Effects of coronavirus on professional races

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Where are the facts? Million cases? When? This year? In the next 10 years? How do you know? At the moment there are 107.000 official cases and 60.000 are recovered. In China active cases are going down rapidly. In Europe the cases will be going up, but there will be a peak and then it will start decreasing.
Of course the situation is bad, but telling everyone that things will be cancelled 100% and that the virus will not stop is just wrong. Look at China. It's not going on forever.
the Chinese put whole effected regions on lockdown and mobilised resources from across their whole country. Very few other countries can or will do that. Whatever happens in say the US or Europe isn’t going to follow the Chinese pattern.
 
Swedish TV has some neat graphichs of the development the last 7 days per country:



Germany ("Tyskland"), for instance, has had 720 new cases the last 7 days of a total of 799 affected. The red graphs shows the total cases, and only China, and to a lesser degree Japan has managed to flatten the curve. The development is almost exponential in all other countries shown here. The image I've posted here was updated today 13:15 CET. I'm in line with Zinoviev Letter in post #501 and seriously doubt that the European countries will be able to impose the same extreme measures as China.
Source: https://www.svt.se/datajournalistik/har-sprider-sig-coronaviruset/
 
Germany ("Tyskland"), for instance, has had 720 new cases the last 7 days of a total of 799 affected. The red graphs shows the total cases, and only China, and to a lesser degree Japan has managed to flatten the curve. The development is almost exponential in all other countries shown here. The image I've posted here was updated today 13:15 CET. I'm in line with Zinoviev Letter in post #501 and seriously doubt that the European countries will be able to impose the same extreme measures as China.
The dynamics of transmission indicate that cases usually do increase exponentially. If cases increase by an average of 10% per day, the total number doubles in about a week, and by one thousand in about ten weeks. For 15%, the numbers are 5 days and 7 weeks; for 20%, 4 days and six weeks; for 25%, three days and a month; for 40%, two days and three weeks. In Hubei, China, the daily increase was about 40% at its peak. It seems to be around 10-15% for countries outside of China where the virus is spreading rapidly now. Of course, the rate may be decreased by stringent enough social interventions.

To the bolded, yes, that's the problem. It isn't just the Chinese government's power to lockdown any place, any time. They use cameras and cell phone access to locate infected individuals and the people they came into contact with, to guide decisions about who to test.
 
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Today (in areas with races in the coming weeks):

*558 new cases in Spain (almost doubled up compared to yesterday) and 13 deaths.
*286 new cases in France and 11 deaths.
*56 new cases and a desth in the netherlands.
*39 new cases in Belgium.
 
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Today (in areas with races in the coming weeks):

*558 new cases in Spain (almost doubled up compared to yesterday) and 13 deaths.
*286 new cases in France and 11 deaths.
*56 new cases and a desth in the netherlands.
*39 new cases in Belgium.

Zero chance of Catalunya going ahead, and probably Itzulia. One of them could become a Vuelta warm-up race this year I suppose?
 
I'm very curious how things are going to proceed now that the rubicon has been crossed and things have started to be cancelled. Like, when do things get started again? If the shutdown is to ostensibly slow the spread and contain, then yeah, by that logic it would be wildly irresponsible to start having large gatherings again while the vast majority of the population has been successfully shielded from the virus. But at the same time, I could see a realistic scenario after a few weeks once people have caught their breath, the unknown factor has died down a bit, and everyone realizes how much it sucks that nothing is happening and the global economy is staggering, that things cautiously start up again. If I had to guess I'd say there's a better than 50% chance the Giro happens on schedule, but possibly with attempted restrictions like the ones they're trying at Paris-Nice right now (which will seem like mild restrictions after what's being put in place in Italy right now for the next month) or some stages in highly infected areas avoided/moved. Or maybe 45% chance it - and most of the cycling season - just gets bumped back and the season goes through October. 5% chance it gets cancelled outright... I just have a hard time seeing a scenario where it doesn't happen eventually.

At least Italy has a clear path and task ahead. Things are moving quickly and uncertainly elsewhere - infections in France are past the numbers they were when Italy started cancelling things, so I dunno if Paris-Nice makes it until Sunday. The classics? Phew, that's a real question. It's a funny conundrum that people are going to be encouraged to stay home but the events that they would watch and talk about at home are also being cancelled... I think ideally there'd be sports to watch at home with no crowds live, but I guess that is somewhat logistically challenging. But also important for morale and a sense of normalcy, so that would be the most sensible way forward in my mind.
 
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I suspect sports in confined spaces are simpler to continue without fans (aka: baseball in Japan). The NBA sent out a memo for teams to put plans in place to play games without fans or media (although I suspect they still need camera men. Events like cycling are harder. I don't think the entire season gets cancelled. I do think there is a good chance that as the weather warms up the virus slows down. Could more races be cancelled or moved, definitely and more stages like UAE could easily be cancelled. I'm still not convinced that Paris-Nice races all the stages.
 
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May 31, 2018
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Patrick Lefevres suspects that other teams have coronavirus and that's why they are staying out of races. He's not 100% sure, but it's the rumour that's going around in the peloton.
 
Let's speculate a little. The Giro is canceled. So all the riders who would have contested that--I mean genuine GC contenders-- are likely to go to the Tour. That would make the Tour more inclusive than ever before, I would think. But let's speculate further, and assume the Tour is also canceled. Assume further that the epidemic is finally under enough control by August to hold the Vuelta. You would have one of the most comprehensive fields for a GT ever, with many teams, I would think, fielding three or four riders, each of whom would be a strong favorite to win in a normal Vuelta. Think of the tactics that would come into play under those conditions.
 
Let's speculate a little. The Giro is canceled. So all the riders who would have contested that--I mean genuine GC contenders-- are likely to go to the Tour. That would make the Tour more inclusive than ever before, I would think. But let's speculate further, and assume the Tour is also canceled. Assume further that the epidemic is finally under enough control by August to hold the Vuelta. You would have one of the most comprehensive fields for a GT ever, with many teams, I would think, fielding three or four riders, each of whom would be a strong favorite to win in a normal Vuelta. Think of the tactics that would come into play under those conditions.
Imagine that field

On that Vuelta route.
 
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