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Tour de France Expected shape of Vingegaard in the 2024 Tour de France

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What shape will Jonas Vingegaard be in for the 2024 Tour de France?


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I don't really buy the prep as the cause for last year. Would he have been better without it, I think yes, so it contributed. But what killed him was doing a great TT and then losing 1min 40 to Jonas after turning himself inside out to keep within 9 seconds for two weeks.

Peak pog would still have lost over a minute to Jonas in that TT.
My opinion before, during and after TDF 23 was the following: based on what Vinge did during TDF 22, Pog would lack the base to sustain consecutive days of full gas racing, and lose if Visma just keep applying the scorched earth tactics. The lack of base was due to the injury.

Now, Pog was first able to produce competitive performances, or even beat Vinge on some stages, that is, after reconsidering his strategy following the initial arse kicking surprise. But he could not sustain that level as the race went on, so I stand by that opinion. I think on day 1 he would not lose a minute in that TT.
 
I know some disagree but I still think doing that great TT drained his reserves. If not for the prep interruption from his LBL crash he would have had better reserves and recovery. Hence Loze collapse would may not have happened. I mean Felix Gall?
Maybe, but I think mentally he was done. His comments on the Netflix doco support this. He did look cooked at the end of the TT though. So in reality it was probably a bit of everything.
 
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I don't understand why so many think he'll be at his best in week 3, more than the amount of people that think he'll fade. I've seen this a lot over the years that people expect cyclist that are coming from an injury to start rusty but get better the more the race moves on. Sounds great in theory but is there any basis for that? Because the recent examples (Pogacar 2023, Remco 2021) more hint towards the opposite, as in, because of the injury they didn't have time to develope that base that is necessary to last three weeks on a top level.
If you have a solid base but for whatever reason haven't put the final touches on your form (intensity or race days or whatever), maybe you improve during the race. I think it's a carryover of this idea. However, if you've had serious disruptions and your base is not there, you probably aren't going to improve with the sudden baptism in the fires of the race - it will probably be the opposite.
 
I don't understand why so many think he'll be at his best in week 3, more than the amount of people that think he'll fade. I've seen this a lot over the years that people expect cyclist that are coming from an injury to start rusty but get better the more the race moves on. Sounds great in theory but is there any basis for that? Because the recent examples (Pogacar 2023, Remco 2021) more hint towards the opposite, as in, because of the injury they didn't have time to develope that base that is necessary to last three weeks on a top level.

Like I wrote in the other thread, I think he'll be around his Paris-Nice 2023 level. So good enough to challenge for the podium but if Pogacar is in top shape (which is to be expected) he won't be challenging for first.

I also voted for the fading in week three option and was very surprised that only one other had voted for that. I think it is a bit of a myth that you can ride yourself into form during a Grand Tour. I know there is anecdotal evidence to the contrary but especially if you fight for GC, I just don't think it's realistic.

But I guess his displays the last years have shown that he generally is really good in week three and that's why people assume that that skill will also be prevalent in this scenario. But I don't think things work like that.
 
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I also voted for the fading in week three option and was very surprised that only one other had voted for that. I think it is a bit of a myth that you can ride yourself into form during a Grand Tour. I know there is anecdotal evidence to the contrary but especially if you fight for GC, I just don't think it's realistic.
I believe this mainly depends on how you specifically prepared for your target in relation to your fatigue levels. If you have done all the endurance work but lack some high intensity work, you're quite likely to get better during the Tour. However if you've just cranked high intensity training to get your fresh 20 minutes W/kg back, you're gonna suffer by the end.
 
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I believe this mainly depends on how you specifically prepared for your target in relation to your fatigue levels. If you have done all the endurance work but lack some high intensity work, you're quite likely to get better during the Tour. However if you've just cranked high intensity training to get your fresh 20 minutes W/kg back, you're gonna suffer by the end.
Yes but don't we find it unlikely that he can have had the time to have done a sufficient amount of base training? There must have been quite a bit of detraining going on in the ICU period and before he could get on his bike, so I find him unlikely to still benefit sufficiently from his winter base.
 
