Can Frank Schleck and Denis Menchov win the vuelta?

May 27, 2010
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after seeing both of them not performing with the best. I am wondering if they are just not strong enough or they havent reached their form. because frank has only ridden 1 day before the vuelta and denis has done the tour.
 
Feb 14, 2010
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dlwssonic said:
after seeing both of them not performing with the best. I am wondering if they are just not strong enough or they havent reached their form. because frank has only ridden 1 day before the vuelta and denis has done the tour.
We'll have a better idea after the weekend, I think. Guys who rode the Tour, and especially Sastre, who also did the Giro, probably spent a lot of their time recovering, and would be looking to ride themselves into shape. Frank has had a ton of stress this year - a new baby, crashing out of the Tour, a wedding, and Team Luxembourg. If he trained well enough and can stay focused enough to win, I'd be pretty darned impressed. But will he "leave it on the road" for Saxo when he's switching teams next year? I'd like to see these guys amp things up to make it a race, but I'm picking Nibali for the win and hoping for a big performance from Roche.
 
I'd say that they still can... But they can't lose any more than a few seconds today, that's for sure. They both lost 19 seconds on the final 800m ramp in stage 4. If you multiply that over the Xorret de Cati then you obviously come close to a minute of lost time.... Which would, effectively, end both their chances I think.
 
Jun 16, 2009
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menchov yes. He is a great rider but he is never that great on short sharp climbs and that is what the Xorrett de cati is! If he lost 19 seconds on the stage anton won, then he better hope that was just his bad day. frank can't afford to be behind guys like Rodriguez and anton by 40 seconds. menchov can because of his itt skills over everyone in the field. But if both have a shocker on Xorrett de cati then it is good night.
 
Jan 19, 2010
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dlwssonic said:
Can Frank Schleck and Denis Menchov win the vuelta?
Technically, NO, Frank Schleck AND Denis Menchov cannot both win the Vuelta. There can be only one winner.

On the practical side, I don't think that Menchov has a chance. In the cleaning of the Peloton since his Giro win, his performances have fallen farther and farther behind. And, like we are seeing from Sastre too, performing at a top level in 2 GT's is very difficult (ask Wiggo), but trying to complete 3 and winning the last one is nearly impossible.

As for Schleck, I think that he has the better chance, especially if he prepared anything like Andy for the Tour. Frank is very fresh with minimal race days in him so far this year after crashing out on the 4th stage of the Tour. In the world of riding into shape during the race, Frank's body will likely respond much better than a Menchov of Sastre because it is not so overworked for the year.

Of course, my thoughts could be far from what really happens. We'll see.
 
This thread is confusing the hell out of me. Menchov and Fränk haven't performed with the best? Well, not with the very best, i.e. the punchy specialists, but they've been where they should. Menchov more so than Fränk, who contrary to Menchov should only get better as days go by.

Xorret de Cati is a longer climb and they both should be up there today.
 
Jan 11, 2010
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Squares said:
On the practical side, I don't think that Menchov has a chance. In the cleaning of the Peloton since his Vuelta win, his performances have fallen farther and farther behind. And, like we are seeing from Sastre too, performing at a top level in 2 GT's is very difficult (ask Wiggo), but trying to complete 3 and winning the last one is nearly impossible.
If by "fallen farther and farther behind" you mean that he's only gotten better, yeah, you're right. Could you be more ignorant about Menchov's results?
 
Jul 5, 2010
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They hardly lost any time so far. And the time they did lose was on those short climbs that don't really suit them that well. And Menchov still has that time trial to look forward to. With only 1:01 on Anton, I don't see the problem for him. Yet. We will know more by Monday.
 
Mar 31, 2010
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Squares said:
Technically, NO, Frank Schleck AND Denis Menchov cannot both win the Vuelta. There can be only one winner.

On the practical side, I don't think that Menchov has a chance. In the cleaning of the Peloton since his Giro win, his performances have fallen farther and farther behind. And, like we are seeing from Sastre too, performing at a top level in 2 GT's is very difficult (ask Wiggo), but trying to complete 3 and winning the last one is nearly impossible.
wow. I don't think you could be any more full of s*** if you tried
 
Mar 13, 2009
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Moondance said:
They both lost 19 seconds on the final 800m ramp in stage 4. If you multiply that over the Xorret de Cati then you obviously come close to a minute of lost time....
Yeah that's just not at all how it works though lol.

Menchov: probably yes

Fränk: at this point no one knows, even he doesn't. What he showed so far is promising, but soon we'll find out how his form really is.
 
Sep 25, 2009
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at this point, i see neither frank nor denis winning the vuelta. but it's too early to tell.

after this weekend and the stage 11, we'll know more.

however, i put denis's chances at a podium spot above frank's mainly because of the long itt. the main problem for menchov imo will be losing more valuable time to bonification rather than the road. he needs one killer stage to overcome the 2-3 bonification minutes he'll lose to punchier riders like anton and nibali.
 
Jul 16, 2010
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Menchov just isn't an explosive climber and he has already ridden the Tour. If he focused on the Vuelta instead of the Tour he would have most likely won(the Vuelta, not the stage).
 
Mar 11, 2009
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I expect Menchov to ride much better on the longer MTFs, but he's lost too much time already.
 
Jan 11, 2010
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El Pistolero said:
Menchov just isn't an explosive climber and he has already ridden the Tour. If he focused on the Vuelta instead of the Tour he would have most likely won(the Vuelta, not the stage).
Menchov can handle this stuff, don't underestimate him. Nibali is certainly not more explosive than Menchov, for instance. It's just a matter of form. Or his crash in the beginning of the stage affected him more than we know ATM.
 
May 28, 2010
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Well after today's stage there's no way either of them are going to win.

Shleck continued to be mediocre in the mountains, so I'd bet on him finishing top 10 but definitely not winning.

Menchov lost a substantial amount of time (can't find exactly how much just yet) and will not be a challenger for the overall...
 
Certainly a disappointing day for Menchov, finished 41st 0:03:44 down, now 20th overall 0:03:16 behind Anton, can still make the podium but recovering 3+ minutes on Nibali is going to be difficult especially since he's been resting since his stellar Giro.
 
Menchov? No way in hell. He's toast.

Frank Schleck? Sure.
Frank, Andy and Spart take to the head of the peloton. Andy dives off on a bend and blocks the narrow road, with about 20kms to go. Causes carnage.
Frank takes the first class train and wins the stage by 10 minutes!:D
 
Can't really see either of them being able to take back the time they've lost. 1:47 for Schleck, and 3:16 for Menchov.
Menchov had a pretty bad start with the TTT and hasn't really looked that great, unfortunately.
 
Jul 16, 2010
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No and no. Neither of them has looked all that good, unless they are just saving it all for some later date. It's possible if the top guys have serious crashes, injury or get really sick, but it seems unlikely for either of them at this point.
 
Jul 18, 2010
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Menchov injured his knee in one of the stage's early crashes and says he couldn't put the pressure needed on it to climb like he would've liked. Hopefully it isn't too serious and he'll be able to recover over the course of the Vuelta.

As it looks now though his chances of contending are pretty slim. Three minutes back on an on form Anton, Rodriguez and Nibali, especially Nibali, means he really has his work cut out for him.

I don't know what the hell Squares is talking about regarding Menchov.:confused:
 
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