Contador's Power Numbers on Mt. Etna

[Escarabajo]

I have somewhere around 364 Watts. Or 5.96 Watts/Kg

Of course several assumptions were made. The biggest being the head wind. Even if I put a 15 kph head wind those were the numbers that I got.

Other assumptions being:

Distance: 20 m
Altitude length: 1892 m - 685 m
Weight: 61 Kg + 1 kg +Bike Weight
Mechanical efficiency: 3%
Attacked at 33:54 from the 20 km mark
Finish on 50:20 aprox (33% on his own)
Power numbers calculated on a constant average gradient.
Density: on average: 1.0365 kg/m3
Time drafting: 67%
Gravity factor: 74% of total power.

I'd appreciate if other members shared their numbers especially the wind speed.

Obviously if we calculate the power numbers on only 7 km when he attacked we would have a different story but at least we have the numbers for almost a full hour which is very significative for comparison purposes.

I distribute power on time sections when riding alone and drafting so it would be very hard to obtain similar numbers when using different programs out there.

 

[Moose McKnuckles]

Interesting, but why post this in the clinic?

 

[Escarabajo]

Interesting, but why post this in the clinic?

Just in case.

Always when I post power numbers some discussion turn to doping. I just want it to be an open discussion.

The numbers are below the 6 watts/kg so we should not worry about it.

 

[Escarabajo]

Oooops. Can not edit title. Maybe moderators can fix the grammar.

"Contador's Power numbers on Mt. Etna".

 

[danjo007]

certain other riders cant light a cigarette without ending up in the clinic.. so anything AC does fully deserves to be here.

 

[Tim_sleepless]

I like the ultimate weight weeniness of his bike.

 

[greenedge]

Contador should paint his bike Maligia Rosa Madness

 

[Sophistic]

he needed ~24:00 for the last 10km(@6%), thats about 380 Watts for him if there's no wind and he uses a normal and not a 1kg ghost bike. So i would guess he averaged round 390-400 for the last 10k yesterday, pretty much his TDF 2010 level.

 

[roundabout]

It's slightly OT, as it doesn't strickly relate to Contador and the whole climb, but from the back of the envelope calculations I did for Nibali Contador would have had to put out at least 6% more power to gain 50 seconds on him (from the moment he attacked)

It's the margin of superiority that is truly baffling.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

back in the day the differences between gt contenders were ALWAYS minutes.

1 mt stage contender A would win 2 minutes on contender B, and on another mt stage later in the tour B would win 2 minutes back on A again.
Now it's usually seconds.

And suddenly people are baffled when the difference is (almost) a minute?

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Why a new Thread for this? There´s already a good other one. Anway, no shocking numbers here.
And the margin of 50 seconds is nothing compared to years pre 2008: The favourites put two minutes on each other back then, for example the 10th already 5 mins behind (in a single stage!!).

 

[roundabout]

back in the day the differences between gt contenders were ALWAYS minutes.

1 mt stage contender A would win 2 minutes on contender B, and on another mt stage later in the tour B would win 2 minutes back on A again.
Now it's usually seconds.

And suddenly people are baffled when the difference is (almost) a minute?

Did they attack from 7 to go into a headwind against a group of riders who would share the work?

Don't **** on my shoes and tell me that it's raining, please.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

No they sometimes attacked earlier. But the lead also grew by the km, which was not the case on Contador yesterday or in last years (micro-plasticzicser-re-fill-blood-)TdF.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

It's slightly OT, as it doesn't strickly relate to Contador and the whole climb, but from the back of the envelope calculations I did for Nibali Contador would have had to put out at least 6% more power to gain 50 seconds on him (from the moment he attacked)

It's the margin of superiority that is truly baffling.

I can't see that 6% is that baffling.

At 6Watts/Kilo is 0.36 watts per kilo.

Or at 350 watts, it's about 20 watts of superiority - significant, but hardly ridiculous.

Step back a minute and think - he put 50 seconds in to the pack - are you suggesting that's an enormous gap you rarely see on mountain stages?

 

[veganrob]

His numbers are certainly not extraordinary from what is possible.

