By how much will Contador win this year's Giro with?

[Netserk]

What do you think?

 

[Netserk]

Since I think Aru will be second and Alberto will take at least 2 minutes on him in the ITT, I think it's going to be thereabouts. Aru could gain some time in bonus seconds when Contador gifts him a stage or two, otherwise I don't expect Contador to lose time to neither Porte nor Aru in the third week.

If there was a hard MTF, I would expect him to do a Vuelta attack. Maybe he'll do so on Cervinia, but I think it's most likely he will finish at the same time as whoever of Aru and Porte that is best on each mountain stage.

 

[Eshnar]

Poll up and running

 

[Netserk]

Thanks Esh!

A shame it's no longer possible to make public polls. I take it you voted 1'30''-2'14''? (I took the option below)

 

[Eshnar]

Re:

Thanks Esh!

A shame it's no longer possible to make public polls. I take it you voted 1'30''-2'14''? (I took the option below)

yep

 

[jens_attacks]

Less than a minute on aru/porte

 

[LaFlorecita]

1'48" to be exact

 

[Netserk]

Maybe I should've done 30'' intervals

Just thought too many would vote 4'+ then...

 

[Pricey_sky]

If Porte does not have a bad day I think he will only win it by around a minute. Porte will will hold a little advantage after the TT but I think Contador will drop him next week and take over a minute on one of the final MTF's. Aru will lose a lot of time in the TT and I can't see him dropping Contador so could be over 2 minutes back.

 

[SafeBet]

A couple of minutes for me.

 

[phanatic]

If people are expecting a Contador victory of less than three minutes against these B-Squad captains, it's pretty obvious he doesn't have it this year.

 

[Netserk]

Re:

If people are expecting a Contador victory of less than three minutes against these B-Squad captains, it's pretty obvious he doesn't have it this year.

Or that he's saving himself as much as possible. What difference does it make to him if he wins by 2 or 6 minutes?

 

[Eyeballs Out]

If he wins by more than 3 mins he's probably got it wrong as far as doing the double is concerned. Ideally, a workmanlike victory here, then better in July

 

[Carols]

I went with 45"-1'29" because I think Alberto will get a decent lead and then just defend it with the Tour in mind. Hopefully the shoulder will assist him in ignoring those Attack, Attack thoughts when he doesn't need to attack, just defend.

 

[SeriousSam]

0-44 is a bit too close for comfort I think, so 45"-1'29" if he's strong enough. He's serious about the double, I hope. Part of me wants him to see go all out on a MTF so that we can see where his climbing is at compared to Richie and Fab, but because I want him to arrive at the Tour in top shape, I'm hoping that he has the maglia rosa after the ITT. Then he'll ride like in the Vuelta last year and the gaps will be modest.

 

[The Hitch]

En fait, I think it might be the more dominant he is the less he might win by. Not exactly, but what I mean is, if he wins the tt and has a 30 second advantage, he might be content to take say 30 seconds on the first mtf follow wheels on Aprica and might as well then follow wheels on Sestrieres which will be the last stage. No need for more.

If however he loses the jersey in the itt and can't take it back on Campiglio he's going to to "attack to crack" on Mortirolo and Finnestre and maybe early on the Cervina stage. In which case if he does succeed, he will drop his opponents 30k out on one of these stages or might even fatigue them out totally for the rest of the giro and could be more in the 3 -5 minute range once all is said and done.

For example. Conta had a slightly bigger advantage to 2nd place and an all round bigger advantage to the rest of the top 10 in 2012 when he was weaker, than 2014 when he was clearly the strongest rider in the race for the 2nd half.

 

[murali]

Re:

I went with 45"-1'29" because I think Alberto will get a decent lead and then just defend it with the Tour in mind. Hopefully the shoulder will assist him in ignoring those Attack, Attack thoughts when he doesn't need to attack, just defend.

same reason. but i think he will just keep lead above 30".

in some earlier mountain stage he is bound to make almost 2 minutes +/- 30 seconds lead over the rest. once he takes a good lead, he will just follow the best among the rest.


The lead with which Bertie wins giro will indicate how well-prepared he is for the double. If he wins with small margin, it means that he is saving energy for TdF. if he wins by a 2+ minutes advantage, it means that he isn't confident about doing the double. (if porte, aru and landa have a bad day one after another, then a 4+ lead is easily possible. but that's a big IF).

 

[TheGreenMonkey]

6+ minutes. He will make Aru and Porte cry for their mommies.

 

[WheelofGear]

Depends on how good he is going to be in the TT. Can he keep his lead against Lil' Richie?

He will beat Aru with 6 minutes (who will lose a lot in the TT) and Porte with 2-3 minutes (even though Aru is the better climber)..

 

[ILovecycling]

I predict one minute (on Aru).I expect Aru to lose some 30-40 secs to Contador.Then I hope he will only attack on Mortirolo and the rest of the giro goes piano.He needs to save him as much as possible, Tour will be a Huge task.

 

[Miburo]

Beyond me how some so called contador fans who i assume followed contador already for a while think he'll take 30-40 sec on aru in a 60 ITT.

Pretty hilarious.

 

[WheelofGear]

Re:

Beyond me how some so called contador fans who i assume followed contador already for a while think he'll take 30-40 sec on aru in a 60 ITT.

Pretty hilarious.

Yep, that's a very cautious, conservative guess IMO. I think he will take 3-4 minutes on Aru, maybe more.

 

[Miburo]

Contador is top 3 best GT ITT (GC contenders) of the last 10 years.

Even if he's not the same anymore as a few years ago, he's still a very good ITT especially in a ITT that comes after an already hard first part of the giro.

What is Aru?

 

[Carols]

Re:

Beyond me how some so called contador fans who i assume followed contador already for a while think he'll take 30-40 sec on aru in a 60 ITT.

Pretty hilarious.

????? where did anyone say that ????

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

Beyond me how some so called contador fans who i assume followed contador already for a while think he'll take 30-40 sec on aru in a 60 ITT.

Pretty hilarious.

I would normally say 1.5 to 2 minutes on Aru and equal to little richie (+/- 20s) but because Contador had to adjust his position I think 1 to 1.5 on Aru and 10-20s loss to Porte. I hope Berto can keep pink.