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Still IMHO rating Roglič as 5th is a bit disrespectful. But OK.
Most of the podcasts I've watched/listened to & articles/opinions I've read online say Roglic will lose.

It's funny, because I'm in agreement with Johan Bruyneel, George Hincapie & Lance Armstrong from their Move podcast who went for the "rare" (& IMO obvious) choice, i.e. Roglic is actually favorite.

It just makes too much sense. Those individual TT's suit him perfectly, i.e. flat, yet for specialists. The climbs also suit him, as do the descents. He has the team, the mentality & I'm 100% convinced he has the form. The only things that bothers me is the predication of bad weather next weekend & that permanent feeling of impending horrible bad luck I get when watching Roglic.

If I was a neutral observer I'd say Roglic is number one favorite (yes, even ahead of Pogacar), but as I've become a fan over the past few years, I'm watching from a more tentative "I hope this goes okay, fingers crossed" position.
 
Some have already mention it and I agree. I expect to see the best version of Roglič in a GT ever. Sure, in all his GC attempts so far there were some dips in form/bad moments towards the end of the race. But peope quickly forget there were always some "objective excuses" that happened before or during the race, which led to such events.

This year there's no excuses so far (fingers crossed). No crashes, no injuries, no being in peak shape too soon, no too much racing before the Tour, no not enough TT training, no weak team, no Padun.

Will it be enough? I don't know. But I have a feeling we'll see a strong, strong Roglič and we'll have ourselves a fabulous Tour.
 
Most of the podcasts I've watched/listened to & articles/opinions I've read online say Roglic will lose.

It's funny, because I'm in agreement with Johan Bruyneel, George Hincapie & Lance Armstrong from their Move podcast who went for the "rare" (& IMO obvious) choice, i.e. Roglic is actually favorite.

It just makes too much sense. Those individual TT's suit him perfectly, i.e. flat, yet for specialists. The climbs also suit him, as do the descents. He has the team, the mentality & I'm 100% convinced he has the form. The only things that bothers me is the predication of bad weather next weekend & that permanent feeling of impending horrible bad luck I get when watching Roglic.

If I was a neutral observer I'd say Roglic is number one favorite (yes, even ahead of Pogacar), but as I've become a fan over the past few years, I'm watching from a more tentative "I hope this goes okay, fingers crossed" position.
The weather forecast has around 40% chance of rain - but long time prognosis is not usually very accurate. Unless there is like a cold weather front coming through the area (which I guess it is not, since the percentage of rain would be near 100% then) it usually means sunny through most of the day with a chance of some afternoon storms. As far as I can remember the only Tour in the last 10 years where we got a prolonged period of bad weather was 2014 - the rest of the time there is one or perhaps two days with some rain.

But even without the rain first stages will be pretty stressful. Van Aert being in decent shape will be very handy at keeping Primož to the fore of the race. It does pose a question though, if they both reach the final climb together - who will sprint. The finish suits both of them - last year I would say Wout would be better suited to stage 1 and Roglič to stage 2 - but with WvA not being in top form just yet and Roglič destroying simmilar finishes in the Vuelta last year and Paris - Nice this year it presents the team with two legit options for the opening stage.
 
Tony will get them through the rainy days.

P.S. As for van Aert vs. Roglič. If it would come down to it, one or the other. In that case i feel that they will go for Roglič and van Aert to be more focused on TT stages. When it comes to stage hunting.
 
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I think Wout will do his own race on stage 1. He'll probably try to take the yellow jersey early in the race. I don't think Roglič will be as sharp on stage 1. As much as we hear how he comes in top form straight from altitude training, I've noticed, in the very first stage after a long training camp, he can struggle a bit sometimes. I don't expect him to challenge for victory in the 1st stage. I might be wrong of course. In the 2nd stage things should be different, though. He should try and go for the win.
 
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Most of the podcasts I've watched/listened to & articles/opinions I've read online say Roglic will lose.

