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Did anyone find any good study how fast does form detoriate without training and how long does it take to get it back?
I was wondering if Roglič might not be 100% at the start of the Vuelta but might peak in the 3rd week when there is quite some hard stages..
Saw some video that said condition starts to go down after like 4 weeks of not riding.

But I don't think this was in world tier pro athletes, nor do I think it measured racing performance. I think basic metrics like VO2 wouldn't go down quickly, but he'd definitely be very rusty in racing conditions if he hadn't touched his bike for 4 weeks.
 





He made it big.
 
Form shouldn't taper off super quickly. The question is how much damage he did to his form by continuing for a week.

If he's back riding and races the Vuelta, I imagine he's more rusty than out of shape.
Rusty would be an understatement. The guy responds to few breaks (no pun...) but would need to be firing hard the week before or risk struggling to be in the part of the pack that avoids crashes. No doubt he'd get better but much could happen before he feels it.
 
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Am I the only one who doesn't really care if he rides the Vuelta? I mean, even if he gets into top shape, what is there left to prove? To collect the worthless Heras trophy of 4 Vuelta wins?

For his legacy I'd rather see him preparing for Worlds and Lombardia, two goals that would really add to his palmares. I understand that a GT is not nothing but given the circumstances the pros don't outweigh the risks (like not being completely recovered and basically having to abandon the season altogether).
 
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Am I the only one who doesn't really care if he rides the Vuelta? I mean, even if he gets into top shape, what is there left to prove? To collect the worthless Heras trophy of 4 Vuelta wins?

For his legacy I'd rather see him preparing for Worlds and Lombardia, two goals that would really add to his palmares. I understand that a GT is not nothing but given the circumstances the pros don't outweigh the risks (like not being completely recovered and basically having to abandon the season altogether).
A GT is a GT is a GT.

Also he's got a much better chance at winning the Vuelta than winning Lombardia and especially the WC.
 
He's going to be 33.

This is it, i.e. his peak years. You strike when you can, basically. I mean what's to look forward to for the rest of the season? Nothing much, at least as far as obtainable objectives go.

I fully expect him to be in the Vuelta & I'd be very disappointed if that's not the case. This is a rider who has shown he can win when he comes from a suboptimal preparation. Even before the TdF 2020 he was apparently doing terrible numbers in training (according to Dumoulin), whilst it's also worth noting Jumbo themselves advised against his participation in the Olympics ITT last year because they said his numbers weren't good enough. So it's not like maths, science & data is 100% reliable either.

Could he lose? Sure, but if his back is fine, go for it. If it's going to be tight (like 2020), just remember to play nice with the Movistar guys & everything will work out nicely on the final MTF.
 
He's going to be 33.

This is it, i.e. his peak years. You strike when you can, basically. I mean what's to look forward to for the rest of the season? Nothing much, at least as far as obtainable objectives go.

I fully expect him to be in the Vuelta & I'd be very disappointed if that's not the case. This is a rider who has shown he can win when he comes from a suboptimal preparation. Even before the TdF 2020 he was apparently doing terrible numbers in training (according to Dumoulin), whilst it's also worth noting Jumbo themselves advised against his participation in the Olympics ITT last year because they said his numbers weren't good enough. So it's not like maths, science & data is 100% reliable either.

Could he lose? Sure, but if his back is fine, go for it. If it's going to be tight (like 2020), just remember to play nice with the Movistar guys & everything will work out nicely on the final MTF.
And as long as he is healed enough that racing won't cause long term damage, it's better to gamble and race, even if it means abandoning halfway through, than not racing at all.
 
Also, who's to say that riding (and eventually winning) the Vuelta means he won't be good in Lombardia?
Of course, I tend to think that distance hurts Roglic there, or maybe he was just peaking for GdE and MT (now the latter is gone in a crime against humanity, seriously, guy who proposed that deserves more hate than Seo Kuss gets from LS) instead of GdL.

Besides, I don't think he'll ride the Vuelta if he is not recovered enough.
 
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I'm not sure that distance per se hurts Roglič (that much), but rather that the long races usually are last in a block of racing and that freshness matters more for long races than short races.

Roglič can hit the ground running from a training camp, see the 2019 Vuelta, but he will at some point run out of steam. I also don't think he fades in the third week because he doesn't recover well, but for particular reasons the times it has happened. When he is fresh, he also TTs well at the end of a GT, like the Vuelta last year.

I think part of the reason he seems to have been weaker this year, is that he has altered his prep and kept more in reserve for the Tour (and for the first time, his season plan was to do the Tour-Vuelta double). But we never got the chance to see if that was the case.
 
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