Can Robbie McEwan go out with a World Championship

[brianf7]

Can Robbie realy win this one next year. I live in Geelong so what are his hopes . In September October we can have 4 seasons in a day. the wind can blow up to 60-70 Knots. we dont get much rain but it could all fall in one day.
Robbie is a Queenslander he likes sun & surf but if he is still there at the last 1 km to go all he has to do is sprint up the hill with hopefully the prevailing wind behind him

 

[Francois the Postman]

No. [ah, need 10 characters: still no].

 

[Francois the Postman]

When Geelong freezes over.

 

[Anonymous]

cav led out by the british team sky boys, and then joins sky for 2011.. robbies best hope is to grab his seatpost..

 

[ak-zaaf]

cav led out by the british team sky boys, and then joins sky for 2011.. robbies best hope is to grab his seatpost..

Cav doesn't have the team for that. Spain and Italy will do everything they can to make the race so hard there will be max 10 riders in the first group.
Nobody wants to take that guy to the line. Cav might come a long way, but he'll be on his own and will have to get every escape back.
I think I even give sprinter-guys like Haussler or Breschel a bigger chance.

 

[sida-mot]

I hope he does even though I wouldn't consider him a favorite. He deserves to go out with a bang after last season...

 

[maltiv]

Looking at the profile, it seems like a slightly uphill finish, but does anyone know how steep it actually is? With an uphill finish and a not so dominant team, Cav for example certainly won't have it easy. Seems like the course would favor guys like Thor Hushovd more.

I doubt McEwan will have any chance whatsoever, with so many powerful sprinters who now are better than him both at sprinting and at climbing.

 

[Angliru]

No. He's on the downward slope of a great career. He hasn't shown the ability to compete with the current crop of elite sprinters and they will all be motivated with the sprinter friendly course for the 2010 World's. McEwen will of course be motivated too, it being on his home turf, but let's not get too excited by Evans' win all you Aussies and think that it is the beginning of an Australian juggernaut of professional cycling dominance. McEwen was never one to win any of the big one day races. He's primarily a very resourceful winner of flat stages of stage races, nothing more.

If it is in fact an uphill finish, I would have to go with either Hushovd or Freire if he's recovered from whatever ailed him in 2009. Freire tends to have one good year followed by an injury plagued one so 2010 would seem to be his year. Cav is accustomed to the train that Columbia provides to lead him to the line. This will be very hard to replicate on his national team.

 

[zapata]

There was talk of radios being banned in the worlds. Do we know if that's definitely decided yet? If so, what impact do you think it would have on the race? Bit of a fiasco when they tried it in the TdF, but this is the world championship..If it can prevent a bunch sprint, I'm all for it.

 

[Anonymous]

Looking at the profile, it seems like a slightly uphill finish, but does anyone know how steep it actually is? With an uphill finish and a not so dominant team, Cav for example certainly won't have it easy. Seems like the course would favor guys like Thor Hushovd more.

the halfords lead out train will get him close.. dont you worry..

they said he wouldnt make the hills at milan st remo... its almost a year away, cav will be a different rider then to this year, just as this year he was a different rider to last year..

Kennaugh, geraint, downing, cummings will get him within a K or 2 dont worry..

 

[cyclegeek]

Man that would be great for Robbie. His chances are small but I would never count him out if he's ridin. Like a terrier never quits.

 

[titan_90]

I think it would be a popular win but, I just don't see it happening for him. I am sure he has a few wins left in him but he is just getting too old. He has had a great career but it would be a great way to go out.

 

[brianf7]

The finish is a power climb big ring with 14-17 sprocked.

Geelongs spring weather is waht will decide this it can be warm and sunny or wet and windy. Prevailing wind is North west cold straight of Corio Bay with 60 knots up his bum Robbie can win it. He just got to wrap his brain around it first he hates the Victorian cold weather he much prefers laying on the beach ar Surfers Paridise.
Well who wouldnt.

He can look forward to that after he wins it.

There no lamp posts or plant pots on the course that Robbie can crash into.

 

[auscyclefan94]

No. He's on the downward slope of a great career. He hasn't shown the ability to compete with the current crop of elite sprinters and they will all be motivated with the sprinter friendly course for the 2010 World's. McEwen will of course be motivated too, it being on his home turf, but let's not get too excited by Evans' win all you Aussies and think that it is the beginning of an Australian juggernaut of professional cycling dominance. McEwen was never one to win any of the big one day races. He's primarily a very resourceful winner of flat stages of stage races, nothing more.

If it is in fact an uphill finish, I would have to go with either Hushovd or Freire if he's recovered from whatever ailed him in 2009. Freire tends to have one good year followed by an injury plagued one so 2010 would seem to be his year. Cav is accustomed to the train that Columbia provides to lead him to the line. This will be very hard to replicate on his national team.

Actually i had a look at the course yesterday and i must say that if it comes down to a sprint, that it will have timed perfectly, as the final straight is at 4% -5%. The last few kilometres have some really skinny roads that only 1 car could fit through. The main climb has some parts of 12-13% but the are in the first half of the course.

