Comprehensive Climbers Ranking

[Red Rick]

I don't obsess over W/kg numbers. I look at relative performances like you, and then add the index of Peyresourde to inform my thinking.

The field in general is very bad. Only Martinez and Lipo who are decent climbers. 15-20 seconds on Lipowitz today is underwhelming imo. The rest of the field were riding tactical.

Agree with the bolded bit. Looking at it again, I can't really find a reason though other than the field is pretty weak and leadout was probably slow. Big group of average riders going far up the climb together.

Once again the absence of a MTF to judge the rest of the field because they're just chilling in their groups.

 

[Peyresourde]

I don't obsess over W/kg numbers. I look at relative performances like you, and then add the index of Peyresourde to inform my thinking.

The field in general is very bad. Only Martinez and Lipo who are decent climbers. 15-20 seconds on Lipowitz today is underwhelming imo. The rest of the field were riding tactical.

Agree with the bolded bit. Looking at it again, I can't really find a reason though other than the field is pretty weak and leadout was probably slow. Big group of average riders going far up the climb together.

Martinez is a unipuerto specialist.

The field is 'always bad'. Who are the good climbers right now (that are not injured)? Lipowitz is 4th best in the world and after that it is all bunched up. If you look at gaps, you also have to look at the length of the climb. 1 minute on a 20 minute climb is a lot (+the drafting differential). Lipowitz is clearly on good form.

 

[Red Rick]

Martinez is a unipuerto specialist.

The field is 'always bad'. Who are the good climbers right now (that are not injured)? Lipowitz is 4th best in the world and after that it is all bunched up. If you look at gaps, you also have to look at the length of the climb. 1 minute on a 20 minute climb is a lot (+the drafting differential). Lipowitz is clearly on good form.

The one thing you often get in regards to gaps is groups further behind will not go at the max pace for the better riders in that group because they don't wanna isolate themselves.

 

[Pozzovivo]

Martinez is a unipuerto specialist.

The field is 'always bad'. Who are the good climbers right now (that are not injured)? Lipowitz is 4th best in the world and after that it is all bunched up. If you look at gaps, you also have to look at the length of the climb. 1 minute on a 20 minute climb is a lot (+the drafting differential). Lipowitz is clearly on good form.

Maybe that is his forte, but Martinez won the queen stage ahead of Almeida last year. That was hardly a unipuerto. Lenny boy was also good in Catalunya this year on attritional mtn stages.

I'm not sure I understand the "field is alway bad comment". I think races like Catalunya and Tirreno had much deeper fields of top climbers than this Romandie. Basque country on paper as well, although several dropped out. Imo, the strength of the field gives weight to the performances. The deeper the field, the more sure one can be that the winner did a really good performance. Maybe Lipo is in top shape and that is enough.

Agree with the bolded point of course. I recall Pogacar dropping lipowitz by 1 minute 20 seconds on a Combloux (20 min climb ish). 15 seconds today does not move me that much. Of course Pogacar will improve the next month, but this week was just way below my expecation.

If Seixas or top prep vingegaard was here - I think they have Pogacar beaten.

For reference, how good was Pogacar on Capegna in 22? Took one minute out of a really good field in spring.

 

[Red Rick]

Maybe that is his forte, but Martinez won the queen stage ahead of Almeida last year. That was a hardly a unipuerto.

I'm not sure I understand the "field is alway bad comment". I think races like Catalunya and Tirreno had much deeper fields of top climbers than this Romandie. Basque country on paper as well, although several dropped out. Imo, the strength of the field gives weight to the performances. The deeper the field, the more sure one can be that the winner did a really good performance. Maybe Lipo is in top shape and that is enough.

Agree with the bolded point of course. I recall Pogacar dropping lipowitz by 1 minute 20 seconds on a Combloux (20 min climb ish). 15 seconds today does not move me that much. Of course Pogacar will improve the next month, but this week was just way below my expecation.

If Seixas or top prep vingegaard was here - I think they have Pogacar beaten.

For reference, how good was Pogacar on Capegna in 22? Took one minute out of a really good field in spring.

Carpegna was like 6.5 for 20 with everyone else doing dreadful numbers because it was freezing rain

 

[Pozzovivo]

Carpegna was like 6.5 for 20 with everyone else doing dreadful numbers because it was freezing rain

No rain, but it was crazy cold that day, that's for sure. Still, it really was an elite field and big gaps between several groups. That performance stands out as much better than today's despite what the pure numbers say.

