Doping Evidence via Placings?

[DirtyWorks]

What would the placings look like for a rider who is not doped throughout a season versus others strategically (or otherwise) doping?

Rider 1: non-existent in the peloton 99% of the year, then absolutely destroys the field at one or two events practically shattering the field on their own on their way to a top-3.

Rider 2: frequently at the front, yet consistently unable to ride people off their wheel. I would argue they are on a different program than #1 to the point of not doping these days.


Am I anywhere near reality with those descriptions?

Does anyone have more cues like this I can use to temper race results?

Here's another example from Tilford's blog: http://stevetilford.com/2010/05/30/snake-alley-giro-photos/
"So, when some guy, .... that I’ve never heard of, comes and spanks everyone at a regional race that pays $2,000 to win, I have to call foul."

 

[ttrider]

1 is schleck 2 is basso

i m thinking 1 is dirty you need to buil form shorely his spikes in performance take the ****, nowhere then wins lbl i wonder when that transfusion took place

rider 2 basso the way he rides, builds form etc appears very natural to me, he must be a mega natural talent to win the giro by 10 clean or not so to me hes ok

shleck got dropped at tirreno adriatico by the gruppetto! wtf

 

[Willy_Voet]

Two answers for you:

1. When you are a fan of Rider 1 and Rider 2 beats him, Rider 2 must be doping.

2. When Rider 1 wins a race multiple times, beating Riders 2, 3, 4 and 5, then Riders 2, 3, 4, and 5 are all caught up in doping scandals within a few years, then there is no way Rider 1 is not doping.

 

[Fester]

This nonsense. You can't tell a "doper" by their places, just like the lantern rouge might be charged up to the eyeballs, or the top guys may be riding clean. It is completely possible to win races totally clean. Even in the doping era of the late 90's early 00's.

Also bear in mind the waters between science, nutrition and "doping" at an elite level get extremely muddied.

I don't think doping is the key differentiating factor in winning races, just as the less "doped" or even dope free have won races.

Cycling success is not synonymous with drugs.

 

[Rip:30]

Since you don't know the undoped variance in performance (for either any one athlete or any population of athletes) you cannot test for doping via an increase or decrease in variance of performance as is often suggested. I've been thinking about this for a long time and I don't think you can use parametric or non-parametric methods to determining cheating with any degree of confidence. Athletic performance is highly multifactorial, and not consistent through time in any way.

Personally, as a clean athlete, I've seen huge swings in performance some years, but also years of consistency (esp. as I've gotten older). One pattern I've seen in myself and also others is the ability to have a super season were form is high pretty much all year, often followed by a mediocre year where form is consistently lower but sometimes punctuated by exceptional days.

 

[auscyclefan94]

1 is schleck 2 is basso

i m thinking 1 is dirty you need to buil form shorely his spikes in performance take the ****, nowhere then wins lbl i wonder when that transfusion took place

rider 2 basso the way he rides, builds form etc appears very natural to me, he must be a mega natural talent to win the giro by 10 clean or not so to me hes ok

shleck got dropped at tirreno adriatico by the gruppetto! wtf

basso number two? Basso had no form what so ever going into the giro and then he blitzes it so he would more likely be n.o 1 with schleck. Rider 1 is more likely to be doping than n.o 2.

 

[MacRoadie]

Rider 1 is more likely to be doping than n.o 2.

The way I've always looked at it, it's best simply to look out for No. 1 and avoid stepping in No.2...

 

[wattage]

shleck got dropped at tirreno adriatico by the gruppetto! wtf

This is very interesting, we've seen Andy being dropped by grupetto and just in may in TOC he was dropped by group pulled by Hincapie Riis ofcourse said he ordered Andy back to peloton..but I'm not buying that excuse. He should get those hard racing miles in his legs right now, it's not like its january, cmon. And just less than 2 months after TOC we will see Andy dropping everyone else but Contador on the TDF climbs.

That will be some serious peak in performance. Whos buying it?

 

[Inner Peace]

basso number two? Basso had no form what so ever going into the giro and then he blitzes it so he would more likely be n.o 1 with schleck. Rider 1 is more likely to be doping than n.o 2.

I'd hardly say he "blitzed" it.. more likely the other contenders peaked their form too early (Evans - plus he was sick, Vino) or were underprepared (Sastre, Nibali)

Basso rode a very consistent race, whilst the others faltered.

I've asked this a number of times: but how is 5.6 w/kg on the Zoncolan considered dirty?

And Evans beat all but one in the Kronplatz TT two days later... If Evans is the yardstick of clean cycling and beat Basso on a power-to-weight TT, why is Basso dirty, ACF?