Can IB beat AC/AS in TdF '11?

[Christian]

I remember back in '06 before he got busted I thought Basso would win the Tour and go on to become the new dominator.

Then of course he took a couple of years off, Contador and Schleck emerged.
2011 will be Basso's third year back and I feel like he has improved every year since 2008. His performance at Zoncolan this year and just in general throughout the Giro was pretty impressive to me.

Now the question is: will he finally make the Tour his main objective in 2011? He has a really strong team behind him, if they all commit to it: Nibali, Szmyd, Bennati. Plus, the Tour de France is the only GT missing in Liquigas' collection now ...

We all know about his climbing skills and he can TT better than AS ... but will he be able to beat him? Will he be able to make the duel into a battle of three?

I have to say I sure hope so: for one, I like the guy, for another, it'd make the Tour so much more exiting. I think he'd have a real shot if he tried!

 

[Mich78BEL]

Who knows, if he's in top form he's probably the only rider at the moment who can threaten Contador and Schleck in the Tour... He probably has only 1 or 2 chances left to win the Tour.

 

[Zoncolan]

No.
He can't climb with them, which will be evident next year.

We all know about his climbing skills and he can TT better than AS ... but will he be able to beat him? Will he be able to make the duel into a battle of three?

And no, he can't TT ever since he got busted. They're pretty equally matched these days, if anything AS ia a bit better.

 

[Christian]

No.
He can't climb with them, which will be evident next year.

And no, he can't TT ever since he got busted. They're pretty equally matched these days, if anything AS ia a bit better.

Yeah I'd agree about the climbing, he's not quite as good, but then again I'd say he has a very different style so it's hard to compare. I'd still say though if he has the Zoncolan form or even better, he can be up there with them. Maybe not quite but at least not far behind

And back in the '05 Tour he finished 5th in the final ITT behind Armstrong, Ulrich, Vino and Julich ... can't see AS putting in such a result in a 55 km ITT! Granted, that was before he got busted

 

[khardung la]

He is mentally weaker than Contador. He does not have the acceleration. He is inferior as a TTer.

Of course having a good year and Contador not being in top form anything could happen. For me the time of Basso passed some years ago, I hope other cyclists will put contador in trouble.

 

[The Hitch]

What does Basso do on mountain stages. He just continues to ride a tempo, best of all when he has teammates to set it for him. On the Terminillo Monte Grappa Gavia and Mortirolo he crossed the top with others. On the Zoncolan he didnt attack. Just waited for Evans to drop. Problem is on the ALpe or Galiber, his tempo just wont cut it. It wont drop Schleck and probably not Contador. And then what happens when Contador attacks? Basso wont be able to follow.

And its not like he is the best at pacing himself up climbs. Up most of them Szmyd did the job for the first half and he shared it with others for the rest. But despite being the best climber, he still lost 40 s to Evans on the Kronplatz tt.

Basso beating Schleck and contador in the mountains? I dont see it.

Besides dont underestimate how prestigious the Giro is to Italians and how important it must be to Basso. It must have eliminated all the pain when on the Zoncolan, after leaving the tunnel, hundreds of BASSO banners and thousands of fans. All despite his past sins.

Id say its likely he goes for the giro again next year, though i hope not because i would like to see someone else truimph.

 

[BroDeal]

Yeah I'd agree about the climbing, he's not quite as good, but then again I'd say he has a very different style so it's hard to compare. I'd still say though if he has the Zoncolan form or even better, he can be up there with them. Maybe not quite but at least not far behind

Even if Basso has Zoncolan form at the Tour, there won't be a Zoncolan for him to use it on. No matter what his form is, he cannot put time into the contenders on the <10% climbs that are adored by the race director of the TdF.

 

[Cobblestoned]

Why not ?
But I think he is too much "Diesel" (but a great Diesel) for taking much time out of these two.
His riding style is more "make them crack" than "attacking". The explosiveness is missing, but even with a very constant performance you can win a GT by just not losing much time.

And yess, there is still the TT. Thats the main reason why I am more pessimistic than optimistic. Perhaps he can equal Schleck there on a good day, but he'll never beat Contador.

 

[sublimit]

Contador doesnt get dropped on climbs. Basso can get a podium position but no.

Maybe a Colombian rider can get Contador in trouble by going flat out from the bottom but who knows.

 

[theswordsman]

If the thread is still active I'll respond after the TdF course presentation. Right now we don't know if it's suited for anyone, or who all Contador might have on his squad. Liquigas will definitely have a solid team.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

He has a really strong team behind him, if they all commit to it: Nibali, Szmyd, Bennati.

