Critérium du Dauphiné 2022, June 5 - 12

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And Pogs best 2020 performance isn't up to the level of Piancavallo 2020. Watts/kg in isolation aren't that great of a metric. I think LR very deliberately overstates the importance of that metric to get attention.

I don't think Pog is invincible, but it's not because he's this overrated climber who wasn't that impressive in 2021.

Like adding Beixalis data to his power curve for 2021 is just hilarious.
We still probably don't know until the 2022 Tour (if we find out, i guess subject crashes, covid), just how dominant Pogacar is from a GT perspective. Stage 8 of 2021 is still perplexing, as in, could he really be that dominant? And if he was (and his rivals weren't just really bad into Le Grand Bornand), then why not take another minute somewhere on a MTF? If not to raise clinic suspicion, then why not just gain 2 minutes rather than 4-5 on stage 8?

Because Roglic crashed last year, it's hard to get the greatest guide from that Tour. The general (and fairly sensible) assumption is that Pogacar was definitely slightly better than Roglic in 2020, and when looking at their ages, it's natural to think that Pogacar has greater scope for improvement in the two years since, but cycling results are not always linear, smoothly aligning to expectations (one could have expected Quintana to take over from Froome, for example). What if 2021 Vuelta Roglic was the best GT Roglic yet, and what if he's still improving (many think he hasn't looked that impressive this season, but perhaps there was a deliberate attempt to slower build form, plus there was the knee injury......Primoz could even be about to dominate this TDF if he still won P-N and Dauphne despite those factors) as a GT rider?

Pogacar hasn't yet reached Armstrong dominance, nor even put together a GT like Contador's consistently dominant 2011 Giro, so I feel like hope for a great battle between the two Slovenians isn't just wishful thinking.
 
And Pogs best 2020 performance isn't up to the level of Piancavallo 2020. Watts/kg in isolation aren't that great of a metric. I think LR very deliberately overstates the importance of that metric to get attention.

I don't think Pog is invincible, but it's not because he's this overrated climber who wasn't that impressive in 2021.

Like adding Beixalis data to his power curve for 2021 is just hilarious.
Right, but let’s add it to other data:
  1. In GTs they have both finished, they are 1-1, with the Tour getting more weight because it’s the Tour and Pogi was so young at the Vuelta
  2. In weeklong stage races, Roglic is 1-0 (2021 Ilutzia), having dropped out of 2020 Dauphine on the last stage after a crash while in the leader’s Jersey.
  3. Roglic’s prep in 2020 was subpar due to that crash. On the flipside, Pogi was (?) 21.
  4. Pogacar has had several displays of dominance that far exceed Roglic’s in terms of gap to rivals.
  5. However, Pogi has, as far as I know, never dropped Roglic on a major climb in a stage race.
  6. Roglic has dropped Pogi on a major climb in a stage race.
  7. They are 3-3 head-to-head in ITTs, though you can throw out one because Pogi was pre-peak in 2018 Tour of Slovenia and another because Roglic had just crashed in 2021 Tour.
  8. Pogi’s peak ITT performance came during stage 20 of a tour whereas Roglic’s arguable peak was fresh during the Olympic ITT, which he won.
  9. Pogi’s best climbing performances in terms of numbers came during the 2020 Tour when he was struggling to keep up with Roglic, and, in fact, Roglic’s numbers are consistently better than Pogi’s 2021 Tour performance.
  10. Pogi hardly had to break a sweat to win the 2021 Tour and likely could have at least matched his 2020 performance had he needed to.
Make of it what you will, but reading through that, it doesn’t read to me like Pogacar is unbeatable; it reads to me like there should be a battle. Pogacar is amazing and still the favorite, but it is not by the margin many make it out to be IMO.
 
