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I don't believe Roglic could have followed Pogacar on the Peyresourde. That was a crazy performance.

I do think they were evenly matched in the high mountains, with Pog being better in the Pyrenees and Rog being better in the Alps. Plateau de Glieres was Rogs only missed opportunity.

I don't really doubt Roglic is more explosive when sufficiently fresh, but when he kicks early like he does vs everyone else to get a decent time gap Pog can beat him to the line. In a flat sprint I don't think the difference is that big. Overall I rate Pog a bit higher.
 
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If their relative performance remains as it was last year, Roglic should prevail. I'm sure he would have prevailed last year already had he known beforehand he needs 2 minutes for TT. Roglic missed quite a few opportunities to put time into Pogacar while Pogacar missed none. It was until Grand Colombier that Roglic did not consider Pogacar a real threat (as it was evident in the TJV documentary where Roglic was explaining Pogacar what's the best approach to tackling Colombier). This year it will be just the opposite - Roglic considers Pogacar his one and only threat now. So I think with the help of his stronger team, Roglic should have Pogacar covered. I'm more concerned about what he might miss while fixating on Pogacar (Yes Carapaz, I'm looking at you).
As another poster said, Roglic's main gain over Pogacar was the stage on crosswinds. As for the Peyresourde Pogacar attacked more than once (they didn't let him go initially) and it's doubtful anyone would have sustained a VAM of 1850 m/h (as evident on PDBF stage as well). TBH I can't see where Roglic could have gained more time on Pogacar in the mountains last year: he gained 15 sec on Loze and that's the only place where he was clearly stronger. This year, however, two flat TTs may play into Roglic's favour a bit.
 
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That's true but you have to look at the big picture... Would Roglic have let Pogacar go on the Peyresourde had he not lost time in the echelons? Ok maybe he couldn't follow - it's a possibility - but still, I don't remember Pogacar ever dropping Roglic when Roglic was racing against him. There were quite a few opposite occasions.
In the Jumbo documentary it is clear that they could not follow Tadej on Peyresourde. They did not want him to take time back but thought it would not matter in the end
 
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A few? There was one case on Col de la Loze.
Well, there's I think two stages in Dauphine 2020, you have Vuelta 2019 where Roglič dropped Pogačar at least 3 times. I don't know if Basque Country 2021 counts. They didn't race much together, but what I mentioned definitely should count as "a few"...

I don't believe Roglic could have followed Pogacar on the Peyresourde. That was a crazy performance.
The fact that Pogacar's performance was crazy can't be an argument why Roglic couldn't follow. Initially, he surely let Pogacar go because he wrongly assumed Bernal is his main rival and din't want to burn himself out trying to follow Pogacar while Bernal would suck his wheels... That being said - I'm not sure he could follow either. I'm just not as sure as everybody else here that he couldn't...

TBH I can't see where Roglic could have gained more time on Pogacar in the mountains last year
I had a feeling (strong argument i know) Roglic could drop Pogacar on stage 13 and gain some time (not enough for ITT though) and probably on stage 18 as well..
 
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Well, there's I think two stages in Dauphine 2020, you have Vuelta 2019 where Roglič dropped Pogačar at least 3 times. I don't know if Basque Country 2021 counts. They didn't race much together, but what I mentioned definitely should count as "a few"...


The fact that Pogacar's performance was crazy can't be an argument why Roglic couldn't follow. Initially, he surely let Pogacar go because he wrongly assumed Bernal is his main rival and din't want to burn himself out trying to follow Pogacar while Bernal would suck his wheels... That being said - I'm not sure he could follow either. I'm just not as sure as everybody else here that he couldn't...


I had a feeling (strong argument i know) Roglic could drop Pogacar on stage 13 and gain some time (not enough for ITT though) and probably on stage 18 as well..
Main reason for Peyresourde is that if he was that much better, why didn't he drop Bernal in the first place on the Peyresourde.
 
Main reason for Peyresourde is that if he was that much better, why didn't he drop Bernal in the first place on the Peyresourde.
Because his approach to racing in last years TDF was completely wrong. He was defending all the time instead of putting time in his opponent every opportunity he gets. I hope he learned his lesson (Vuelta 2021 indicates he probably did)….
 
Because his approach to racing in last years TDF was completely wrong. He was defending all the time instead of putting time in his opponent every opportunity he gets. I hope he learned his lesson (Vuelta 2021 indicates he probably did)….
I think the reason for that is that he wasn't able to drop everyone at will. That simple. Didn't drop Pogacar on Marie Blanque or Puy Mary, got beaten by him on GC, etc
 
I think the reason for that is that he wasn't able to drop everyone at will. That simple. Didn't drop Pogacar on Marie Blanque or Puy Mary, got beaten by him on GC, etc
Sure - could be that as well. However, on Puy Mary he didn’t Even try to change the tempo, his riding was very consistent. If he was trying to shake off Pogacar, I would expect some accelerations, changes of tempo, etc. That’s why I remain firmly convinced he didn’t do everything he could to shake Pogi off that day…
 
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The problem was the team idea that no one beats him in the TT. They were sure that if he comes within a minute of yellow to the last TT he would win. The team clearly ordered him to "just follow wheels". The only stage where Primož went all out was the Loze stage and maybe the last km of Pas du Peyrol. The rest of the time he always rode within himself because the team was afraid he will blow up in the third week if he goes to deep before. He was clearly annoyed on the bus saying that he is not used to riding like that (doing nothing, just following wheels) after the Peyresourde stage. And everyone kept telling him he has to ride like that. In the Vuelta he learned his lesson. He attacked whenever he felt strong. And in the and that was what won him the race.
 
