the Illuminati will let lance win Kona.


.....we have had this thread 5 times over! Not that I believe you really wants to discuss anything but DO A SEARCH.

 

[Galic Ho]

So who thinks what of the game plan? Can he win? Theories and thoughts?

The aussies will tear him apart. I went over this months back. Lance is an average runner at best. No way he finishes the marathon in under 3 hours 10 minutes. As I said months back, if he can finish in under 3 hours 20 minutes that is a solid race. Chrissie Wellington will probably beat him.

 

[Galic Ho]

well, i sure hope he brings the heat. i fully realize that he is close to being middle aged, just barely scratching that barrier, but it takes that kind of time to achieve that kind of strength and with his coaches, well, Anything is Possible.

now if he had chosen triathlons over tours than wouldn't it be safe to say that with his dedication to training, that he would now have eight straight Kona championships under his belt?

i'm a big Lance fan as are many of you and i just wish him the best is all.

Yet you ignored all the triathletes who are quality with your naive assertions. This isn't personal attack, but as someone who follows both sports (triathlon is the better sport IMO) I know what is needed to perform. Lance cannot do it. Swordsman explained part of it. Lance will make maybe 5 minutes, 10 if I'm being generous on the rest of the field on the bike (which is highly debatable). This is still not enough to negate his lack of swimming form and his below average running style.

Technique is not really important if you have a solid engine (VO2 max) in running. But it helps. We know Lance has a very high VO2max, but look at his marathon times. They were nothing special. Top 500 and 800 at Boston and New York, for the lone event. Please! As a fan perhaps you overlooked that. He should have done better, considering all the documentaries and spin spread to tell the world how physically superior he is. Lance's running technique is very poor. One of the rumours that was doing laps was that he stopped running because he was picking up injuries. Shin splints to be exact. The main cause. **** poor running technique. He'll bleed time in the marathon leg, which is ironically the most important.

Regarding my first sentence, triathlon has many people who dedicate their efforts and time to the four disciplines. They deserve their time in the sun. Eveyone knows Lance is an attention *****. He should stay away, regardless of some of the pro's saying his face would make a nice change (ie: rake in more vainity poaching sponsors). Triathlon does not need Lance. Besides, after Contador is finished with him this year, I doubt there will be much of your champ left. Getting his **** spanked at Kona will only serve to further dampen his mood.

 

[Galic Ho]

i don't get how cyclists can be so blind to tactics. didn't he also say that after he received death threats for racing in the 09 tour that he was not there to win? and what happended there? had Contador not been so inadequate to the the verdict of TEAM then it woulda been a 1,2,3 Astana and if Lance can podium after some years off in his first race back, its a win. and it was a win for him as him being team captain and Astana in first and third. yeah, i know what he is saying already and i see right through it.

Did you watch the Tour dopey? We've been over this for months. It is 2010, drop it. Look up the threads in the search bar if you want to reminisce. Remember the Schlecks? Who on Astana apart from Alberto could match Andy and the might of Saxo? Nobody. Drop it.

 

[Nick777]

Swim: 1.00 - for someone who has a distance swimming background, this would be a walk in the park.
Bike: 4.15 or so. I say he will be conservative & hold back a bit, and just do enough to take the course record.
Run: 3.30 at best. This is where he will find out how hard ironman is.
Transitions - let's say 10 mins..

Overall time - approx 9 hours. Chrissy Wellington territory...

 

[Smera1]

Yet you ignored all the triathletes who are quality with your naive assertions. This isn't personal attack, but as someone who follows both sports (triathlon is the better sport IMO) I know what is needed to perform. Lance cannot do it. Swordsman explained part of it. Lance will make maybe 5 minutes, 10 if I'm being generous on the rest of the field on the bike (which is highly debatable). This is still not enough to negate his lack of swimming form and his below average running style.

Technique is not really important if you have a solid engine (VO2 max) in running. But it helps. We know Lance has a very high VO2max, but look at his marathon times. They were nothing special. Top 500 and 800 at Boston and New York, for the lone event. Please! As a fan perhaps you overlooked that. He should have done better, considering all the documentaries and spin spread to tell the world how physically superior he is. Lance's running technique is very poor. One of the rumours that was doing laps was that he stopped running because he was picking up injuries. Shin splints to be exact. The main cause. **** poor running technique. He'll bleed time in the marathon leg, which is ironically the most important.

Regarding my first sentence, triathlon has many people who dedicate their efforts and time to the four disciplines. They deserve their time in the sun. Eveyone knows Lance is an attention *****. He should stay away, regardless of some of the pro's saying his face would make a nice change (ie: rake in more vainity poaching sponsors). Triathlon does not need Lance. Besides, after Contador is finished with him this year, I doubt there will be much of your champ left. Getting his **** spanked at Kona will only serve to further dampen his mood.

+1

Very well said. 100% agree wholehearthedly. Happy 2010 for you.