Can TGBM win La Vuelta a Espana? - BE SERIOUS!

[auscyclefan94]

Can TGBM (The Great Bauke Mollema) win La Vuelta a Espana? - BE SERIOUS!

 

[hrotha]

Well, it's not impossible, but I don't think his prospects are that good. He's never been in this situation before. He didn't ride anything between the Tour and the Vuelta, but he's one of the few guys up there who has the full Tour in his legs (others being Zubeldia, Fuglsang and Monfort), which could be a handicap. He's a decent time-trialist so he'll probably still be in a good position after tomorrow's stage, but I don't see it. Top 5 should be possible though.

 

[auscyclefan94]

He seems to be climbing very well. He was very good on the short sharp finishes and did a great ride yesterday. It IS possible!

 

[Moondance]

Setting aside the Dutch Mafia act... No, I don't think so. I think Nibali at least is consistent enough to beat him, and Wigans looked spectacular today (although I stil think he'll suffer badly on the Angliru)

Although his 'main opposition' at the moment, Neebs, Wigans, Purito, Fuglsang, Scarponi, Menchov, and VDB2 (perhaps Irish Martin can be counted as well) have all shown weakness in at least one of the uphill finishes so far. Mollema has been up there each time. He'll lose quite a bit tomorrow to Wigans and Menchov, and it will be up to the remain steep finishes for him to make the differences there. If he can clamp onto Wigans for the steady climbs, and Purito on the steep stuff he could podium or even better.... Possible he wins.... Yes, I guess in a statistical sense it's possible, but so unlikely I voted no anyhow.

 

[luckyboy]

Poll should read 'will' not 'can'.

I think he can, but it's a very long shot, and who knows how he will cope with the rest of the mountains after racing the Tour.

 

[LukeSchmid]

Very close to voting yes, but voted no, I still doubt he has it to last every climb, will lose time somewhere.

 

[Fergoose]

Extremely unlikely, but yes, of course it is possible. There are probably only Nibali, Rodriguez, Wiggins, Menchov, Van den Broeck and Scarponi left out of the original contenders who can realistically win it (and of them I think only Nibali, Wiggins, Menchov and VdB could be described as having a "realistic chance" of overall victory now). Mollema has done well on the steep stuff and on the even steeper stuff and can apparently do a decent time trial. Plus he seems to have a burst that has already got him sizeable time bonuses and Rabobank looks capable of providing a lot of assistance.

All of the above (except Mollema) have lost decent time on one stage or another and all are capable of having a bad day in the weeks ahead - there is absolutely no stellar contender in this Vuelta, with all prone to inconsistency. The chances of them all having one disasterous day and Mollema not having one seems highly unlikely. But you can't rule it out.

On the other hand there are other rank outsiders that, like Mollema, can't be totally ruled out too; Kessiakoff, Froome (if Wiggins bombs) and possibly Fuglsang, Nieve & Cobo. We seem to be adding almost as many challengers as we are losing. If Mollema can get a top 10, he'll be doing brilliantly.

 

[roundabout]

He looked very good so far. Question is how bad will he be on a bad day. That can be important.

 

[ImmaculateKadence]

He can, but not this year. I just assumed the poll was referring to this year, so I said no. I think Nibali will win it again. Prove he didn't just inherit the win after Anton's misfortune last year.

Ultimately though, TGBM can win the Vuelta....eventually.

 

[Anonymous]

He can win but he will not win.

 

[cineteq]

He can win but he will not win.

Gee, you posted my answer first.

Seriously ACF, I doubt you are being serious posting this poll. The TGBM is putting a great performance, but this is a 3-week race. A more interesting poll would be if Wiggins can win. That's a real possibility.

 

[l.Harm]

No. Podium would be great, but other riders are just better and more developed.

 

[Greenflame]

The odds on him winning are extremely small. At the moment, Wiggins and Nibali are in the best positions, with VDB looking good as well. Scarponi, Rodriguez and Menchov have a good shot as well. Mollema comes on my list of favourites after all these.

Yes, he can win. But that is very unlikely to happen. He's on his way to a solid top-10 finish which is an excellent achievement for someone his age, especially with a Tour in the legs.

 

[daveinzambia]

Should have a much better idea after tomorrow but cannot see why not. he seems to be able to stay with the best on all the climbs, has not made any mistakes and kept himself in the right place at the right time, and also has the slight advantage (up till today maybe) that maybe the others are not paying that much attention to him.

all depends on how much time he loses tomorrow

 

[Mambo95]

Can he? Yes, of course

Will he? I very much doubt it.

 

[spanky wanderlust]

poll is pretty limited. yes or no does not mean much. i voted yes because it is technically possible. but not at all likely.

he is in with a shot. but honestly i think he'd be thrilled to just wear the red, even if just for a day.

now, that jvdb is a different story....

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Gonna say no.
Podium is a chance. He will have to ride very well tho.

Impressive stuff.

 

[Ferminal]

Yes, but today is everything, needs a top20, which he can do.

 

[jobiwan]

Sure he CAN, but I'll let Angry Lu decide if he WILL!

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Can, and try he will. Do, or do not. There is no try. Yoda says he will not.

 

[crapna]

At least Nibali and his Sidis will drop far behind TGBM.

 

[theyoungest]

Of course he can. If he goes on like this, why not? He's the only guy that was with the best on the super steep walls ánd the tempo climbs. For the people that doubt his ability to last three weeks: he got 12th in his first GT, and should have been in the top-10 without the Aquila disaster.

However, he tends to get sick a lot. That's been his kryptonite since having mono.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Of course he can. If he goes on like this, why not? He's the only guy that was with the best on the super steep walls ánd the tempo climbs. For the people that doubt his ability to last three weeks: he got 12th in his first GT, and should have been in the top-10 without the Aquila disaster.

However, he tends to get sick a lot. That's been his kryptonite since having mono.

I'm just a little worried about the tour hitting him at some point.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

As most have said, sure he can. It's theoretically a possibility. And actually I have quite a bit of faith in him. As theyoungest mentioned, he's been one of the most consistent (and best) climbers and if he can do a reasonable ITT today I wouldn't be surprised to see him podium.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Apologies on the badly worded poll question

Gee, you posted my answer first.

Seriously ACF, I doubt you are being serious posting this poll. The TGBM is putting a great performance, but this is a 3-week race. A more interesting poll would be if Wiggins can win. That's a real possibility.

It was a little bit in jest but the way he is riding at the moment certainly indicates that he has a chance. He was going very well on the steep climbs and now he has gone well on the long climbs. I think it is between TGBM, Nibali, JVDB, Rodriguez and Wiggins.