 

[roundabout]

I can't see that 6% is that baffling.

At 6Watts/Kilo is 0.36 watts per kilo.

Or at 350 watts, it's about 20 watts of superiority - significant, but hardly ridiculous.

Step back a minute and think - he put 50 seconds in to the pack - are you suggesting that's an enormous gap you rarely see on mountain stages?

I'll indulge you. Gaps to 3rd in mountain stages with a mountain top finish

2007 Giro

Stage 4 0 seconds
Stage 10 27 seconds
stage 13 (MTT) 8 seconds
stage 15 43 seconds (from Di Luca to Cunego)
Stage 17 7 seconds

2007 Tour

stage 8 26 seconds (from Mayo)
stage 14 37 seconds
stage 16 35 seconds

2007 Vuelta

stage 4 0 seconds
stage 9 17 seconds
stage 10 0 seconds

2008 Giro

stage 7 3 seconds
stage 14 9 seconds (from Menchov)
stage 15 15 seconds (from Pozzovivo)
stage 16 17 seconds (MTT)
stage 19 37 seconds (from Ricco)

2008 Tour

stage 6 4 seconds
stage 10 2.05 (after Piepoli DQ)
stage 15 20 seconds (from Sastre)
stage 17 2.05

2008 Vuelta

stage 7 8 seconds
stage 8 0 seconds
stage 13 58 seconds
stage 14 4 seconds
stage 20 31 seconds (MTT)

2009 Giro

stage 4 0 seconds
stage 5 5 seconds
stage 16 29 seconds
stage 17 48 seconds
stage 19 30 seconds

2009 Tour

stage 7 21 seconds
stage 15 1.03
stage 20 3 seconds

2009 Vuelta

stage 8 44 seconds
stage 12 10 seconds
stage 13 25 seconds
stage 14 14 seconds

2010 Giro

stage 8 20 seconds (from Tondo)
stage 15 1.30 (Zoncolan!!!)
stage 16 54 seconds (MTT)
stage 20 5 seconds

2010 Tour

stage 8 10 seconds
stage 12 10 seconds
stage 14 14 seconds
stage 17 1.18

2010 Vuelta

stage 11 10 seconds
stage 14 22 seconds
stage 15 9 seconds
stage 16 34 seconds
stage 20 23 seconds

That's 50 mountain top finishes in the last 4 years including MTTs (46 without). Only on 7 of them (1 MTT) was the margin from 1st to 3rd greater than 50 seconds.

 

[thehog]

I can't see that 6% is that baffling.

At 6Watts/Kilo is 0.36 watts per kilo.

Or at 350 watts, it's about 20 watts of superiority - significant, but hardly ridiculous.

Step back a minute and think - he put 50 seconds in to the pack - are you suggesting that's an enormous gap you rarely see on mountain stages?

Andy Shleck always said Contador only gains time on his accelerations. ie when he attacks he gets 5-10 seconds but then he sits steady at the same speed as the chasing group. You'll note Contador even when alone will put further accelerations in to gain more time.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

I'll indulge you. Gaps to 3rd in mountain stages with a mountain top finish

2007 Giro

Stage 4 0 seconds
Stage 10 27 seconds
stage 13 (MTT) 8 seconds
stage 15 43 seconds (from Di Luca to Cunego)
Stage 17 7 seconds

2007 Tour

stage 8 26 seconds (from Mayo)
stage 14 37 seconds
stage 16 35 seconds

2007 Vuelta

stage 4 0 seconds
stage 9 17 seconds
stage 10 0 seconds

2008 Giro

stage 7 3 seconds
stage 14 9 seconds (from Menchov)
stage 15 15 seconds (from Pozzovivo)
stage 16 17 seconds (MTT)
stage 19 37 seconds (from Ricco)

2008 Tour

stage 6 4 seconds
stage 10 2.05 (after Piepoli DQ)
stage 15 20 seconds (from Sastre)
stage 17 2.05

2008 Vuelta

stage 7 8 seconds
stage 8 0 seconds
stage 13 58 seconds
stage 14 4 seconds
stage 20 31 seconds (MTT)