Right, but let’s add it to other data:
  1. In GTs they have both finished, they are 1-1, with the Tour getting more weight because it’s the Tour and Pogi was so young at the Vuelta
  2. In weeklong stage races, Roglic is 1-0 (2021 Ilutzia), having dropped out of 2020 Dauphine on the last stage after a crash while in the leader’s Jersey.
  3. Roglic’s prep in 2020 was subpar due to that crash. On the flipside, Pogi was (?) 21.
  4. Pogacar has had several displays of dominance that far exceed Roglic’s in terms of gap to rivals.
  5. However, Pogi has, as far as I know, never dropped Roglic on a major climb in a stage race.
  6. Roglic has dropped Pogi on a major climb in a stage race.
  7. They are 3-3 head-to-head in ITTs, though you can throw out one because Pogi was pre-peak in 2018 Tour of Slovenia and another because Roglic had just crashed in 2021 Tour.
  8. Pogi’s peak ITT performance came during stage 20 of a tour whereas Roglic’s arguable peak was fresh during the Olympic ITT, which he won.
  9. Pogi’s best climbing performances in terms of numbers came during the 2020 Tour when he was struggling to keep up with Roglic, and, in fact, Roglic’s numbers are consistently better than Pogi’s 2021 Tour performance.
  10. Pogi hardly had to break a sweat to win the 2021 Tour and likely could have at least matched his 2020 performance had he needed to.
Make of it what you will, but reading through that, it doesn’t read to me like Pogacar is unbeatable; it reads to me like there should be a battle. Pogacar is amazing and still the favorite, but it is not by the margin many make it out to be IMO.
I don't really buy into H2H that much, but for me the argument "against" Pogacar is that his most dominating performances have all been in very specific circumstances and or early in the season. And I believe many overreact to his prowess in races like Strade Bianche and De Ronde van Vlaanderen in the context of the Tour de France.
 
Right, but let’s add it to other data:
  1. In GTs they have both finished, they are 1-1, with the Tour getting more weight because it’s the Tour and Pogi was so young at the Vuelta
  2. In weeklong stage races, Roglic is 1-0 (2021 Ilutzia), having dropped out of 2020 Dauphine on the last stage after a crash while in the leader’s Jersey.
  3. Roglic’s prep in 2020 was subpar due to that crash. On the flipside, Pogi was (?) 21.
  4. Pogacar has had several displays of dominance that far exceed Roglic’s in terms of gap to rivals.
  5. However, Pogi has, as far as I know, never dropped Roglic on a major climb in a stage race.
  6. Roglic has dropped Pogi on a major climb in a stage race.
  7. They are 3-3 head-to-head in ITTs, though you can throw out one because Pogi was pre-peak in 2018 Tour of Slovenia and another because Roglic had just crashed in 2021 Tour.
  8. Pogi’s peak ITT performance came during stage 20 of a tour whereas Roglic’s arguable peak was fresh during the Olympic ITT, which he won.
  9. Pogi’s best climbing performances in terms of numbers came during the 2020 Tour when he was struggling to keep up with Roglic, and, in fact, Roglic’s numbers are consistently better than Pogi’s 2021 Tour performance.
  10. Pogi hardly had to break a sweat to win the 2021 Tour and likely could have at least matched his 2020 performance had he needed to.
Make of it what you will, but reading through that, it doesn’t read to me like Pogacar is unbeatable; it reads to me like there should be a battle. Pogacar is amazing and still the favorite, but it is not by the margin many make it out to be IMO.
nice analysis.

unfortunately, i do not expect it to be close.

hoping pog has tech issues on the cobbles and has to do an exploit to recover time.

exploits are what memories and the history of cycling depend on.
 
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No one is unbeatable. Not even Pogacar. Illness, falls, a bee sting, knee pain etc.
All of this can even reduce or make an absolute winner without a chance. But if Pogacar is in top form and free from setbacks, Roglic doesn't stand a chance. Which is not to say that Roglic will not sometimes end up ahead of Pogacar in a mountain stage, or even win a mountain stage.
 

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