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Totally agree. He's too darned good Not to take it down at least once as well as the Giro and a couple more monuments..
It's really his (and a few other riders') misfortune to be competing against Pogacar.

I'd rate Roglic V2020/2021 as good or better than any TdF winner going back to Indurain, and yes, I'm including Contador and Nibali (most "talented," whatever that means). I still don't know how I feel about Froome -- take away the team and ?? Not going to touch LA here. (I think Indurain was better than Roglic)

So the question is: How will PR win his TdF? Brilliant individual effort or team tactics, or mistake/incident involving Pogacar? We don't have a huge sample size but "team effort" failed in 2020 (failed to deliver a big margin before the ITT), so maybe give that one more year then try long-range raid at some point?
 
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It's really his (and a few other riders') misfortune to be competing against Pogacar.

I'd rate Roglic V2020/2021 as good or better than any TdF winner going back to Indurain, and yes, I'm including Contador and Nibali (most "talented," whatever that means). I still don't know how I feel about Froome -- take away the team and ?? Not going to touch LA here. (I think Indurain was better than Roglic)

So the question is: How will PR win his TdF? Brilliant individual effort or team tactics, or mistake/incident involving Pogacar? We don't have a huge sample size but "team effort" failed in 2020 (failed to deliver a big margin before the ITT), so maybe give that one more year then try long-range raid at some point?
Bit hard to argue Roglic > Contador for me. Pure W/kg they're all doing more now so you'd get *** like Keldermans Piancavallo climb of last year being a better performance than Quintana on Alpe d'Huez in 2013/2015.

Ofcourse Roglic would be an absolutely worthy Tour de France winner, but that does not mean the Tour title can come for granted just because he'd be a worthy winner. Worse riders than him have won it, and worse riders will win it after he's retired, but that doesn't make him more or less likely to beat Pogacar next year.

I hope he does tho, I don't want to get the Roddick-Federer vibes from this
 
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Bit hard to argue Roglic > Contador for me.

Ofcourse Roglic would be an absolutely worthy Tour de France winner, but that does not mean the Tour title can come for granted just because he'd be a worthy winner. Worse riders than him have won it, and worse riders will win it after he's retired, but that doesn't make him more or less likely to beat Pogacar next year.

I hope he does tho, I don't want to get the Roddick-Federer vibes from this
Same here, he needs to collect a few more GTs and maybe we can begin talking. Primoz is a much better one day rider with multiple semi-classics and a monument to his name vs Alberto's single semi-classic.
 
Bit hard to argue Roglic > Contador for me. Pure W/kg they're all doing more now so you'd get *** like Keldermans Piancavallo climb of last year being a better performance than Quintana on Alpe d'Huez in 2013/2015.

Ofcourse Roglic would be an absolutely worthy Tour de France winner, but that does not mean the Tour title can come for granted just because he'd be a worthy winner. Worse riders than him have won it, and worse riders will win it after he's retired, but that doesn't make him more or less likely to beat Pogacar next year.

I hope he does tho, I don't want to get the Roddick-Federer vibes from this
If Pog keeps delivering his amazing performances in GTs then beating him there will be hardest thing in cycling. Then again, every race is different and a lot of things can happen. I see Roglic ending up with 5-6 GTs and becoming one of the greatest cyclists of the 21st century. Not winning the Tour would be a hole but I think he'll do it.
 
No reason to drop 15 seconds on Loze, though. Roglic was already well ahead. Pog could have just stayed on his wheel, could still have feigned fatigue but finish s.t. like on Puy Mary.
Plan A was not getting dropped. Not to do more. During the whole race.

Maybe, but ideal scenario would be talking yellow as late as possible, but before the ITT, like on Cole dela Loze. There's no way anyone knew we're going to witness ride of the century!
IMHO UAE more or less knew they had 2 minute advantage with Pogačar and they knew they had a subpar team. I mean this will likely be the theme for a couple of years to come. That is Pogačar has 2 minute advantage on the start of a GT race. First you need to neutralize that and after the real racing begins. The rest of the world didn't know by then. UAE knew. And that is why they played on the friendship card until the TT.

P.S. Semi serious about it. Now they don't need to play on the friendship card anymore as they have Almeida.
 
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Plan A was not getting dropped. Not to do more. During the whole race.



IMHO UAE more or less knew they had 2 minute advantage with Pogačar and they knew they had a subpar team. I mean this will likely be the theme for a couple of years to come. That is Pogačar has 2 minute advantage on the start of a GT race. First you need to neutralize that and after the real racing begins. The rest of the world didn't know by then. UAE knew. And that is why they played on the friendship card until the TT.

