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Critérium du Dauphiné 2024, June 2 - 9

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Remco Evenepoel wil wins this bike race.

I'd agree normally based on the 35km ITT alone (where he should put serious time into everyone) but this Dauphiné is particularly stacked with big name GC contenders & more importantly on paper it looks really hard. Add the fact he's coming back from injury so he could have some 'consistency' problems.

With regards Rogla I simply hope to see a return to his 2023 form on the climbs (irrespective of whether it's enough to win the Dauphiné or not). That's literally criteria number one in order to keep the July dream alive.
 
With regards Rogla I simply hope to see a return to his 2023 form on the climbs (irrespective of whether it's enough to win the Dauphiné or not). That's literally criteria number one in order to keep the July dream alive.
Him and Evenepoel need to be able to ride away from everyone else if they want to be seen as serious contenders for the TDF. How much do you think Roglic can improve after the Dauphine until the TDF starts?
 
Him and Evenepoel need to be able to ride away from everyone else if they want to be seen as serious contenders for the TDF. How much do you think Roglic can improve after the Dauphine until the TDF starts?

Rog doesn't need to ride away from anyone. He just needs to ride smart & be capable of following the best on any day. The Tour is the goal, not the Dauphiné. I think the only way he'll drop the rest is by following wheels anyway, i.e. whether it's Evenepoel's wheel or someone else's. I'd be very surprised if he's adventurous next week (it's not really his style).

But, if he gets dropped by the likes of Jorgenson etc. like in Paris-Nice then yeah, there's real cause for concern.
 
Rog doesn't need to ride away from anyone. He just needs to ride smart & be capable of following the best on any day. The Tour is the goal, not the Dauphiné. I think the only way he'll drop the rest is by following wheels anyway, i.e. whether it's Evenepoel's wheel or someone else's. I'd be very surprised if he's adventurous next week (it's not really his style).

But, if he gets dropped by the likes of Jorgenson etc. like in Paris-Nice then yeah, there's real cause for concern.
Just following the best will be hard to be enough to win the Tour or Dauphine, since will be difficult for him to be the strongest of the four in the Time Trials.
 
Just following the best will be hard to be enough to win the Tour or Dauphine, since will be difficult for him to be the strongest of the four in the Time Trials.

I disagree.

I think following Pog (or Vinge if he's on form), maybe winning a couple of MTF sprints & "surviving" until the final ITT could be the smartest tactic, like a repeat of last year's Giro with a watts bomb in the final ITT.

The profile of that time trial definitely suits Rog, no question in my mind.
 
I disagree.

I think following Pog (or Vinge if he's on form), maybe winning a couple of MTF sprints & "surviving" until the final ITT could be the smartest tactic, like a repeat of last year's Giro with a watts bomb in the final ITT.

The profile of that time trial definitely suits Rog, no question in my mind.
I understand your point, but there's also a big chance that Pogacar or Vingegaard drop also a watt bomb in the last TT, it would be a risk.
 
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Rog doesn't need to ride away from anyone. He just needs to ride smart & be capable of following the best on any day. The Tour is the goal, not the Dauphiné. I think the only way he'll drop the rest is by following wheels anyway, i.e. whether it's Evenepoel's wheel or someone else's. I'd be very surprised if he's adventurous next week (it's not really his style).

But, if he gets dropped by the likes of Jorgenson etc. like in Paris-Nice then yeah, there's real cause for concern.
That's true, let me rephrase it as Roglic needs to finish with the best uphill every stage, otherwise there's an issue for the TDF. Most riders don't improve that much anymore after already a long stint at altitude and 3 weeks before TDF.
 
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When it comes to stage 4. It's not a pancake flat ITT and at times can be a bit technical, so likely a battle of prestige to be involved and not for the overall. Due to new equipment it will be interesting to see on how Rogla does, at this intermediate checkpoint on the road to the Tour.

Most of the other stages are in my opinion pointing in the right direction. Bora should hence in my opinion take a grip of this race, considering something like that will be expected at the Tour. Visma likely not up to the task and SOQ likely not at UAE level. Bora hence can't be positioning itself as a third team in the peloton any more, it's time to aim higher.
 
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Not sure that Remco is the favourite in that TT, if the hills have some hidden steep sections or several bends I really believe that Roglic can defeat him.
This might help your analysis when it comes to the amount of bends. Not sure about hidden steep sections.

0f4d0
 
Yeah, it's all or nothing. Either the winner is nowhere in the Tour, or he wins the Tour.

2023 - Vingegaard wins both
2022 - Roglic crashes out of the Tour
2021 - Porte doesn't ride GC in the Tour
2020 - Martínez doesn't ride GC in the Tour
2019 - Fuglsang crashes out of the Tour
2018 - G wins both
2017 - Fuglsang crashes out of the Tour
2016 - Froome wins both
2015 - Froome wins both
2014 - Talansky doesn't ride GC in the Tour
2013 - Froome wins both
2012 - Wiggins wins both
2011 - Wiggins crashes out of the Tour
2010 - Brajkovic doesn't ride GC in the Tour
2009 - Valverde doesn't ride the Tour
2008 - Valverde starts strongly in the Tour but finishes in 8th - the last time a rider finishes in placings 2-10 of the Tour after winning Dauphiné. What a stat.
So it’s a buzz-killer for the Most Top 10s w/o Win competition . . .