I feel like a real question here is

1. How much did Vingegaard retain from all his work before Itzulia i.e. how important are the really long components of peaking/condition

2. How big is the contrast of a supermutant between his TdF peak form and his basic racing shape.

To me, the idea that Vingegaard could be at or near his best basically violates everything I know about training. Basically the only single mitigating factor is that he didn't get a catastrophic musculoskeletal injury in a location that's extremely important to cyclists.

From what I know, riders don't even really do a huge off season anymore. They don't do slow buildups anymore, they don't start do 0 intensity training before race season. In terms of training and detraining, he should probably be worse off than when he lines up in Gran Camino in February.

I honestly struggle to think of a fair comparison for a rider who lines up at a big race with an injury of similar magnitude and training load. I think Evenepoel in 2021 had been healthy a lot longer before he lined up at the Giro. Maybe Roglic in Tirreno last year compares somewhat.
I agree with your analysis. Being even near his top after his crash and the fractures and punctured lung would defy all laws of cycling. I cincerely hope he will totally recover, but not yet at the start of the Tour. Because that would completely destroy my faith in cycling.
 
I don't understand why so many think he'll be at his best in week 3, more than the amount of people that think he'll fade. I've seen this a lot over the years that people expect cyclist that are coming from an injury to start rusty but get better the more the race moves on. Sounds great in theory but is there any basis for that? Because the recent examples (Pogacar 2023, Remco 2021) more hint towards the opposite, as in, because of the injury they didn't have time to develope that base that is necessary to last three weeks on a top level.

Like I wrote in the other thread, I think he'll be around his Paris-Nice 2023 level. So good enough to challenge for the podium but if Pogacar is in top shape (which is to be expected) he won't be challenging for first.
You are right if it happened to be serious injurys (fractures, lungs..). Vingegaard and even Evenepoel will be affected by this. Maybe become better after a few days, but then fade.
But Van Aert proved a few years ago that surgery and stopping training for a few weeks, fairly close to the Tour, not having riden races before the Tour, can still result in a rider improving during the second half of the Tour. But of course, he had no fractures.
 
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I also voted for the fading in week three option and was very surprised that only one other had voted for that. I think it is a bit of a myth that you can ride yourself into form during a Grand Tour. I know there is anecdotal evidence to the contrary but especially if you fight for GC, I just don't think it's realistic.

But I guess his displays the last years have shown that he generally is really good in week three and that's why people assume that that skill will also be prevalent in this scenario. But I don't think things work like that.
 
But would it be fair to say that he peaked for the third week?

It's likely he peaked in the 3rd week indeed (intentionally or not). But look at Brailsford words:

"Collarbones these days are pretty quick operations and they heal really quickly, so you won't lose too much condition," Brailsford said. "It's a question of managing that peak condition between now and July. Normally we expect him to do Suisse or Dauphiné and then go to the Tour."

So completely different case from Vingo, not starting from "getting tired after 1 hour ride".
 
Definitely way different. Bernal was very good already in Suisse as well which meant that he was training very well at that point already whereas Vingegaard simply couldn't fit any races as he basically only started training seriously when Dauphine started.
 
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Honestly I think he will be good enough to challenge for the victory. Vingegaard has such a high peak that even while thinking that he will not be at his absolute best, he will likely give Pogačar a run for his money on that condition. I don't think that he will win though, the route this year is not as good for him as last year's and I think this time around Pogi is stronger and UAE's superior TT set-up could make a difference.
 
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Honestly I think he will be good enough to challenge for the victory. Vingegaard has such a high peak that even while thinking that he will not be at his absolute best he will likely give Pogačar a run for his money on that condition. I don't think that he will win though, the route this year is not as good for him as last year's and I think this time around Pogi is stronger and UAE's superior TT set-up could make a difference.
If Vingegaard is within striking distance before the Nice TT, then I think Pog gets Poged.