Elite male WC road race

[The Hegelian]

Finding this one pretty hard to pick - was expecting a bit more speculation in these parts.

Who's gonna take it?

The Spanish, Aussies and Belgians look most likely.

But I reckon Cancellera. Mainly because he has been targeting it + his sprint seems to have improved in the last year or so.

 

[thrawn]

Valverde to race like a coward and podium the sprint.

 

[Akuryo]

Well, it depends a lot on how the race is ridden. Best chances either way should've Sagan.

 

[42x16ss]

Sagan will want a race that is fairly aggressive to shake the likes of Degenkolb, Swift and Matthews but not so fast that the likes of Gerrans and Valverde can get too far up the road. A tricky balance if you ask me.

 

[sir fly]

Sagan will want a race that is fairly aggressive to shake the likes of Degenkolb, Swift and Matthews but not so fast that the likes of Gerrans and Valverde can get too far up the road. A tricky balance if you ask me.

Makes sense, but I don't think it's feasible.
The race will be decided between the puncheurs.

 

[Pentacycle]

Makes sense, but I don't think it's feasible.
The race will be decided between the puncheurs.

TBH I doubt the route is harder than the one in Geelong 2010, so a sprint wouldn't surprise me. Of course we'll see the puncheurs, but in the end the bunch is most likely together again. Only bad weather can cause havoc, normally the climbs are not steep enough to make a difference.

 

[TheGreenMonkey]

TBH I doubt the route is harder than the one in Geelong 2010, so a sprint wouldn't surprise me. Of course we'll see the puncheurs, but in the end the bunch is most likely together again. Only bad weather can cause havoc, normally the climbs are not steep enough to make a difference.

Gilbert (or someone like him) would have won in Geelong if the finish was as close to the climb as it is in this years race.

 

[sir fly]

TBH I doubt the route is harder than the one in Geelong 2010, so a sprint wouldn't surprise me. Of course we'll see the puncheurs, but in the end the bunch is most likely together again. Only bad weather can cause havoc, normally the climbs are not steep enough to make a difference.

There are several steep pitches where the puncheurs can easily drop the rouleurs if the cumulative ascent doesn't do the trick.

Edit:
Nevertheless, it would make a spectacular race if the puncheurs fail to shake off the rouleurs.

 

[Roude Leiw]

Edit:
Nevertheless, it would make a spectacular race if the puncheurs fail to shake off the rouleurs.

you mean it will make for a spectacular last 10 k at best

Gerrans to take this if the other teams don't put the fear of god into the aussies.

 

[sir fly]

you mean it will make for a spectacular last 10 k at best

Gerrans to take this if the other teams don't put the fear of god into the aussies.

I mean only a heavy tactical battle could produce a mix of the puncheurs and rouleurs at the finish. And that's the type of racing I adore.

 

[Roude Leiw]

I mean only a heavy tactical battle could produce a mix of the puncheurs and rouleurs at the finish. And that's the type of racing I adore.

Fair enough. I fear though that if there is not a lot of pressure quite early on the aussies (sagan does not really have a team to keep things together) and perhaps the germans / france, we will see a bus reptetita of Montreal, some attacks, but the aussies / gerro bring them back and he wins a sprint of a groupe of 30-40 people. Pity to podium again

 

[sir fly]

Fair enough. I fear though that if there is not a lot of pressure quite early on the aussies (sagan does not really have a team to keep things together) and perhaps the germans / france, we will see a bus reptetita of Montreal, some attacks, but the aussies / gerro bring them back and he wins a sprint of a groupe of 30-40 people. Pity to podium again

I think the Spaniards and Italians are really eager to make the result here after the years of miscarriage, so the pressure should be certain.

 

[Maaaaaaaarten]

I don't know who will win this, but I'm rooting for Betancur if it's a hard race and for Bouhanni if the sprinters will decide the winner. Betancur or Bouhanni in the rainbow jersey for a year would be hilarious.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Gerrans is definitely the favorite here. The route is taylor made for him and he has proven himself to be in great shape.

I think Sagan is a little overlooked here. Sure he's second to fourth favorite at all bookmakers but, as the case is with Gerrans, this route is taylor made for Sagan. His biggest opponents will be 1) Gerrans, 2) himself in that order.

 

[barmaher]

Yeah, and not only that, but the Australian team has one of the best teams for controlling a race. Matthews, Haussler and Gerrans can win if it is not very selective. Evans if it is very selective. And lads like Clarke, Dennis, Hansen, Sutherland and Hayman are ideal to keep the race tight.

