Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

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Worst counties here have less first doses percentage than Bratislava has fully vaccinated.
It seems to vary quite a lot in general, yeah. I checked some numbers for Romania, as I'm travelling there next month, and it seems like they are stuck at ~25% (almost all fully vaccinated), and have now asked suppliers to send less doses, as there is no more interest


Currently they have almost no new daily cases, but I guess in autumn at the latest, this will become a major issue for some countries - and we are talking about the EU here.

By the way, CureVac now claims that it's not quite fair to compare their numbers with those of earlier studies, facing different challenges. I guess they somewhat have a point there, and AZ at least maybe wouldn't get much better numbers now, but still, it doesn't change anything about the fact that their efficiancy is not good enough.
 
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I wonder a bit about this and I am also a bit concerned that the cases in the UK are rising again, although the vaccination rate is already quite high. It's because of the delta mutation, of course, but I'd still be interested to know what the vaccine distribution is in the UK.

So what percentage of doses given in the UK are from Pfizzer/Biontech and what percentage are from Oxford/Astrazeneca. Moderna and Johnsen/Johnsen are not used that much in the UK yet, are they?

Anybody from the UK has information about that?
 
By the way, CureVac now claims that it's not quite fair to compare their numbers with those of earlier studies, facing different challenges. I guess they somewhat have a point there, and AZ at least maybe wouldn't get much better numbers now, but still, it doesn't change anything about the fact that their efficiancy is not good enough.
Agree 100%. It is definitely comparing apples to oranges. However, they really need to consider whether there is something inherently suboptimal with their formulation regarding the use of unmodified RNA nucs. The same issue with AZ and their unlocked spike. I think we have enough real world data with Pfizer and delta to suggest that its efficacy is significantly better than CureVac, even if the 95% to 47% bottom line comparison is not really relevant.
 
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The reliance of the UK on mostly one vaccine (AZ) and the long period between the first and second shots seems to start causing problems now:

Several EU countries have already made entry to British travelers more restrictive, because after the British variant, the UK is now also a source of the Indian variant.
This is what infuriates me. We can call the virus India variant or UK variant , but calling the virus as the China/Wuhan virus is racist in some corners. Its too much of pandering to China.
 
I'm worried that parts of Africa may become 'the next India'. They haven't suffered that much from the original strain, but like in India, the delta variant may cause much more problems.
The population density of Africa is 1/10 of India and also mobility via air is less. Its unlikely to spread as much. Also the people of Africa probably have a much better immune response compared to Indians. They shrug off malaria in ~ 2 days as if they have normal fever whereas a friend of mine was in hospital for 10 days
 
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This is what infuriates me. We can call the virus India variant or UK variant , but calling the virus as the China/Wuhan virus is racist in some corners. Its too much of pandering to China.
Only for those without any scientific background and want to ignore scientific naming conventions in favor of politics. WHO issued guidelines for naming new human and infectious diseases back in 2015. Thus every disease from 2015 onwards should be named in accordance with the guidelines. Why should people break protocol to stigmatize an entire group of people just for political gain. That's what the new Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta variant naming conventions are for, so it'll take some time to catch on since it took most of 2020 for media to start calling the virus by it's proper name.

https://www.who.int/news/item/08-05-2015-who-issues-best-practices-for-naming-new-human-infectious-diseases

New variant naming convention only got approved in June.

As an aside, for viruses discovered prior to the new naming conventions, how confusing would it be if every virus was named after the country of discovery. This would then be called China virus v2, since SARS was the China virus v1. But what about viruses that are from completely different families, let alone species. Let's rename West Nile virus -> Uganda virus; Marburg virus -> Uganda virus v2; Zika virus -> Uganda virus v3; and the next unrelated virus discovered there shall be named Uganda virus v4. Not confusing at all right?
 
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-The advantage to identifying the area (country, region, state...) of a variant origin is that it helps us draw conclusions based on other information about that location (ie: religious holiday, population density...).
-The disadvantages are (too) many.
-The media is doing what I predicted with the Greek alphabet system: "The Delta variant from India..."
-SARS-CoV-2 right?
 
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This is what infuriates me. We can call the virus India variant or UK variant , but calling the virus as the China/Wuhan virus is racist in some corners. Its too much of pandering to China.
Hypocrisy at its best. Excuses will be made and none will remember the American/world media using the China and Wuhan virus from the begining only to take a hard left turn. Not to worry though many in the media around the world will continue to act out in such a way. Follow it up to come in here and watch some of the same excuses and tired panic tactics when it comes to the virus.
 
Why don't the media report on this type of information? Why not post it here along with the other tweets?
I am going to take the time to read this later, but claiming up to 100% immunity in the title immediately calls into question anything that follows.

The media reports on "scientific consensus" so if this person is a single voice they won't get published by most media. EDIT: Crotty isn't a fringe voice, but he doesn't have enough enough data or peer support (consensus) to make this the main story on the evening news (yet).

With other viruses, natural immunity tends not to be as strong as vaccine immunity, and its looking like SARS-CoV-2 is the same. Plus, the risks with natural immunity are much greater than with vaccine immunity.

EDIT: If natural immunity is strong and/or long lasting that is a positive thing moving forward.

Quote from Shane Crotty: "Infectious diseases kill more people worldwide than any other single cause. That’s one of the main reasons I focus on vaccines. They really have the potential for improving lives and saving lives."

-One thing that is throwing me off is that several times he refers to what he has learned since January and then refers to a year. Obviously we aren't even to six month this year, and he can't mean January 2020 so I'm not sure what to make of that (maybe the data collection was in January, but included cases from a year ago?).

