Critérium du Dauphiné 2012 stage 4, 53.5km, Villié-Morgon-Bourg-en-Bresse, ITT

[Bavarianrider]

Critérium du Dauphiné 2012 stage 4, 53.5km, Villié-Morgon-Bourg-en-Bresse, ITT

(As this is clearly the most interestings stage i thought that this one can be opened early)

So it is a long, 50km+ point A to B timetrial. Something we don't get to see that often in cycling, these days.
The route is pretty much flat and strait and is heading in an East to West direction.
This should be a TT for the big rolleur type of ryders, who can pull the big gears and crank out the high wattage numbers. Climbers on the other hand will be suffering.
The weather situation will be a crucial factor in this time trial.
At the moment the forecast predicts a mix between sun and rain for Thursday afternoon in Bourge en Bresse. Temperatues will be moderate at around 18°C. A moderate breeze is said to blow in a South-North directions with wind speeds of 10-20km/h an hour. This would mean moderate crosswinds for the riders. In any case, we'll have to keep an eye on how the weather forecast develops.

Favorites:

- Bradley Wiggins: He seems to be in great shape and is an elite TTler of course. It will be very interesting to see, how much time he can gain on the rest of the GC riders. After all, the last TT of the Tour looks very similar to this one.

- Tony Martin: The best TTler in the world should love this stage. It is a TT pacours which looks more or less tailor - made for Martin. Besides Wiggins, nobody should be able to keep up with Tony.

Minor Favorites:

Cadel Evans, Dennis Menchov, Richie Porte, Durbridge Luke, Michael Rogers, Simon Gerrans, Andryi Grivko, David Millar, Lieuwe Westra, Bert Grabsch, Carlos Barredo, Tejay van Garderen, Janez Braikovic, Alexandre Vinokurov, Andrej Kasheshkin, Christopher Froome

As you can see there are many good time trialers in this peleton. So this will be an interesting TT, for sure.

Furthermore, there is a huge junk of GC contenders who will try to lose as little time as possible in this TT, as for example:

Andy Schleck, Jürgen van den Bröck, Vincenzo Nibali, Juan Jose Cobo Acebo, Thomas Vöckler, David Moncoutie, Samuel Sanchez, Christophe Le Mevel, David Arroyo,

A great day of cycling is looming ahead! So get yourself ready, fasten your seat belts and enjoy this one.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

This is satisfactorily long enough to ensure that the rest of the race is a snoozefest, and will be the only truly GC-relevant day, thanks to the joke of a parcours.

My hypothesis is that the ASO needed the Tour parcours to look balanced, so produced an even more TT-biased Dauphiné course so people didn't moan so much about the crap Tour route.

How come TT mileage in major races is getting shorter and shorter, and yet more and more races are turning into "win the TT win the race" events? It's like people are actively going out there seeking out bad routes.

 

[cineteq]

This is satisfactorily long enough to ensure that the rest of the race is a snoozefest, and will be the only truly GC-relevant day, thanks to the joke of a parcours.

Is it really necessary to repeat yourself post after post?

 

[spalco]

My hypothesis is that the ASO needed the Tour parcours to look balanced, so produced an even more TT-biased Dauphiné course so people didn't moan so much about the crap Tour route.

I don't know. Wouldn't that theory presume anyone even gives a **** about the Dauphine?

 

[theyoungest]

- Bradley Wiggins: He seems to be in great shape and is an elite TTler of course. It will be very interesting to see, how much time he can gain on the rest of the GC riders. After all, the last TT of the Tour looks very similar to this one.

Why? It's meaningless with respect to the Tour. We know Wiggins can TT, but can he do it after three weeks of hard racing?

My hypothesis is that the ASO needed the Tour parcours to look balanced, so produced an even more TT-biased Dauphiné course so people didn't moan so much about the crap Tour route.

I think it's pretty obvious that they want the favourites to use this as their prep race of choice. TT with equal length to the Tour's (last year even the exact same course), the Grand Colombier makes an appearance. I don't think ASO care that you don't like their course, everyone will watch the Tour anyway.

 

[Fetisoff]

1.Martin
2.Wigans
3. VINO

 

[Eshnar]

I wonder why they do such bad looking profiles.

 

[Tony Martin brute hero]

Obviously Martin should win this, Evans and Wiggins are great TT'ers but Martin is on another level if he is good, but the question is how good is Tony M.? I have this feeling we might see a surprise in the time trial (sky will be in the front with 4 man at least I think) Porte, Rogers, Wiggo, Sivtsov, EBH, Froome and even Pate should be able to do a top 20 finish

 

[Fetisoff]

I wonder why they do such bad looking profiles.

