Commonwealth Games Road Races (men and women)

Yes, I know, these are pretty unremarkable races with lineups to match but for those of us in this part of the world it is at least a chance to watch cycling live without being a zombie at work the next day. Also, the 2014 mens road race was terrific (Geraint Thomas winning despite a having to stop for a mechanical in the last couple of kilometres) but that was more to do with the appalling weather conditions which obviously won't be at play here.

I can't find a course profile but it appears to be pretty flat (the finish certainly is) and the order of favouritism (Chloe Hosking and Adam Blythe head the markets) suggest it's expected to be a sprint of some size.

Anyone have any thoughts?
 
I wouldn't be so sure about it being sprint. Small teams and quite a wide range of abilities will break it up. The 2010 race was held on probably the flatest circuit ever devised but it broke up a lot and turned out to be a terrific race. Only five riders finished within a minute of the winner.
 
Re:

Parker said:
I wouldn't be so sure about it being sprint. Small teams and quite a wide range of abilities will break it up. The 2010 race was held on probably the flatest circuit ever devised but it broke up a lot and turned out to be a terrific race. Only five riders finished within a minute of the winner.
You're absolutely right about 2010 (if I recall correctly Cavendish was a hot favourite - like 2012 Olympics). These races indeed are usually uncontrollable and I too fancy a strong rider more than a fast one.

2014 was not dissimilar. Caleb Ewan was the favourite as many thought Dennis, Renshaw, Clarke etc would be able to keep it together for sprint but it became immensely selective and Geraint Thomas (6-1) was by far the strongest.

Obviously it won't be quite so selective this year but I certainly won't be backing Adam Blythe myself.
 
18.8km circuit.

2 short climbs.
At 5.3km into circuit: 0.38km @ 9.5%
At 7.7km into circuit: 1.10km @ 6.8% (average) - it's in 2 parts with ~150m flatter bit in the middle.

Then a 700m rise of 3.2% average but variable that ends with 1.5km to go. Last chance for a bit of a break for non sprinters.

 
Parker said:
Luke Rowe at 25/1 is a nice bet with the bookies for arguably the best one day racer in the field (admittedly I'm a bias Welshman). Shame they only let me bet 80p.
The course is too short and flat for Rowe. If they used the women’s TT course and made it 200kms then it would be more suited.
 
Parker said:
Luke Rowe at 25/1 is a nice bet with the bookies for arguably the best one day racer in the field (admittedly I'm a bias Welshman). Shame they only let me bet 80p.
I kinda like Rowe too. Sure, it probably won't be hard enough but that is more than reflected in the price. Jack Bauer is the one I've settled on though. Solid WT rider who is one of few who treats this race as meaningful.
 
The Barb said:
Parker said:
Luke Rowe at 25/1 is a nice bet with the bookies for arguably the best one day racer in the field (admittedly I'm a bias Welshman). Shame they only let me bet 80p.
I kinda like Rowe too. Sure, it probably won't be hard enough but that is more than reflected in the price. Jack Bauer is the one I've settled on though. Solid WT rider who is one of few who treats this race as meaningful.
I think for the likes of Rowe and Cavendish (and Thomas before) there's a real pride in representing their small part of Team GB. You don't get it with England (at least not with cycling - watch out for Ian Bibby though). I often go to the National Sports Centre in Cardiff and there's a big mural outside the changing rooms of Thomas winning in 2014. For the general Welsh public it means more than E3 or Paris-Nice.

As for the race itself. I will be surprised if a group of more than ten come to the finish. Australia clearly have the super team, but can they guarantee to out-sprint Blythe?
 

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