Couple of Gila Stats

[Master50]

154 riders finished the first stage
104 riders finished the 5th and last stage
Last rider was 2 hours and 32 minutes behind

2 1/2 hours behind in 5 stages the winner was 13 1/2 hours

The Mellow team with only 3 riders took 1st 2nd and 8th in GC

Last year only 94 finished the first stage
62 riders finished the race
Winners GC at 14:05
Last place at + 2:48

Phil Moved up 1 spot in GC from last year but arguably had one of his best results since without mellow he might be the overall winner.
Points of discussion
Was the greater turnout a result of mellow racing or the dearth of races on the calendar.
was the 35 fewer minutes in the winners GC because he is a pro tour rider with the F-1 engine?
Time for the mathematicians to chime in.

2008 tour after stage 5
Leader at 19:32
174th place at 20 minutes. Just for comparison for you guys that think a pro race is just a pro race.

 

[ElChingon]

I think you're burning a fire out of buckets of water?

 

[Black Dog]

Need more data

You do know that races change from year to year based on weather conditions, race tactics, etc... How about comparing the last 10 years and see if there is a real anomaly with this years results. Your comparison is not even close to being of any statistical significance. You simply can not draw any conclusions on the basis of the comparison that you are making.

 

[Master50]

You want facts?

Guys this is not fair. We get pages and pages of expert opinions based on innuendo and discussion about rules. I toss out a couple of facts and I get the sample is too small?
I looked back over a few more years of Gila and so far this years race is the largest and the fastest. Most over 14 hours.
Field sizes vary but a few around 100, 1 at 120 too, Abandons around 30.
How about a little input from the conspiracy theorists?
I also looked at a couple of tour results and 2 hour gap times were after 10 stages. I guess that could mean that tour riders are twice as good as domestic riders.
Anyone going to take the challenge?
Maybe I only like to argue. I don't seem to be much of a sh*@ disturber.

 

[davidg]

Gila - all good

You do know that races change from year to year based on weather conditions, race tactics, etc... How about comparing the last 10 years and see if there is a real anomaly with this years results. Your comparison is not even close to being of any statistical significance. You simply can not draw any conclusions on the basis of the comparison that you are making.

F##k me, give Master50 a break. He puts together a couple of interesting facts and you shoot him down.

Maybe if he had put together some innuendo about LA or Astana you would have jumped on the bandwagon and nodded your head, statistically warranted or not, and kept the thread going for weeks until the next LA conspiracy thread started (usually about a day later),

I think his point was probably that Mellow Johnnys team, didnt make a huge distortion to the race, especially as it was in danger of not even happening a month or so back.

So this is what I get from it,
a) a race got saved
b) it got publicity which means it will probably be bigger next year
c) Riders got the chance to ride with some top pro's (something I would have snapped up)
d) extra money got put back into the race by Levi and co since they did not take prize money.

I can't see where all the negatives are.

Thanks for putting the info together Master50

 

[nmwildog]

meaningless stats

sampling pool of 2 races? any consideration for the fact that the wind was less than in any previous year? how about fact that Thu race had large and early breakaway not usually seen at this event, and a resulting long chase? Any consideration of the fact that a large number of DNF's occured on Sunday due to a crash involving over 30 riders, many of whom chose to cut the course short and ride home on the last stage when they were unable to rejoin the peloton?
these statistics are basically just numbers that really don't show us anything. I've been to 23 Tour of the Gila's and I think the pace was a little faster than in previous editions by it certainly wasn't because the 3 Johnny's were "towing" everyone around. If you believe what the riders in the field say a lot of it was due to the fact that everyone wanted to bring their "A" game when riding alongside US racing legends.

 

[Dr. Wattini]

sampling pool of 2 races? any consideration for the fact that the wind was less than in any previous year? how about fact that Thu race had large and early breakaway not usually seen at this event, and a resulting long chase? Any consideration of the fact that a large number of DNF's occured on Sunday due to a crash involving over 30 riders, many of whom chose to cut the course short and ride home on the last stage when they were unable to rejoin the peloton?
these statistics are basically just numbers that really don't show us anything. I've been to 23 Tour of the Gila's and I think the pace was a little faster than in previous editions by it certainly wasn't because the 3 Johnny's were "towing" everyone around. If you believe what the riders in the field say a lot of it was due to the fact that everyone wanted to bring their "A" game when riding alongside US racing legends.

nmwildog,
it seems you were at Gila, living it and breathing it. Give us some idea of what the US pros thought about the Johnnys' participation? I hear the BMC riders were ****ed that some of their members got excluded.
As far as I can tell, the race coverage given to Gila would have been the same with or without Johnnys racing. Do you think their participation aided the local business (the ToC organizers always brag about the money the TOC brings to the local communities)
We can play around with the numbers and address the race statistically, but numbers need to be placed in context, otherwise they are irrelevant
But I agree with Master50, lets give this thread a shot without the innuendo, can we guys?