True. First of all, doesn't show altitude at the start. Also no idea what any of those "speedbumps" actually are in terms of percentages or anything

 

[Fowsto Cope-E]

I wonder why they do such bad looking profiles.

Yeah, it looks like the riders have a couple of walls to climb over, doesn't it?

 

[Ferminal]

I wonder why they do such bad looking profiles.

You mean there isn't actually 100% gradients?

For anyone that cares there are no places which can be considered "climbing" apart from that very first block.

 

[McLovin]

First of all, doesn't show altitude at the start.

286m. It's right there.

A little bit offtopic, but still regards altitude and Dauphine region. Why Tour always put Madeleine with 2000m when everywhere else it's 1993m. Anybody?

 

[Fetisoff]

286m. It's right there.

Oh yeah... I guess I gotta get some glasses. Either way the altitude difference b/w 286 and 266 seems much more on that profile than between 266 and the finish - 225.

As for the race - well, we knew it was gonna be another win TT - win the race sort of deal, so a much more interesting subplot will be how Evans/Sanchez/Menchov perform, because they should be gaining some form before the Tour now, so if they suck - it's a bad sign

 

[Mellow Velo]

Really looking forward to Thursday afternoon.....................I'm sleeping badly and need a siesta. This cannot fail to do the trick.

Whoever can be bothered, wins.

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

Vino will bounce back on this tt. I know it!

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

You mean there isn't actually 100% gradients?

I was looking forward to the wall climb also.

 

[hfer07]

I wonder why they do such bad looking profiles.

looks bumpy to me-don't know how "accurate" those sharp inclines are, but the parcours does not look entirely flat to me- so TMartin won't have it easy to win it. Evans & Wiggo will have the upper hand for sure-but I'm so intrigued by MENCHOV-he needs to show some indication of how his form is coming along-then is the test for Nibali too. interesting stage indeed

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

looks bumpy to me-don't know how "accurate" those sharp inclines are, but the parcours does not look entirely flat to me- so TMartin won't have it easy to win it. Evans & Wiggo will have the upper hand for sure-but I'm so intrigued by MENCHOV-he needs to show some indication of how his form is coming along-then is the test for Nibali too. interesting stage indeed

Well if we are to believe the profile, at about 2km inside the tt the riders will rise 50m within 1m. Should be a most interesting section that (and not the only one of its kind), I think I understand Bavarians excitement now.

Chapeau aso!

 

[Bavarianrider]

Don't get confused by this weird profile.
This is practically flat. Certainly not what wyou would call a hilly TT.
So this should be a pacours for the "pure" TTlers

 

[dlwssonic]

I won't be surprised at all if evans loses quite a lot of time to wiggins. evans is still building up his form. And evans is way better when the TT are in the later stages of the race. a top 10 maybe.
Tony and wiggins top 2.

 

[Gloin22]

I won't be surprised at all if evans loses quite a lot of time to wiggins. evans is still building up his form. And evans is way better when the TT are in the later stages of the race. a top 10 maybe.
Tony and wiggins top 2.

So is Wiggins with his form ( building up )

I agree though. I love how you play your expectations down, and if Evans does well then go bonkers as you started with low expectations. Nice tactic

Just kidding

 

[dlwssonic]

So is Wiggins with his form ( building up )

I agree though. I love how you play your expectations down, and if Evans does well then go bonkers as you started with low expectations. Nice tactic

Just kidding

well in stage 1, I really didn't expect anything from him. I did not even talk about
his chances before the stage. He surprised me with that attack and the win so of course I had to go bonkers

I won't be playing down his chances at the tour. Now he is obviously not at the best form.

But I really don't expect much from him in a long TT with the form he is in now, especially when it is so early in a race.

Wiggins is a better TT rider and does better when its earlier in the race.
Evans does better when its later in a race.

 

[JA.Tri]

Wiggins and Tony to fight it out.

Cadel 55sec
Denis 75sec
Nibali 100sec

 

[Winterfold]

Don't get confused by this weird profile.
This is practically flat. Certainly not what wyou would call a hilly TT.
So this should be a pacours for the "pure" TTlers

If Der Panzerwagen had a position and pedalling like wiggins there would be no beating him. As it is it nice that he rides a bit ugly so others have a chance

 

[Bavarianrider]

So you wanna say that Wiggins position is better then martins

Yeah right