If it comes down to a sprint I would go with Hushovd, but if someone is going to win solo i would pick sanchez. He could get away on the climb, gap the field on the descent and on the skinny roaded parts of the course the peleton will have trouble getting through and he would solo to victory.
There are also a lot of traffic islands compared to europe in the middle of the road and the final straight has a traffic island right through the middle of the road.
The TT course is quite undulating and their will be some cross winds and a few head winds the riders may have to deal with.
The part whch is in Geelong is run on mostly suburban streets so it will look a little different on TV compared to a worlds course in Switzerland. A lot more housing.
i think we should get excited. led the tally at the road, track and MTB world championship medal tally and 3rd best country in the world due to the UCI Protour. it's a shame though we can't get any coorporate sponsors involved to fund a pro team.

If anyone would like to look at the profile and gradient of the course here's the link; (Hit annotated link for gradient)
Geelong Men's Road Race Course

Men & Women's time trial course

 

[Kingsley A]

the halfords lead out train will get him close.. dont you worry..

they said he wouldnt make the hills at milan st remo... its almost a year away, cav will be a different rider then to this year, just as this year he was a different rider to last year..

Kennaugh, geraint, downing, cummings will get him within a K or 2 dont worry..

I'd like to think you were right and given that Cav has shown he can beat Thor on an uphill sprint without a lead-out (Tour of Missouri) if it does come to a bunch sprint he has to be favourite.

I just doubt that Team GB has enough strength to pull back breakaways to force the bunch sprint on their own. Will the Aussies actually try to work to possition Sutton and Renshaw to lead out McEwen knowing Cav is there? Or will they be more interested in looking to send Gerrans off the front? Similarly with the Belgians and Gilbert. I find it hard to believe that Petacchi or Chicchi will be the main protected rider in the Italian squad. Likewise, even if they manage to put together a much stronger team than they did this year, I find it hard to believe the yanks will put all their eggs in the Farrar basket, given that he has only beaten Cav once in all their meetings.

It's only the Germans that I can see who would be likely to work with GB and that's mainly because Greipel is the only world class sprinter who has never lost to Cav. (I hope it does come down to a sprint finish because I want to see these team-mates go at each other!)

If it does come to a sprint finish McEwan has a chance but won't be the favourite. I just don't see any team other than GB and maybe Germany working for it to be such unless they have resorted to their plan B.

 

[auscyclefan94]

I'd like to think you were right and given that Cav has shown he can beat Thor on an uphill sprint without a lead-out (Tour of Missouri) if it does come to a bunch sprint he has to be favourite.

I just doubt that Team GB has enough strength to pull back breakaways to force the bunch sprint on their own. Will the Aussies actually try to work to possition Sutton and Renshaw to lead out McEwen knowing Cav is there? Or will they be more interested in looking to send Gerrans off the front? Similarly with the Belgians and Gilbert. I find it hard to believe that Petacchi or Chicchi will be the main protected rider in the Italian squad. Likewise, even if they manage to put together a much stronger team than they did this year, I find it hard to believe the yanks will put all their eggs in the Farrar basket, given that he has only beaten Cav once in all their meetings.

It's only the Germans that I can see who would be likely to work with GB and that's mainly because Greipel is the only world class sprinter who has never lost to Cav. (I hope it does come down to a sprint finish because I want to see these team-mates go at each other!)

If it does come to a sprint finish McEwan has a chance but won't be the favourite. I just don't see any team other than GB and maybe Germany working for it to be such unless they have resorted to their plan B.

THey won't send gerrans up the road, more likely rogers as he isn't seen as a threat but for australia's sake he could ride away. I pesonally think that the Australians, Italians, Belgians and maybe the spanish might try to rip it up on the climb if they want a sprint so they can get rid of Cav but all those teams have guys who can ride away on the climbs as well (Evans, Gilbert, Cunego and Sanchez/Valverde). I agree that the Brits and Germans will have to work together as they have only 1 option. I think if Mcewen has a chance in the sprint at the worlds we'll really have to wait and see at the Giro. WE can't judge how well he's going to comeback. WE can't also forget how dominant in the sprints this guy has been.

 

[brianf7]

But if the wind blows on the road from Melbourne to Geelong it can make for a very tired feild by half way so who will be there . This is more like a Flemish classic race pleanty of flat very open road and very strong winds.
Or it can be as calm as a duck pond.
The weather will be a big part in tactics but as previously stated it can change 4 times in a day.

 

[Galic Ho]

Cav doesn't have the team for that. Spain and Italy will do everything they can to make the race so hard there will be max 10 riders in the first group.
Nobody wants to take that guy to the line. Cav might come a long way, but he'll be on his own and will have to get every escape back.
I think I even give sprinter-guys like Haussler or Breschel a bigger chance.

Thats my take on it as well. Nobody will help the Brits with Cav racing. I rate Haussler the best chance of an aussie winning on home soil. Hope the team see's it that way and supports him. Now to get that license switch happening.