It's funny, because I'm in agreement with Johan Bruyneel, George Hincapie & Lance Armstrong from their Move podcast who went for the "rare" (& IMO obvious) choice, i.e. Roglic is actually favorite.

It just makes too much sense. Those individual TT's suit him perfectly, i.e. flat, yet for specialists. The climbs also suit him, as do the descents. He has the team, the mentality & I'm 100% convinced he has the form. The only things that bothers me is the predication of bad weather next weekend & that permanent feeling of impending horrible bad luck I get when watching Roglic.

If I was a neutral observer I'd say Roglic is number one favorite (yes, even ahead of Pogacar), but as I've become a fan over the past few years, I'm watching from a more tentative "I hope this goes okay, fingers crossed" position.
While I'd hesitate to agree much with the podcast crowd IMO the pressure is really on Tadej. Ineos will be aggressive and much of the weight will be off JV leaving Roglic and Kuss to do their thing. TT's favor Primoz' skills as much as other favorites so we'll see.
 
It just makes too much sense. Those individual TT's suit him perfectly, i.e. flat, yet for specialists. The climbs also suit him, as do the descents. He has the team, the mentality & I'm 100% convinced he has the form. The only things that bothers me is the predication of bad weather next weekend & that permanent feeling of impending horrible bad luck I get when watching Roglic.
I feel the same way about his luck , but honestly it's somewhat justified...
 
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I feel the same way about his luck , but honestly it's somewhat justified...
It's also because he's on a roll of 3 consecutive cr*p outcomes in ASO stage races (i.e. Dauphiné 2020, Tour 2020 & Paris-Nice 2021). It'll be the prevailing media narrative for example if he's in yellow, i.e. "Roglic will crack sooner or later" (or words to that effect).

In my opinion all his antecedent "bad" history in France over the past 12 months will make him even stronger. Because that's how Primoz Roglic rides (i.e. each defeat makes him stronger).
 
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It's also because he's on a roll of 3 consecutive cr*p outcomes in ASO stage races (i.e. Dauphiné 2020, Tour 2020 & Paris-Nice 2021). It'll be the prevailing media narrative for example if he's in yellow, i.e. "Roglic will crack sooner or later" (or words to that effect).

In my opinion all his antecedent "bad" history in France over the past 12 months will make him even stronger. Because that's how Primoz Roglic rides (i.e. each defeat makes him stronger).
“Roglic will crack/fade” is the prevailing (British) media narrative since Giro 2019 and I don’t think it has anything to do with ASO or France. Or reality, for that matter. It’s just what media does and you can’t expect British media to be impartial here. Of course they’ll try to find a way to hype their riders’ chances and “Roglic will fade” is still more believable than “Thomas will drop him while Roglic is in peak form”.
 
On this years edition i would say TT stages are likely where Roglič can get an advantage. As for climbing here i feel that the strength of his team will be very important. To deny Ineos, Pogačar and others to put Roglič under too much constant pressure.

As for bonus seconds. This i don't know yet who will be the strongest collector of them. From the GC candidates. Could end up Roglič being the one. Pogačar likely being close.
 
It's also because he's on a roll of 3 consecutive cr*p outcomes in ASO stage races (i.e. Dauphiné 2020, Tour 2020 & Paris-Nice 2021). It'll be the prevailing media narrative for example if he's in yellow, i.e. "Roglic will crack sooner or later" (or words to that effect).

In my opinion all his antecedent "bad" history in France over the past 12 months will make him even stronger. Because that's how Primoz Roglic rides (i.e. each defeat makes him stronger).
I hope so, I think he’ll win the Tour this year. I hate it when crashes etc spoil anyone’s race, but it’s part of the sport.

His PN effort this year really hit home as I’ve dislocated my shoulder many times before getting surgery to prevent it, and to ride on after that…gets a grand chapeau bas from me.
 
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