Pog in Catalunya 24', Vingegaard in Tirreno 24' and Basque 23', and Seixas this year, all impressed me more than Pogacar this Romandie.

I'm trying to summon some hope for a closer battle this summer.

 

[Peyresourde]

Maybe that is his forte, but Martinez won the queen stage ahead of Almeida last year. That was a hardly a unipuerto.

I'm not sure I understand the "field is alway bad comment". I think races like Catalunya and Tirreno had much deeper fields of top climbers than this Romandie. Basque country on paper as well, although several dropped out. Imo, the strength of the field gives weight to the performances. The deeper the field, the more sure one can be that the winner did a really good performance. Maybe Lipo is in top shape and that is enough.

Agree with the bolded point of course. I recall Pogacar dropping lipowitz by 1 minute 20 seconds on a Combloux (20 min climb ish). 15 seconds today does not move me that much. Of course Pogacar will improve the next month, but this week was just way below my expecation.

If Seixas or top prep vingegaard was here - I think they have Pogacar beaten.

For reference, how good was Pogacar on Capegna in 22? Took one minute out of a really good field in spring.

Tadej Pogacar | 83 (+4): 6.69 W/kg for 18:45 on Carpegna (Tirreno 2022)

This was a really strong perfomance (especially for 2022 standards), the others that day were bad. A field can have strong names when you look at it in hindsight, at the time it was perceived as a showdown between Pogacar and Evenepoel only (even though he could not climb yet at that point in time).

Lipowitz today had the same Index as in Combloux, Poagacar was much worse of course. I also don't expect his summer shape to be better than the last 2 years, but the others still need to reach at least close to that level.

Vingegaard in Tour shape would be better than Pogacar today, but we have also not seen that shape yet this year. Seixas would have been together with Pogacar.

The depth of the field was maybe a bit better in Tirreno and Catalunya, but not by much. Paret-Peintre is also here (2nd-4th from Catalunya are here).

 

[Red Rick]

No rain, but it was crazy cold that day, that's for sure. Still, it really was an elite field and big gaps between several groups. That performance stands out as much better than today's despite what the pure numbers say.

Pog in Catalunya 24', Vingegaard in Tirreno 24' and Basque 23', and Seixas this year, all impressed me more than Pogacar this Romandie.

I'm trying to summon some hope for a closer battle this summer.

I think there's no predictive value to this Romandie other than potentially that Pogacar actually gets tired after a really big set of targets and therefor yoloing a Vuelta after a TdF later on is actually not that easy

 

[Krzysztof_O]

But don't obsess over W/kg numbers, look at gaps behind. They are big despite the negative split.

And when nobody si doing great 20 minute numbers, then maybe conditions aren't as great as you'd think.

Lipo was holding on pretty well and also kept small gap behind Pog afterwards. I would say better Pogacar today ( than 3 days ago) but not his standard thermonuclear level. Unless we assume Lipo progressed so much that hes close to Pogs level now.

 

[Red Rick]

Lipo was holding on pretty well and also kept small gap behind Pog afterwards. I would say better Pogacar today ( than 3 days ago) but not his standard thermonuclear level. Unless we assume Lipo progressed so much that hes close to Pogs level now.

Lipowitz was dangling off Vingegaard/Pogacar a few times in the last TdF

 

[Pozzovivo]

So anemic leadout and quite strong attack seems to be the conclusion. The only remaining thing I'd like to know was whether Pogacar accelerated notably in the last km, or if Lipowitz had to slow down.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2050688588245831939

View: https://x.com/ammattipyoraily/status/2050688588245831939?s=20

https://twitter.com/x/status/2050685619035144421

View: https://x.com/ammattipyoraily/status/2050685619035144421?s=20

 

[vappa]

So anemic leadout and quite strong attack seems to be the conclusion. The only remaining thing I'd like to know was whether Pogacar accelerated notably in the last km, or if Lipowitz had to slow down.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2050688588245831939

View: https://x.com/ammattipyoraily/status/2050688588245831939?s=20

https://twitter.com/x/status/2050685619035144421

View: https://x.com/ammattipyoraily/status/2050685619035144421?s=20

I'd say the first, he obviously went really hard to drop Lipowitz and make a gap

 

[hayneplane]

@Peyresourde which climb on this years Giro parcours do you have your eyes on as the most likely to generate a standout performance?

 

[Ulle97]

@Peyresourde which climb on this years Giro parcours do you have your eyes on as the most likely to generate a standout performance?