2009 Giro

stage 4 0 seconds
stage 5 5 seconds
stage 16 29 seconds
stage 17 48 seconds
stage 19 30 seconds

2009 Tour

stage 7 21 seconds
stage 15 1.03
stage 20 3 seconds

2009 Vuelta

stage 8 44 seconds
stage 12 10 seconds
stage 13 25 seconds
stage 14 14 seconds

2010 Giro

stage 8 20 seconds (from Tondo)
stage 15 1.30 (Zoncolan!!!)
stage 16 54 seconds (MTT)
stage 20 5 seconds

2010 Tour

stage 8 10 seconds
stage 12 10 seconds
stage 14 14 seconds
stage 17 1.18

2010 Vuelta

stage 11 10 seconds
stage 14 22 seconds
stage 15 9 seconds
stage 16 34 seconds
stage 20 23 seconds

That's 50 mountain top finishes in the last 4 years including MTTs (46 without). Only on 7 of them (1 MTT) was the margin from 1st to 3rd greater than 50 seconds.

and how are the numbers pre-2007. Actually i am surprised for the 2007-TdF. As far is i remember it was Rasmussen, Contador and then big gaps.
Anyway until at least 2006 Giro (starting with 1903-TdF) it was crazy gaps. After that all Favourites got disqualified and/or retired.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

I'll indulge you. Gaps to 3rd in mountain stages with a mountain top finish

2007 Giro

Stage 4 0 seconds
Stage 10 27 seconds
stage 13 (MTT) 8 seconds
stage 15 43 seconds (from Di Luca to Cunego)
Stage 17 7 seconds

2007 Tour

stage 8 26 seconds (from Mayo)
stage 14 37 seconds
stage 16 35 seconds

2007 Vuelta

stage 4 0 seconds
stage 9 17 seconds
stage 10 0 seconds

2008 Giro

stage 7 3 seconds
stage 14 9 seconds (from Menchov)
stage 15 15 seconds (from Pozzovivo)
stage 16 17 seconds (MTT)
stage 19 37 seconds (from Ricco)

2008 Tour

stage 6 4 seconds
stage 10 2.05 (after Piepoli DQ)
stage 15 20 seconds (from Sastre)
stage 17 2.05

2008 Vuelta

stage 7 8 seconds
stage 8 0 seconds
stage 13 58 seconds
stage 14 4 seconds
stage 20 31 seconds (MTT)

2009 Giro

stage 4 0 seconds
stage 5 5 seconds
stage 16 29 seconds
stage 17 48 seconds
stage 19 30 seconds

2009 Tour

stage 7 21 seconds
stage 15 1.03
stage 20 3 seconds

2009 Vuelta

stage 8 44 seconds
stage 12 10 seconds
stage 13 25 seconds
stage 14 14 seconds

2010 Giro

stage 8 20 seconds (from Tondo)
stage 15 1.30 (Zoncolan!!!)
stage 16 54 seconds (MTT)
stage 20 5 seconds

2010 Tour

stage 8 10 seconds
stage 12 10 seconds
stage 14 14 seconds
stage 17 1.18

2010 Vuelta

stage 11 10 seconds
stage 14 22 seconds
stage 15 9 seconds
stage 16 34 seconds
stage 20 23 seconds

That's 50 mountain top finishes in the last 4 years including MTTs (46 without). Only on 7 of them (1 MTT) was the margin from 1st to 3rd greater than 50 seconds.

And on an awful lot more it was the same order of magnitude - are you really claiming you're baffled by something happening beyond the 80th percentile confidence interval? Easily baffled.

A guy who put 4 minutes in to the 2nd best climber in the world 2 years ago over the course of a tour, now puts 50 seconds in to a group of 2nd tier (they're still brilliant, but we all know there's a gap from schleck down) GC riders, who were attacking each other rather than riding as a concerted group.

It's really not an astonishing result - there are far more impressive/dubious ones in Bertie's past if that's the spin you want to put on it.

 

[Tom T.]

Did they attack from 7 to go into a headwind against a group of riders who would share the work?