Links form Shane Crotty:
https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMoa2034545

Linked thread by Shane Crotty:
View: https://twitter.com/DiseaseEcology/status/1272271134696673281

EDIT 2: RE: "Up to 100% immunity": I guess if you observe data for 1,000 people and one doesn't get SARS-CoV-2 again, that one person is 100%, but using that math, most of the vaccine will be up to 100% as well.
 
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-The advantage to identifying the area (country, region, state...) of a variant origin is that it helps us draw conclusions based on other information about that location (ie: religious holiday, population density...).
-The disadvantages are (too) many.
-The media is doing what I predicted with the Greek alphabet system: "The Delta variant from India..."
-SARS-CoV-2 right?
Unless the pangolins/bats are border jumpers I don't see a problem with naming the country of origin especially when some of the travellers from those countries later test positive in quarantine and are shown to have that strain of the virus. It's just a sign of the times in the 21st century with all of the nit picking over political correctness and appropriate language garbage. It seems many people today are offended constantly by most things. No surprise that secretive governments would do the same and react to any labelling from outsiders. Australia's calling for an independent investigation will never be forgotten it seems. What a horrible idea that was................
 
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I am going to take the time to read this later, but claiming up to 100% immunity in the title immediately calls into question anything that follows.

The media reports on "scientific consensus" so if this person is a single voice they won't get published by most media.

With other viruses, natural immunity tends not to be as strong as vaccine immunity, and its looking like SARS-CoV-2 is the same. Plus, the risks with natural immunity are much greater than with vaccine immunity.

EDIT: If natural immunity is strong and/or long lasting that is a positive thing moving forward.

Quote from Shane Crotty: "Infectious diseases kill more people worldwide than any other single cause. That’s one of the main reasons I focus on vaccines. They really have the potential for improving lives and saving lives."

-One thing that is throwing me off is that several times he refers to what he has learned since January and then refers to a year. Obviously we aren't even to six month this year, and he can't mean January 2020 so I'm not sure what to make of that (maybe the data collection was in January, but included cases from a year ago?).

Links form Shane Crotty:
https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMoa2034545

Linked thread by Shane Crotty:
View: https://twitter.com/DiseaseEcology/status/1272271134696673281

EDIT 2: RE: "Up to 100% immunity": I guess if you observe data for 1,000 people and one doesn't get SARS-CoV-2 again, that one person is 100%, but using that math, most of the vaccine will be up to 100% as well.
I used the same twitter source as djpbaltimore, yet you had not questions on the validity of information that was posted by them. Why is that?
 
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I used the same twitter source as djpbaltimore, yet you had not questions on the validity of information that was posted by them. Why is that?
Did you read my reply?

His David Blake Tweet? It was talking about case counts right? It didn't make any 100% claims, but the Crotty Tweet that you provided did. That's why I questioned it.

EDIT: I'll post this again for you since you seem to be leaning no vax here. Crotty, the Tweet you provided, said: "Infectious diseases kill more people worldwide than any other single cause. That’s one of the main reasons I focus on vaccines. They really have the potential for improving lives and saving lives."
 
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This could be true. Cdc covid deaths from march 2020 to present 0-17 years of age is 322 18-29 years of age 2,359. Pneumonia deaths are 773 for 0-17 and 2,533 for 18-29. Flu death data is much less but the Flu numbers for 2020-2021 are skewed in my opinion due to the lack of flu cases during this time. 61 flu deaths for 0-17 and 1,042 18-29
Focusing on that with the graph provided in that tweet seems to have other motives, maybe the author wants more panic over covid?
 
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Did you read my reply?

His David Blake Tweet? It was talking about case counts right? It didn't make any 100% claims, but the Crotty Tweet that you provided did. That's why I questioned it.

EDIT: I'll post this again for you since you seem to be leaning no vax here. Crotty, the Tweet you provided, said: "Infectious diseases kill more people worldwide than any other single cause. That’s one of the main reasons I focus on vaccines. They really have the potential for improving lives and saving lives."
I took the vax Pfizer. Not leaning no vax at all. Only pointing out that there is other info out there.
 
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I used the same twitter source as djpbaltimore, yet you had not questions on the validity of information that was posted by them. Why is that?
One difference is that I posted raw data analysis, while you posted what amounts to an opinion. And IMO, vaccines have been shown to increase antibody levels in those with prior infection. However, a second dose may not have a significant effect. There is a reason that many vaccination schemes use a prime:boost strategy. Two hits are better than one. The relationship to community spread is debatable. But I hope we can agree that there has been a reversal in the trends in the states that I had warned about.
This could be true. Cdc covid deaths from march 2020 to present 0-17 years of age is 322 18-29 years of age 2,359. Pneumonia deaths are 773 for 0-17 and 2,533 for 18-29. Flu death data is much less but the Flu numbers for 2020-2021 are skewed in my opinion due to the lack of flu cases during this time. 61 flu deaths for 0-17 and 1,042 18-29
Focusing on that with the graph provided in that tweet seems to have other motives, maybe the author wants more panic over covid?
Less panic and more vaccination actually. The numbers in the chart don't include 2020-21.

My workplace is finally removing social distancing and mask mandates starting on July 1st for those who are vaxxed. Last week we no longer had to chart symptoms on a daily basis. Good progress thanks to high (>80%) vaccination on campus.

ETA. It is amazing how much ivermectin talk is out there. Of course, a lot of it is due to the scarcity of vaccines in the developing world, but the ivermectin craze is almost a beat for beat remake of the hydroxychloroquine craze, except the latter probably was more scientifically sound. Long story short, Ivermectin doesn't work.
 
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