I'd say Blockhaus

 

[Peyresourde]

@Peyresourde which climb on this years Giro parcours do you have your eyes on as the most likely to generate a standout performance?

The 3 best possibilities:

1) Blockhaus: good climb, but many riders don't peak yet in week 1 and Vingegaard might intentionally start the Giro a bit undercooked

2) Cari: Basically unipuerto and Vingegaard is often at his peak on stage 16. Almeida already did a good performance there in Tour the Suisse 2024, so I expect big watts.

3) Piancavallo: This climb seems to have a secret tailwind. Everytime it is used (1998, 2017, 2020), there are PBs. Jai Hindley still has not really surpassed his performance from the 2020 Giro there since.

 

[Netserk]

if pogi 2024 is the benchmark ( the giro version ) what are your expectations for the giro ?

36'30"-37'00" for piancavallo ?

 

[Peyresourde]

if pogi 2024 is the benchmark ( the giro version ) what are your expectations for the giro ?

36'30"-37'00" for piancavallo ?

Pogacar in the 2024 Giro had Indexes of 83, 95 and 86 (Oropa, Foscagno, Grappa), so an average of 88.

Obviously, I don't know what the weather conditions and tactics will be like. If there are no attacks on the first ascent of Piancavallo, then the adjustment for the final climb would probably be -5 or -6, so good conditions for a fast time.

Breaking Pantani's record (36'20) might even be possible with good pacing for Vingegaard, but unlikely.
With 60 % drafting and neutral conditions, an Index of 88 (-6) would be a time of ~37'05 (6.57 w/kg)

 

[Pozzovivo]

Is there any place to find wkg comparisons between female riders? AVDB did a good ride yesterday but probably nowehere near DV level.

Other than that:

Blasi was impressive (again).
Great to see Gaia Realini return to life.
Strange to see PFP be so bad given her astronomical ceiling.

 

[Rou]

I'm also curious about Breggen's level to see if she can compete against Volering and Prevot in the Tour.

 

[Peyresourde]

Is there any place to find wkg comparisons between female riders? AVDB did a good ride yesterday but probably nowehere near DV level.

Other than that:

Blasi was impressive (again).
Great to see Gaia Realini return to life.
Strange to see PFP be so bad given her astronomical ceiling.

Lanterne Rouge does not post anymore on their page, but if you look through some of the articles they have graphs for women's races. Other than that, I don't know any place where performances are listed systematically.

Maybe I will start to analyze climbs for women in the future, but at the moment I have enough to do with my current projects.

PFP is probably tired after the classics. I have not looked closer at the performances yesterday, but I doubt AVDB will be able to compete for the win in the Tour.

 

[Red Rick]

Pogacar in the 2024 Giro had Indexes of 83, 95 and 86 (Oropa, Foscagno, Grappa), so an average of 88.

Obviously, I don't know what the weather conditions and tactics will be like. If there are no attacks on the first ascent of Piancavallo, then the adjustment for the final climb would probably be -5 or -6, so good conditions for a fast time.

Breaking Pantani's record (36'20) might even be possible with good pacing for Vingegaard, but unlikely.
With 60 % drafting and neutral conditions, an Index of 88 (-6) would be a time of ~37'05 (6.57 w/kg)

Piancavallo was the fastest climb in 2020 despite being it not being the strongest field by a long stretch, and it was one of the faster climbs of the 2017 Giro despite everyone looking completely gassed by that point.

If conditions are decent I see no reason for the record to not get smashed other than Vingegaard being in complete cruise control. 37'00 seems like a target time for Gall and Pellizzari to me, as it's not much more than half a minute faster than Wilco Kelderman in 2020.

 

[Pozzovivo]

Pure climbers still reign supreme in womens cycling. Beautiful race.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2053175943263371564

View: https://x.com/ammattipyoraily/status/2053175943263371564?s=20

 

[yaco]

Why do we have comparisons with KOM hunters as there is no comparison. One id doing a one off ride and the other is doing Angliru with 7 days racing in their legs.

 

[Red Rick]

Why do we have comparisons with KOM hunters as there is no comparison. One id doing a one off ride and the other is doing Angliru with 7 days racing in their legs.

Have you ever checked KOMs on big climbs that have been raced by a big race? How many KOMs are by random guys doing a training ride?

This is a 50+ minute climb, not a 1 minute subsection of La Redoute

 

[Krzysztof_O]

What could be the reason that Piancavallo has such high numbers? Is it associated with some local wind conditions (not discounted in formulas)? Or is the asphalt quality (underrated aspect IMO) absolutely top notch?