P.S. Semi serious about it. Now they don't need to play on the friendship card anymore as they have Almeida.
So if I understood correctly, UAE knew before the start that Pogacar is going to beat Roglic by 2 minutes in that last ITT?!
They have some serious wizards and magicians on board then...
 
Plan A was not getting dropped. Not to do more. During the whole race.
I got that, but Pog finished 15 seconds back. That's getting dropped, or, what you seem to be implying, dropping 15 seconds on purpose ...to give Roglic a false sense of security?

If he had stayed in Roglic' wheel on Loze he'd still would have lost 2 bonus seconds. I don't see the upside to dropping any more time. There's always a risk even if you know are likely going to smash the TT. You can have a bad day or a mechanical, etc. Pog was already 40 seconds back at that point, but added another 17 seconds to his dificit just because he thought he had another minute to spare?
 
Plan A was not to get dropped, not to take yellow and to finish it off on ITT. Yes that is what i am saying.

Hence what UAE executed at TDF 2020 is their plan A.

As for things like punctures and losing some time. They didn't need 2 minutes. They needed one minute to win. All in all yes, likely they believed they have that covered. One minute.

Considering the way they raced the whole race and based on the data and measurements that bring certainty in modern cycling. Reckoning and special preparation. I feel that they were rather confident one minute is doable.
 
One mistake they shouldn't do is to be too much focused on Pogačar. They should perceive it like a black box. Not really trying to understand it beyond saying OK Pogačar has 2 minute head start. The rest is on us. On how Pogačar races that should be rather clear now. After two seasons on this level. Like lets say in week 1 there is a lot of potential already. Roglič to do a good time trial, try to crack other GC favorites on cobbles and do damage in cross-winds.

As for who to take. I would say they need 4 climbers for support that are in the best form. Then likely Roglič, van Aert and Dennis. Due to Tony ending his career i guess one spot left open and it will be interesting to see who gets it. This choice will likely have an effect on the overall team dynamics.
 
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@CyclistAbi
There is no way in hell UAE believed they were going to win a minute on Roglic in the final TT. Claiming they knew they had 2 minutes on him is complete and utter speculation. They probably knew Roglic can have a bad day and they were hoping for his bad day and they were hoping Pogi has the legs (which was far from certain as well). It was not their strategy to come a minute behind to the start of the last TT.

And here’s my evidence.
  1. Look at Pogacar and how agitated he was after Loze and even after stage 19. He couldn’t hide his frustration. And if that was acting, well he could be getting much more money in Hollywood than he is getting in UAE right now.
  2. If it was truly UAE strategy then why piss Primož off and win Colombier stage? Why not hide in the second place and play his little brother card some more? Because they were going all in whenever they could for the entire tour that’s why. In Colombier Pogacar presented himself as a major threat and if not sooner after that stage it was pointless hiding anymore.
You are my fellow Slovenian right? It hurts me to see you in so much pain right now. You seem to be suffering from some form of Stockholm syndrome… what happened in 2020 was a lot of luck for Pogacar. It was not some kind of genius plan or strategy to stay behind because they knew they had Primož in TT. They didn’t know s***. It could have turned the other way and Primož could do this years Vuelta final TT performance while Pogacar would do this years final TDF TT performance. Being a minute behind before the final TT was as close as they could come, because Primož was so good.
 
what happened in 2020 was a lot of luck for Pogacar
What are you saying? Did Roglic had mechanical or something to lose 2min in TT?

There was no luck in that win, just out of this world Tadej, who decided to put one of the best performances in history of cycling in that TT.

He also lost minute and a half in echalons, can't really say that helped him, right?

Only luck he had was crash of Roglic due to problems with the bike in Dauphine, what 2 weeks before TDF. How much that really effected the outcome, we will never know.
 
@bNator

I said they needed one minute to win and not two. IMHO UAE did feel that is doable. As for two minutes on any future GT race (after 2020). This is what more or less all teams accepted as being the truth. JV stating it publicly. Other teams acknowledging it by saying things like "we need to go back to the drawing boards". To address Pogačar variable.

As for you saying it was pure luck. No. There was a lot less luck involved than you believe. You can consider a successful execution of Plan A as being lucky. But not in a way you are trying to sell it.

