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Tour de France Expected shape of Vingegaard in the 2024 Tour de France

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What shape will Jonas Vingegaard be in for the 2024 Tour de France?


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  • Poll closed .
He's not the number one favorite (that's Pog, obviously) but placing him lower than second favorite starts to appear like personal bias (especially when he gets placed lower than riders he always beats in GT's & one week races alike).

Vingegaard is massively overrated right now based on nothing but wishful thinking, Visma's public relations campaign & also the pre-Tour excitement from his fans & casual viewers who want a rematch of last year's TdF. But we know what he's like when he's had a less than optimal prep (Paris-Nice 2022, Vuelta week 1 last year when he was ill). There's simply no way a guy in ICU back in April is going to do what his fans imagine he'll do in July.

Meanwhile I'll unequivocally state Rog's greatest problem is A/surviving in the bunch during tense moments & B/Avoiding an off-day at a critical moment.

If he gets both right, he'll be in the mix in the top 3. That final ITT also suits him perfectly.
Rogla has also not had the best prep, and while Vingegaard is in an unknown shape he does have a higher ceiling. So if you expect Pogi to be very strong, I'd place my bet on the wild card.
 
I actually do think (like @Extinction ) that Vingo's numbers must be quite good and that's why JV took him to the Tour. If he was weak then further training towards Vuelta would be optimal. We all realize that his preparation was rushed (JV looked desperate to improve him as much as possible in a few weeks - in this aspect I agree with @Rackham ) so even if his 30-minute power is looking good he may still suffer big time at some point of the race due to simply not being ready for 3 weeks of hard racing.
 
I've seen this repeated quite a bit over the past few days... & yet I think they absolutely would take him to the Tour even if he's "just" fit enough yet nowhere near where he was last year. They'd do it for sponsorship reasons & also sporting reasons as well because a few more weeks of racing could see his form improve quite a bit, i.e. for example in week 3. I also reckon Vingegaard himself wants to go (a bit like Rog back in 2022 when he asked to go the the Vuelta despite his suboptimal preparation).

Maybe Visma honestly think a TdF win is possible, maybe not. But Vingegaard can still get stage wins & he's their star rider. So he goes.
I don't think you put the number one at the Tour the past two years in the line-up if he's "just fit enough" to ride. You have to respect a rider of his pedigree for the future. Putting him in a race to get humiliated doesn't respect his stature. But I'm not in the mind of Visma, not do I know his actual condition.
 
I don't think you put the number one at the Tour the past two years in the line-up if he's "just fit enough" to ride. You have to respect a rider of his pedigree for the future. Putting him in a race to get humiliated doesn't respect his stature. But I'm not in the mind of Visma, not do I know his actual condition.

I think it really just comes down to the obvious cynicism & broken economic model in this sport whereby a podium in the Tour (like second or third, coupled with a stage win or two) is worth more money to the sponsors than a win at the Vuelta.

I read a month or so ago an interview in which Ralph Denk spoke about how important the Tour is to the team's finances (I can't remember the exact number but it represented 75% or thereabouts of revenue & importance). It's quite ridiculous really.

I mean we might hate it as fans (I certainly do) but the Tour cannibalizes everything. So I don't think it's a stretch to imagine Visma would choose "uncertain form" at the Tour over certain form at the Vuelta, i.e. if it meant at least getting something in July. And these days a podium contender in the Tour can still be 10 minutes down in GC considering the calibre of a rider like Pog.
 
You're the one making the contest. I just said they could (and they will) be used as alibis for yet another failed opportunity at clearing things out between those two. Improve your reading skills, pls.
There will always be some excuse. Weaker team, unfavorable course, wrong ambient temperature... I don't think we'll be able to put this debate to rest before they retire, and even then I'm afraid I'm going to have to keep hearing excuses for the rest of my career as a fan.
 
I think it really just comes down to the obvious cynicism & broken economic model in this sport whereby a podium in the Tour (like second or third, coupled with a stage win or two) is worth more money to the sponsors than a win at the Vuelta.

I read a month or so ago an interview in which Ralph Denk spoke about how important the Tour is to the team's finances (I can't remember the exact number but it represented 75% or thereabouts of revenue & importance). It's quite ridiculous really.

I mean we might hate it as fans (I certainly do) but the Tour cannibalizes everything. So I don't think it's a stretch to imagine Visma would choose "uncertain form" at the Tour over certain form at the Vuelta, i.e. if it meant at least getting something in July. And these days a podium contender in the Tour can still be 10 minutes down in GC considering the calibre of a rider like Pog.
Yea, but what does Visma have to gain by sending Vingegaard to the Tour if not up to smack, if only to damage its reputation. There's Jorgensen to go for a podium, without expectations.
 
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I think his numbers will be good in training and he will be fine..otherwise Jumbo wouldn't start him
However he doesn't have a good base so by 3rd week he may be struggling
Yes there is this. But his crash was very bad and I wonder about his confidence on the bike - descending and even in the bunch on flat sprint stages? Visma can’t control everything and you can’t replicate that on training camps.
 
We can talk about Jonas and his shape all day long. He wouldn't be at the Tour if he wasn't ready. However his shape might be good, hell even better than before, but the one issue I have is that it's only training. You don't have to battle for position in training. You are riding safely either in the front of behind your teammates. But in a race, especially in the early Tour stages you have to fight to be in the right place at the right time. And even if you're miles above everyone else that can't save you if you are caught out. There is also the mental stability of Jonas. Is he confident enough to do that, put himself in that position early. We know teams like Ineos will be at the front no matter what, UAE will also want to be safe. And all of the sprinter teams... There are also quite a few downhill moments in the first few stages towards the end. We know Jonas is a good descender but again will he risk it? When the mountains come I have no worries. He will be either the best or 2nd best up the climbs.
 
Tiesj Benoot trys to calm down the expectations -
https://cyclinguptodate.com/cycling...he-fact-that-jonas-will-make-it-to-the-podium
"Jonas is riding the Tour because the team management thinks there is a chance that he can be top. But I am one hundred percent sure that no-one from the team dares to bet money on the fact that Jonas will make it to the podium," he says.

Although completely understandable, it shines a light into the present worries that the defending champion may not have been able to prepare well enough for the Tour after suffering brutal injuries in a crash at Itzulia Basque Country.
 
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Tiesj Benoot trys to calm down the expectations -
https://cyclinguptodate.com/cycling...he-fact-that-jonas-will-make-it-to-the-podium
"Jonas is riding the Tour because the team management thinks there is a chance that he can be top. But I am one hundred percent sure that no-one from the team dares to bet money on the fact that Jonas will make it to the podium," he says.

Although completely understandable, it shines a light into the present worries that the defending champion may not have been able to prepare well enough for the Tour after suffering brutal injuries in a crash at Itzulia Basque Country.
Isn‘t betting on your own sports event also illegal?
 
  • Haha
Reactions: noob