 

[Snake8]

Innuendo is precisely the point. How could you possibly draw any conclusions from the 'facts' Master50 posted? Of course the race is going to be faster, there was better competition.


"Torture numbers and they'll confess to anything" -Greg Easterbrook

 

[Dr. Wattini]

Innuendo is precisely the point. How could you possibly draw any conclusions from the 'facts' Master50 posted? Of course the race is going to be faster, there was better competition.


"Torture numbers and they'll confess to anything" -Greg Easterbrook

Dude,
Better competition. let me ask you a question, how do you deduct there was better competition? Was it due to the 3 johnnys?

I like the number torturing quote.

 

[Mike Schatzman]

No, it wasn't just the three pro-tour riders, who are used to racing at a much higher speed, particularly uphill (there is no comparison between domestic racing and pro-tour level racing, ask anyone who has tried to make the transition. You need the racing - and other things that go along with being a pro-tour rider - to get that speed. You could motorpace for 6 hours a day maybe, but even that is only a simulation).
It was Lance, Horner (who used to absolutely dominate NRC racing a few years ago) and Levi + the entire Trek/Livestrong team. That makes a 12 rider team including Phinney, who is a recent world champion at the pursuit.

If you are a domestic pro and you are so good that you dominate you end up in Europe, like Lance and the rest. Some pros might go to europe, wash out and come back, but the best don't belong at your tuesday night crit or at Gila - unless Gila becomes a Tour of California UCI level race, which I don't think is out of the question, because it's an awesome race. But this isn't the properly classified event for pro-tour riders, simple as that.

It might be great for the race and Silver City or whatever, but Lance was sandbagging, just like a cat. 1 in a cat. 5 field. It was lame. It was slumming for them, just a joke, retro jerseys, complimenting domestic teams for being "pretty professional" and all that.
The domestic pros at gila won't complain because the need a contract next year, and making an enemy of Lance Amrstrong is not good for a cyclists career (I can make a list, from Andy Bishop to Marty Jemison to his good friend, unemployed Frankie Andreu) but I can assure you that racing for third place isn't fun for those teams.

 

[nmwildog]

Lance Factor?

nmwildog,
it seems you were at Gila, living it and breathing it. Give us some idea of what the US pros thought about the Johnnys' participation? I hear the BMC riders were ****ed that some of their members got excluded.
As far as I can tell, the race coverage given to Gila would have been the same with or without Johnnys racing. Do you think their participation aided the local business (the ToC organizers always brag about the money the TOC brings to the local communities)
We can play around with the numbers and address the race statistically, but numbers need to be placed in context, otherwise they are irrelevant
But I agree with Master50, lets give this thread a shot without the innuendo, can we guys?

Doc,
In answer to your questions, Yes BMC was very ****ed about having to send 5 guys home, but not so much at Lance as at UCI. I mean they were "bending" the same rule coming to Gila but wouldn't have attracted the attention Lance did. As to what the other pro's thought, everyone I talked to was happy to have him here, there's a few whingers in every crowd who just have to blame Lance for everything from Acne to Zits. As for race coverage, we normally have two correspondents, 1 each from Velo News and CN, and 2 accredited photogs from same 2. This year we had reporters from Tucson, El Paso, Albuquerque, Las Cruces, New York Times (3 reporters), 2 Dutch Cycling publications, two film crews, AP, UPI and more others than I could keep track of. Tour of the Gila was on local news in over 90 countries. NM Tourism department estimated advertising impact alone, of this years Tour of Gila at $760,000.00 as compared to about $60K last year. Race attendance was up about 35%,
Spectator attendance up about 400%. Most downtown businesses recorded record profit days, even more importantly in the last week cycling in the area has taken a huge jump there are people on their bikes everywhere. Sure with most it won't last, but I remember when I was the only licensed racer within 100 miles, now there are at least 40 here in town. Even if Lance only ads a couple of kids to that number it's a success.