I don't expect him to win. But I mean, I think he has a better chance for top 3 than Carapaz, Dani Martinez, Jorgenssen, O'Connor.
Cycling odds usually seem pretty random to me. If I actually bet I would do so in cycling - if you have some kind of knowledge it seems you can actually win something over time, while in football for instance the bets always seem quite reasonable.
This table is definitely not how I would rate the contenders all around.
Regarding Mas: I always forget he's there, too, so that might happen to other people as well...
Mas was good in one-week races in 2022, he just crashed and lost time on the final stage every time (maybe you could say that's a part of being good in a one-week race that he is lacking).Well I think from a bookies perspective it makes sense, probably part of it is just based on some algorithms and Mas has never really been good in one week races until this year, and even this year he hasn’t podiumed a race.
On the other hand you have Yates who wins one-week races regularly, Martinez who has won the Dauphine before, Carapaz who has a history of being good in the last races in the run up to a GT (won suisse two years back).
So even though Mas probably comes with less uncertainty than a guy like Martinez I can understand how the bookies came up with this list.
I think you've described the wrong Yates brother there, although Simon is sometimes capable of consistency in GTs. Adam can be very consistent over 3 weeks but outside of the UAE Tour he generally lacks the top end of others and has to ride conservatively. He just doesn't seem to have that extra gear that Kuss and his brother can reach on their day.Vingegaard will probably win the race because of the tt but will also want to be dropping Adam Yates, (who has shown the highest top level amongst the contenders this year) in the mountains as convincingly as possible here for a psychological boost before The Tour against UAE. Yates doesn't have the consistency for 3 weeks but I've always said could be used in the Kuss role to great effect and I think is second favourite here.
Having said that, apart from Steven (who is a year older now), their mountains team really isn't that good and those profiles look quite good for a mugging. Maybe Carapaz, Mas, Martinez or someone who isn't too bothered about minor places can get up the road at some point.
I have to wait till 6:15am PST for coverage to begin, it's a treat to get to sleep in. (The Giro usually had me up at 4am, but even then I was a couple of hours late.)The Giro coverage spoiled me. I can't believe I have to wait this late to start watching the Dauphine.