DirtyWorks said:
The courses at the UCI level is *very* different than the one he raced. The loops are shorter, the climbs not as big and with the exception of a few hold outs like Mt. St. Anne, not as technical.
In particular, the next Olympic course descending is so non-technical that he should have few weaknesses going head-to-head with the off-road specialists. It's easy to imagine some other roadies giving it a try.
If Evans rides, a top-10 is very likely. That puts some extra pressure on my dark horse Nys though.
I take it you haven't been to many world cup courses lately.
Yes Mt. Saint Anne is technical but not the most technical, that would be Champery. Dalby, South Africa, and Czech are also quite challenging. The others aren't as technical but they still are respectible. XC racing has become a lot more technical over the past couple of years.
As for the Olympic course, you shouldn't make opinions based on pictures. I have done a dozen laps of the course and I can assure you it is quite technical. The rock gardens on it are as challenging as those at Mt. Saint Anne or South Africa. The gap jump is comparible in size to the Champery one and the switchback climbs are as techincally descisive as any climb on the circuit. Yes, it doesn't have roots (actually it does have a few) but it is still quite technical.
All that being said I don't think technical skills would be Evan's biggest limiter. To win a grand Tour requires endurance more than anything. Someone specializing in Grand Tours is going to have a rough time with the pace of a world class MTB field. Just look at Jean Christophe Peraud, Olympic silver metalist on the dirt in 2008, just out of the top 10 in the Tour this year, couldn't crack the top 40 at a world cup MTB race this spring.