The fact that Pogacar's performance was crazy can't be an argument why Roglic couldn't follow. Initially, he surely let Pogacar go because he wrongly assumed Bernal is his main rival and din't want to burn himself out trying to follow Pogacar while Bernal would suck his wheels... That being said - I'm not sure he could follow either. I'm just not as sure as everybody else here that he couldn't...
Roglic had a gap on Bernal at one point with Pogacar and Quintana. It took 3 minutes for Bernal to make it back. Roglic had the least amount of time on the front out of the 3 in that 3 minutes even though he had a gap on the assumed main rival.

Roglic marked Pogacar's initial attack and another acceleration 80 seconds later when Bernal was still trying to close the gap.

So to recap, he tried to follow Pogacar once without caring if Bernal was there or not. Then he tried to follow Pogacar knowing that Bernal was gapped. Both times he did not try to work on the front.

The third time Pogacar attacked, Roglic did not follow even though the tactical situation was close to being what it was <5 minutes before that when Pogacar first attacked and Roglic successfully marked him.
 
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The problem was the team idea that no one beats him in the TT. They were sure that if he comes within a minute of yellow to the last TT he would win. The team clearly ordered him to "just follow wheels". The only stage where Primož went all out was the Loze stage and maybe the last km of Pas du Peyrol. The rest of the time he always rode within himself because the team was afraid he will blow up in the third week if he goes to deep before. He was clearly annoyed on the bus saying that he is not used to riding like that (doing nothing, just following wheels) after the Peyresourde stage. And everyone kept telling him he has to ride like that. In the Vuelta he learned his lesson. He attacked whenever he felt strong. And in the and that was what won him the race.
Also him fading in the last week of 2019's Giro may have taken into account.
 
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This is great approach, Primož will win this year's Tour. He is just going to the race like Lance did back in the days. Racing until April, and then just train and rest. No injuries and pressure and other *. Just you, your legs and preparation. Primož will be punching everyone. Who cares about that * race, Dauphine. Eh
I think Roglic does the right thing with trying something unconventional and acting upon his 3rd week weakness pro-actively. If it increases the likelihood of a win and maybe makes a podium more uncertain, he for sure happily will take that effect.

But your Armstrong point - I think he never not raced the Dauphine (in his comeback it was the TdS as far as I remember).
 
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Yes, please, ignore that he was ill.
I don't. Romandie was stupid anyway. And I think it's a very poor argument that "Roglic is bad in 3rd weeks".

The only solid trend is that Roglic' ITT is worse in the third week, which is probably fair, but then the PDBF profile itself and a bit of mentally cracking probably makes it seem worse than it is.
 
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Yes, 2019 Giro was a complete ****up in terms getting him to peak when it matters. Sure he was ill later but not on Lake Serru stage. And yes, had Nibali been able to detect that early enough, he could have won that Giro. But it only became apparent on the Lake Como stage and by that time, Carapaz was gone...

I don't. Romandie was stupid anyway. And I think it's a very poor argument that "Roglic is bad in 3rd weeks".

The only solid trend is that Roglic' ITT is worse in the third week, which is probably fair, but then the PDBF profile itself and a bit of mentally cracking probably makes it seem worse than it is.
I agree. Apart from 2019 Giro there is no evidence of him being bad in week 3. TDF 2018 he was better in Pyrnees which were week 3 than Alps (week 2). Vuelta 2019, he was also better in week 3 than week 1 when he got dropped by Lopez. TDF 2020 he was very much in control week 3.
 
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Yes, 2019 Giro was a complete ****up in terms getting him to peak when it matters. Sure he was ill later but not on Lake Serru stage. And yes, had Nibali been able to detect that early enough, he could have won that Giro. But it only became apparent on the Lake Como stage and by that time, Carapaz was gone...


I agree. Apart from 2019 Giro there is no evidence of him being bad in week 3. TDF 2018 he was better in Pyrnees which were week 3 than Alps (week 2). Vuelta 2019, he was also better in week 3 than week 1 when he got dropped by Lopez. TDF 2020 he was very much in control week 3.
Actually, given the force that Roglic would later become in uphill sprint, Roglic getting dead last in that little uphill sprint after that big crash, losing 6 seconds to Carapaz was extremely poor of him. As was getting last in the sprint for 3rd in Courmayeur, especially as Nibali too the bonus seconds there.
 
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We can see now how Jumbo Visma is actually a weak team if Roglič is not racing. +VWA not racing, not achieving anything at all. Kruisjw., Kuss, all underperforming. Hopefully Dumoulin will be back at his best, maybe. But Roglič not racing, means zero results to the Jumbo Visma. The biggest asset of a Jumbo Visma team of all time
 
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