 

[flicker]

McKuen NOT

To old for one thing. Main thing is he ripped the fu ck out of his knee. and I don't see him with results this year although good on him for pulling another years contact.

Best to Haussler, he deserves it. Could be Bosan Hagen or Cav or Cancellara though. EPO boys REbbelin and BETTini are gone sionara.

 

[Psalmon]

Variable weather, winds and that finish. Seems like a race for the "hard men" of the pack. Maybe Cancellara gets in there and powers out the finish. He was around at the end this year. Don't know about that climb though.

How 'bout even Evans repeats? Woah. Could O'Grady manage it, assuming he's ok? - haven't heard any updates.

In any case, doesn't seem RM's style of course with the hill and a right hander 900 m from the finish.

 

[BroDeal]

II find it hard to believe the yanks will put all their eggs in the Farrar basket, given that he has only beaten Cav once in all their meetings.

Who else could we support that might actually show up at the worlds? Tommy D.? Retirement Shack will pretty much retire for the season at the end of July. Farrar is what is left.

 

[maltiv]

I'd like to think you were right and given that Cav has shown he can beat Thor on an uphill sprint without a lead-out (Tour of Missouri) if it does come to a bunch sprint he has to be favourite.

I just doubt that Team GB has enough strength to pull back breakaways to force the bunch sprint on their own. Will the Aussies actually try to work to possition Sutton and Renshaw to lead out McEwen knowing Cav is there? Or will they be more interested in looking to send Gerrans off the front? Similarly with the Belgians and Gilbert. I find it hard to believe that Petacchi or Chicchi will be the main protected rider in the Italian squad. Likewise, even if they manage to put together a much stronger team than they did this year, I find it hard to believe the yanks will put all their eggs in the Farrar basket, given that he has only beaten Cav once in all their meetings.

It's only the Germans that I can see who would be likely to work with GB and that's mainly because Greipel is the only world class sprinter who has never lost to Cav. (I hope it does come down to a sprint finish because I want to see these team-mates go at each other!)

If it does come to a sprint finish McEwan has a chance but won't be the favourite. I just don't see any team other than GB and maybe Germany working for it to be such unless they have resorted to their plan B.

Well Cavendish was 16th in the uphill finish at Tour de France, that's not exactly promising. Who cares about Tour of Missouri- the next day hushovd beat cavendish in a flat sprint, that doesn't mean he's better at flat sprints than cav...

But honestly I don't think it will be a bunch sprint, rather a sprint in a group of 10-15.

 

[stefrees]

Well Cavendish was 16th in the uphill finish at Tour de France, that's not exactly promising. Who cares about Tour of Missouri- the next day hushovd beat cavendish in a flat sprint, that doesn't mean he's better at flat sprints than cav...

But honestly I don't think it will be a bunch sprint, rather a sprint in a group of 10-15.

stage 11 was uphill, beat hushovd easily.

norway will want to work for the sprint aswell, boassan hagen to lead out hushovd? norway will have a great chance. ciolek to lead out griepel? that would be great too. gb wont be a weak team either, wiggo, millar, thomas and cummings will be much improved on the less hilly circuit than mendriso and will be excellent at working for a sprint, as well will hammond. swift to lead cav out.

 

[ak-zaaf]

stage 11 was uphill, beat hushovd easily.

norway will want to work for the sprint aswell, boassan hagen to lead out hushovd? norway will have a great chance. ciolek to lead out griepel? that would be great too. gb wont be a weak team either, wiggo, millar, thomas and cummings will be much improved on the less hilly circuit than mendriso and will be excellent at working for a sprint, as well will hammond. swift to lead cav out.

Again, not a single nation wants to take on Cav in a sprint. Why have EBH lead-out Hushovd for second if EBH can win a sprint himself in a smaller group after a tough race?
Greipel might feel confident, so that leaves us with England and Germany trying to keep the Spanish and Italian riders from escaping.
You never know at the worlds, sometimes we get a bunch sprint on a really tough parcours, but that was when at least 3 strong nations had a contender in a bunch sprint.

 

[maltiv]

stage 11 was uphill, beat hushovd easily.

norway will want to work for the sprint aswell, boassan hagen to lead out hushovd? norway will have a great chance. ciolek to lead out griepel? that would be great too. gb wont be a weak team either, wiggo, millar, thomas and cummings will be much improved on the less hilly circuit than mendriso and will be excellent at working for a sprint, as well will hammond. swift to lead cav out.

It was uphill, but only like 2-3% max.

If Norway can send EBH into a breakaway, they definitely won't work for a sprint, as EBH is close to unbeatable in a small group. All the other teams who have a great sprinter, also have someone who's strong enough in the hills to go with a breakaway, except from maybe gb. It might end up with only gb wanting to pull it together, and I don't think they can manage that on their own.

Then again, lots of things may be changed until then, and it's really kind of pointless to discuss this already when it's almost 1 year to go