As for some cheap psychology. No. I am not a victim on TDF 2020. Obviously i was not happy as Roglič didn't win. But Roglič more than bounced back and that is enough for me. Personally i am happy Roglič now gets to compete against a champion nobody will be able to deny greatness anymore. When beating him on some (GT) races. All in all Roglič now has enough (prestigious) wins to hold his own.

And all in all i detected your "disapproval" in last couple of posts. On like as you don't agree with an opinion of somebody else. And obviously as your opinion is the truth. Well, about that.
 
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As for some cheap psychology. Where i am currently regarding TDF 2020 and rivalry in between Roglič and Pogačar.

Personally i like it.

As currently it is on how it is supposed to be (Contador vs. Froome level) and hopefully it will last for another 3 years on this level. Fingers crossed. As for Tour title. For me it is more about the hug above anything else. Roglič is entitled to get a hug back and hopefully he gets it. Like in lets say TDF 2022 Pogačar looking back over his shoulder. Going up some MTF or during an ITT session. And there he is. On the back of his wheel a cyclist with a jersey and slogan on it saying saying:

C'mon give us a hug.

This is in my opinion a healthy level of rivalry. And i am sure that cycling fans all over the world will tend to appreciate it.

Bottom line for me it is about the hug. Couldn't care all that much about the rest.
 
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Bit hard to argue Roglic > Contador for me. Pure W/kg they're all doing more now so you'd get *** like Keldermans Piancavallo climb of last year being a better performance than Quintana on Alpe d'Huez in 2013/2015.

Ofcourse Roglic would be an absolutely worthy Tour de France winner, but that does not mean the Tour title can come for granted just because he'd be a worthy winner. Worse riders than him have won it, and worse riders will win it after he's retired, but that doesn't make him more or less likely to beat Pogacar next year.

I hope he does tho, I don't want to get the Roddick-Federer vibes from this
The question is, would nibali, froome and contador on his prime in 2021 do more w/kg than they did in their primes in the past? I think the answer is yes, because the training methods, alimentation, even bikes, are better today. So it's difficult to compare w/kg today with w/kg of some riders in the past, i believe nibali, contador and froome in his prime in 2021 would compete at least at the same level of pogacar and roglic.
 
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What are you saying? Did Roglic had mechanical or something to lose 2min in TT?

There was no luck in that win, just out of this world Tadej, who decided to put one of the best performances in history of cycling in that TT.

He also lost minute and a half in echalons, can't really say that helped him, right?

Only luck he had was crash of Roglic due to problems with the bike in Dauphine, what 2 weeks before TDF. How much that really effected the outcome, we will never know.
Of course there was luck involved. UAE could not have known that either Roglič would not have the legs or he was still as injured as he was after Dauphine. Not to belittle Pogačar's performance in any way but Roglič in top form that day would never have lost a minute, let alone as much as he did. Look at all his time trials from that point on - Basque, Vuelta 2021 (and 2020 to an extent), TDF stage 5 and especially the Olympics. It's safe to say Pogačar got lucky Roglič was not having his day....

I said they needed one minute to win and not two. IMHO UAE did feel that is doable. As for two minutes on any future GT race (after 2020). This is what more or less all teams accepted as being the truth. JV stating it publicly. Other teams acknowledging it by saying things like "we need to go back to the drawing boards". To address Pogačar variable.
I know nothing of "all teams accepted as being the truth". TJV stated that publicly, but we will never know how much of that was sandbagging, putting the pressure off etc. Fact is that Primož lost only 45 seconds riding like a zombie on this years TDF and Wout beat Pogačar cinvincingly in the last TT.

As for some cheap psychology. No. I am not a victim on TDF 2020. Obviously i was not happy as Roglič didn't win. But Roglič more than bounced back and that is enough for me. Personally i am happy Roglič now gets to compete against a champion nobody will be able to deny greatness anymore. When beating him on some (GT) races. All in all Roglič now has enough (prestigious) wins to hold his own.

And all in all i detected your "disapproval" in last couple of posts. On like as you don't agree with an opinion of somebody else. And obviously as your opinion is the truth. Well, about that.
It's not cheap psychology - it was a joke, actually. And my "disapproval" goes only as far as you would not listen to anything other people have to say - instead you keep repeating your narrative until everyone gets tired of rejecting it. You tend to ignore the points/evidence and just repeat your original claims before the evidence/points were presented to you. So now I fully expect you will once again say how it was all a plan A for UAE, how they thought they had two minutes on Roglič in TT, one minute confortably etc., etc. I presented two points of evidence in my post - you did not address either of them but instead, butchered my statement there was luck involved into "it was a pure luck" and repeated your stance once again.
 
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