Don't **** on my shoes and tell me that it's raining, please.

Problem is that the group was not sharing the work. For much of it, everyone was happy to let Scarponi's helper pull the entire train. Surely not a recipe for keeping AC in check. If Nibali, Scarponi (although he might have been too gassed from his initial chase), Kreuziger, Garzelli....etc. had truly organized a chase they could have kept AC within 20-30 seconds. Instead they looked at each other, afraid to hit the front and expose themselves to an attack.

 

[roundabout]

And on an awful lot more it was the same order of magnitude - are you really claiming you're baffled by something happening beyond the 80th percentile confidence interval? Easily baffled.

A guy who put 4 minutes in to the 2nd best climber in the world 2 years ago over the course of a tour, now puts 50 seconds in to a group of 2nd tier (they're still brilliant, but we all know there's a gap from schleck down) GC riders, who were attacking each other rather than riding as a concerted group.

It's really not an astonishing result - there are far more impressive/dubious ones in Bertie's past if that's the spin you want to put on it.

Uh, the only one who is spinning here is you with your assertion that gaps of 50 seconds or more are not rare.

If you want spin, here it is.

Di Luca gained 43 seconds and had abnormal test readings in the same Giro.

Contador who is dodgy enough as it is had the Mexican Chicken with him in 2007.

Ricco was very much likely to be doping in 2008 even in the Giro.

Cobo* and Sastre put 2 minutes plus on the field going almost from the bottom of legitimate HC climbs with Cobo having Piepoli with him to share the work and Sastre not being really chased (on that climb, riders were really attacking each other, unlike your spin on what happened yesterday)

In 2008 Vuelta the biggest gap was on the Angliru and I certainly didn't see any ramps like that yesterday.

Pellizotti the rider currently banned as you may remember had the biggest margin in 2009 Giro.

We had a thread or two about Contador's Verbier ride.

2010 Andy Schleck who is considered to be a doper pulled out that gap on a HC climb going with 10 or 9 to go.

No sir, nothing peculiar about Contador getting 50 seconds yesterday. Many people who pulled out such gaps haven't tested positive later. Never.

Spin away.

Edit: btw, the official climb profile has 344 meters of elevation gain for the final 7km. 345 for the final 6. That's less than 6%.

 

[Tom T.]

You have to throw in the mix the fact the chase group rode like a bunch of whipped puppy dogs. I think they were already thinking about how to get 2nd place in the Giro.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

You've rather changed the point of attack here I'm afraid.

I've very little interest in discussing whether Bertie dopes - the point I'm making, which you can disagree or agree with on its own terms as you please, is that the margin of victory yesterday was not some jaw-dropping, flabbergasting, baffling margin. Unless we have very different understandings of these words, I would suggest the results you already posted confirmed the point I made.

On your broader point, it's instructive to discover bike races can't be won by 50 seconds without doping, ta for the tip off. I would note that anyone giving a mid-90's level of performance on etna yesterday would have won by several minutes, over and above Contador.

 

[Parrulo]

Andy Shleck always said Contador only gains time on his accelerations. ie when he attacks he gets 5-10 seconds but then he sits steady at the same speed as the chasing group. You'll note Contador even when alone will put further accelerations in to gain more time.

ya contador isn't exactly great passing himself diesel style and keep gaining time (like sastre in 2008 or basso last year) he just snaps does a few meters at an insane speed and then keeps a good enough speed not to lose anytime. he certainly looks to struggle on the bike when he is on the saddle. andy is a better diesel but he just can't drop contador.

also he only gained time on the favourites during his acceleration and when niemec was passing the group. OMG HOW CAN CONTADOR PUT A FEW SECS ON A DOMESTIQUE!!!!!!!

 

[Big Doopie]

...this is all pretty silly.

the idea that contaminated contador is not doping is ludicrous.

however, the idea that scarponi and nibali (of all people) are not, is also completely ridiculous.

comparing their performances does not make one and/or the other a doper.

they are most likely all three doped as much as they can get away with -- which is probably a lot since we know that the uci is basically not testing or will bury any positives.