Does anybody know if Matthews is just going to bend over and allow Gerrans to be the leader? If I were Bling, I would see this as a great chance to win a WCRR.

 

[sir fly]

Gerrans is definitely the favorite here. The route is taylor made for him and he has proven himself to be in great shape.

I think Sagan is a little overlooked here. Sure he's second to fourth favorite at all bookmakers but, as the case is with Gerrans, this route is taylor made for Sagan. His biggest opponents will be 1) Gerrans, 2) himself in that order.

I agree on the both points.
Sagan is again in the position from where he shows the most - overlooked. When he's marked and has to make the race - he underachieves.
His team is a chronic worry and I'm not sure Degenkolb and Matthews can't make where he can.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

The so called hard race brigade will most likely wait until the penultimate lap before making any kind of move. It will be too little, too late, Gerro FTW.

 

[greenedge]

I don't know who will win this, but I'm rooting for Betancur if it's a hard race and for Bouhanni if the sprinters will decide the winner. Betancur or Bouhanni in the rainbow jersey for a year would be hilarious.

Betancur winning it from a sprint from an easy race is more likely

 

[greenedge]

Yeah, and not only that, but the Australian team has one of the best teams for controlling a race. Matthews, Haussler and Gerrans can win if it is not very selective. Evans if it is very selective. And lads like Clarke, Dennis, Hansen, Sutherland and Hayman are ideal to keep the race tight.

Does anybody know if Matthews is just going to bend over and allow Gerrans to be the leader? If I were Bling, I would see this as a great chance to win a WCRR.

All he can do is try hang on, if it's a group with him in it, McGee has stated Matthews will be the rider they lead out.

 

[42x16ss]

Yeah, and not only that, but the Australian team has one of the best teams for controlling a race. Matthews, Haussler and Gerrans can win if it is not very selective. Evans if it is very selective. And lads like Clarke, Dennis, Hansen, Sutherland and Hayman are ideal to keep the race tight.

Does anybody know if Matthews is just going to bend over and allow Gerrans to be the leader? If I were Bling, I would see this as a great chance to win a WCRR.

If Matthews somehow survives to the end, look out but I strongly doubt that will happen. Gerrans should have no issue staying with the Italians and Spanish with the likes of Dennis, Hansen, Clarke and Evans there to help out. Even if Gerrans does get dropped Clarke should still be able to produce a decent ride if last year is any indication. The Australian and Belgian teams for this are so strong and balanced it's ridiculous, I can actually see someone like Martin or EBH stealing this from the break due to everybody cancelling each other out.

 

[The Hegelian]

Interesting thoughts. I wonder about the form of Sagan, Degonkolb and Matthews - who probably look ideal for the parcours.

Sagan has been quiet (or worse) post TDF/team change announcement.

Degonkolb looked great at the Vuelta, but picked up a leg infection.

Matthews looked good there as well.....but I'm not super convinced his young legs have as much to give in a really hard, long race.

I reckon it will be more select than some anticipate. Late attack of 2 or 3 from a small'ish elite group. If I had any sense of who, I wouldn't have started the thread.

 

[grizzlee]

I have a sneaky suspision Dan Martin is gonna be a big player in the outcome of this race. One thing is for sure he will attack on the last climb, wether it sticks or not is anyones guess. But i think it will really split the field and the main players will remain. He had LBL in the bag only for his fall on the last corner. Valverde and Gerrans couldnt live with him when he did go.
He also has Nico Roche and Phillip deignan to help him out.

 

[The Hegelian]

I have a sneaky suspision Dan Martin is gonna be a big player in the outcome of this race. One thing is for sure he will attack on the last climb, wether it sticks or not is anyones guess. But i think it will really split the field and the main players will remain. He had LBL in the bag only for his fall on the last corner. Valverde and Gerrans couldnt live with him when he did go.
He also has Nico Roche and Phillip deignan to help him out.

Not sure it was in the bag for him this year. I think he was on the path for a noble tenth - the sprinters were queuing up behind him. But I agree he could be dangerous. Be great to see him in the stripes.

By the way - GVA anyone? Has form, a strong team, flying under the radar just a little.....

I'd love to see him in the rainbow - would make up for all those hearty cracks that don't quite come off.

 

[greenedge]

Matthews looked good there as well.....but I'm not super convinced his young legs have as much to give in a really hard, long race.

He has only raced 3 GT's but he has been a pro for 4 years, Rabobank/ Belkin just didn't ride him in a GT- but the good thing is they had his long term future considered.

 

[JimPanzen]

Judging from the Vuelta, I would have put Dege as a top prospect. But after his infection, I doubt he'll have the form