Just won the Vuelta a Antioquia a few days ago. Youngest winner there in some time iirc.I really don't know who that guy is to be any more or any less excited. Maybe we will know in 5 years time!!
3 to 5 years sounds about right, realistic expectations.
Carthy too. Where is he these days?Biggest disappointment of the season must be Higuita.
Two years ago he was battling it out with the likes of Roglic, Woods and Mollema in Emilia. Now he's invisible.
He has seldom looked like the same rider post-lockdown. Still young though.
Only if you ignore the context.A GT podium finish raises expectations, realistically.
Carthy’s 2021 was a dip from 2020, but yes, it looks like it wasn’t as big a dip.Only if you ignore the context.
Carthy's season was more or less what you should expect from him. He rode his 2nd best season ever this year with his 2nd best ever GT performance. He's had the best spring of his career and if you make him crash out of the 2020 Vuelta, this season would've ended up being his best ever by a margin.
He is a rider that has eternally struggled with recovery- no surprise his best GT ever was the shortened Vuelta. Also there are two more caveats. First, the history of Vuelta is full of one hit wonders. It's late in the season and it's not a season goal for any top rider. It's a bit of a lottery who has enough legs left from the season to be competitive there. Secondly, it was the pandemic season which has complicated things even further. Just like I totally expected Geoghegan Hart and Hindley to not look as impressive this year as they looked in last year's Giro, I also didn't expect Carthy to become a regular GT podium finisher from now on. He didn't have any results or performances prior to the Vuelta that would suggest he's just stepped up as a rider big time and that's his actual new level. It looked much more like one of those circumstancial results that's not likely to be repeated any time soon.
His season had been very solid initially but then he ran out of steam by late season, which is not a surprise given his past recovery struggles.
I don't really see Mollema as a limited rider in the same sense as Carthy. He was decently good at pretty much everything- long climbs, short climbs, explosiveness, small group finishes (as for a climber), classics, TT etc. He even once gained time in the crosswinds during TdF. He's also finished his first ever GT on 12th place in GC, so if you ever had the impression that he experienced any recovery struggles, they were nowhere near as severe as Carthy's who didn't even get a top20 on a single stage for his first 3 GTs.He could end up achieving some great results, while being limited as a rider. Sort of like a Bauke Mollema, who has had a good career while not being a world beater.
I didnt say they were the same . I think you misunderstood.I don't really see Mollema as a limited rider in the same sense as Carthy. He was decently good at pretty much everything- long climbs, short climbs, explosiveness, small group finishes (as for a climber), classics, TT etc. He even once gained time in the crosswinds during TdF. He's also finished his first ever GT on 12th place in GC, so if you ever had the impression that he experienced any recovery struggles, they were nowhere near as severe as Carthy's who didn't even get a top20 on a single stage for his first 3 GTs.
Carthy's expected performance in his target races is definetely more like 6-10 places than top5 (and he did it this year with Catalunya and the Giro). As I mentioned earlier, he's only finished in the top5 overall of a WT race once in his career. He does seem to have that "extra" factor that he could match the best climbers on a day every now and then but he still has a long way to go to match the consistency of someone like Mollema. I see him as someone who could do something great at some point in the future but I totally wouldn't be surprised to never see him again in the top3 overall of a WT race and I won't raise my expectations until I see him delivering more consistently
If you forced me to bet all of my money after the Vuelta last year and I only had two choices:
I would have leant towards the latter option. And I say that as someone who would have loved to see him on the podium of every GT he rides.
- Carthy will finish on a GT podium in the future again
- Carthy will never finish on a GT podium in the future again
Conversely, there are some great riders who just are not winners. I always pointed to Bardet, who could (and sometimes still can) climb with the very best and hang tough in hard classics, something like 9 victories in 10 years as a pro.I didnt say they were the same . I think you misunderstood.
Just that it is possible to not have a winning weapon so to speak, be the best or most spectacular type of rider to achieve great results.
We will see what the future holds for him.
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