What?

 

[royalpig180]

I hope he chooses to focus on the TdF, partially because I want Nibali to lead Liquigas at the Giro...

But really, if Basso ever wants to take a real shot at the TdF, he needs to focus his season around it. I think it makes sense for Liquigas to have Nibali to Giro/Vuelta again and have Basso do the Tour

I don't think he'll topple Contador or Shleck unless he regains the TT form he had before his suspension, but he could definitely make the podium

 

[Christian]

What?

Well, you know - for the sprints.

 

[The Hitch]

If the thread is still active I'll respond after the TdF course presentation. Right now we don't know if it's suited for anyone, or who all Contador might have on his squad. Liquigas will definitely have a solid team.

Stage 1 - 10 flat with 1 cat 1 mtf. A 20km ttt on stage 3 where Basso could take time out of contador
stage 11- 21

Flat or hilly. For the gc a Galibier mtf and a Alpe d huez mtf. One stage where the mt is 30km from the finish.

one 50km itt.

So basically for the gc you have 2 hors cat mtfs (alp d huez and Galiber), a cat 1 mtf, and a hc 30k from finish mtf. You have 1 long itt for Contador to take time and 1 medium ttt for Basso to take time.

There it is. For me this is not a course on which Basso can beat Contador.

 

[hrotha]

Maybe we should have a "design an anti-Contador course" thread.

 

[c&cfan]

there isnt a GT course wher contador is not the fav anymore.. simple as that, in theory any smart person will bet on contador for at least the next 6 years or more (1 or 2).

basso had everything for a double in 06. basso had everything to dominate that year and perhaps 07.

 

[luckyboy]

I said before the Tour that Menchov is the only guy who would've been close. Maybe if we get two decent sized TT's next year, we will see what might happen.

Anyway, I don't think Basso will get close unless, as others have said, he gets his TTing back. Can't really see anyone else unless Gesink & co. (other young guys) step up.

Edit: Sorry, I always forget Gesink's age, still only 24..

 

[roundabout]

Let's just say that there's a section on this forum devoted to reasons why Basso won't beat Contador and Schleck.

 

[luckyboy]

http://forum.cyclingnews.com/forumdisplay.php?f=18 ?

 

[Climbing]

I hope Basso goes to TdF, that way Nibali will get a chance at Giro!
By the way if there was a Zoncolan type climb at Tour... maybe but even so Contador seems unbeatable, and there is always ITT where now he sucks big time.
In perfect form, prepared for TdF with a good team, maybe he could have a shot.
It mostly depens on the design of the stages.

But I don't know who goes where, Nibali or Basso TdF or Giro, they do not seem sure yet (well it's a long way to next year).

 

[The Hitch]

Maybe we should have a "design an anti-Contador course" thread.

Giro 2010

Might have lost time to Schleck on Strade Bianchi. Not enough Itt km. Would not have beaten Schleck on Zoncolan. He got 8 seconds on Ricco on the Kronplatz but i dont think he would gain time on Schleck there. Could have gained time on Terminillo but would have been a birt early. Might have even lost time on Mortirolo despite the descent.

 

[The Hitch]

Edit: Sorry, I always forget Gesink's age, still only 24..

Did you get an angry pm from dekker t

 

[BigBoat]

I remember back in '06 before he got busted I thought Basso would win the Tour and go on to become the new dominator.

Then of course he took a couple of years off, Contador and Schleck emerged.
2011 will be Basso's third year back and I feel like he has improved every year since 2008. His performance at Zoncolan this year and just in general throughout the Giro was pretty impressive to me.

Now the question is: will he finally make the Tour his main objective in 2011? He has a really strong team behind him, if they all commit to it: Nibali, Szmyd, Bennati. Plus, the Tour de France is the only GT missing in Liquigas' collection now ...

We all know about his climbing skills and he can TT better than AS ... but will he be able to beat him? Will he be able to make the duel into a battle of three?

I have to say I sure hope so: for one, I like the guy, for another, it'd make the Tour so much more exiting. I think he'd have a real shot if he tried!

I think it depends on how Contrador comes into the Tour. If he came in like this year a little "off" then Basso could get him in the Individual TTs if we saw the 2006 Basso in the TTs.

I dont know if Basso's interested in the TDF...he has not shown much interest since his bust > he does not want to be accused of doping by anybody in the media because then the UCI MIGHT bust him again for good PR.

 

[Ferminal]

No, but I can't say more outside of The Clinic.

 

[marioni]

No way, I can't see Basso touching Contador next year.