• The Cycling News forum is looking to add some volunteer moderators with Red Rick's recent retirement. If you're interested in helping keep our discussions on track, send a direct message to @SHaines here on the forum, or use the Contact Us form to message the Community Team.

    In the meanwhile, please use the Report option if you see a post that doesn't fit within the forum rules.

    Thanks!

Tour de France Expected shape of Vingegaard in the 2024 Tour de France

Page 6 - Get up to date with the latest news, scores & standings from the Cycling News Community.

What shape will Jonas Vingegaard be in for the 2024 Tour de France?


  • Total voters
    153
  • Poll closed .
Tiesj Benoot trys to calm down the expectations -
https://cyclinguptodate.com/cycling...he-fact-that-jonas-will-make-it-to-the-podium
"Jonas is riding the Tour because the team management thinks there is a chance that he can be top. But I am one hundred percent sure that no-one from the team dares to bet money on the fact that Jonas will make it to the podium," he says.

Although completely understandable, it shines a light into the present worries that the defending champion may not have been able to prepare well enough for the Tour after suffering brutal injuries in a crash at Itzulia Basque Country.

I called it!

There's basically an unknown form factor & they're hoping for the best. It can go either way. But the Tour is the Tour so 'll do everything they can to get a good result. It seems reasonable & understandable enough tbh.

It doesn't mean they're sandbagging & will unleash Jonas 2024 in the third week with a Granon x10 performance, nor does it mean Vingegaard will be cr*p either.

It'll be what it'll be. It's the biggest race of the year & they're taking the weapons at their disposal, come what may.
 
  • Like
Reactions: SHAD0W93
Or it’s just a publicity stunt to calm sponsors

I think that's equal to the same tbh.

Visma is going to the Tour with the cards they've been dealt. The management wants Vingegeaard there, the sponsors want Vingegeaard there & I'd hazard a guess Vingegaard wants to be there.

The part I strongly disagree with is the assumption Vingegaard must have fine form & TdF winning legs to be on the startlist. I don't think so. In fact this sport has often demonstrated the complete opposite: riders go into races with subpar condition for a myriad of reasons, namely when that's all the team has.

What was the alternative? Kooij in sprints for stage wins? That's just kicking the can down the road because they've got the same problem: a stronger rival (in the case of sprints, Jasper Philipsen). So I think they'd rather take their chances with a shot at a decent GC with Vingegaard.

Like I said, a podium can be achieved with a 10 minute deficit on Pog. I assume that must be part of their thinking as well.
 
I think that's equal to the same tbh.

Visma is going to the Tour with the cards they've been dealt. The management wants Vingegeaard there, the sponsors want Vingegeaard there & I'd hazard a guess Vingegaard wants to be there.

The part I strongly disagree with is the assumption Vingegaard must have fine form & TdF winning legs to be on the startlist. I don't think so. In fact this sport has often demonstrated the complete opposite: riders go into races with subpar condition for a myriad of reasons, namely when that's all the team has.

What was the alternative? Kooij in sprints for stage wins? That's just kicking the can down the road because they've got the same problem: a stronger rival (in the case of sprints, Jasper Philipsen). So I think they'd rather take their chances with a shot at a decent GC with Vingegaard.

Like I said, a podium can be achieved with a 10 minute deficit on Pog. I assume that must be part of their thinking as well.
In sports psychology there is this thing where you learn to lose. This is a risk of taking him to consequential races unprepared
 
  • Like
Reactions: noob and Rackham
I don't think you did, though. The team doesn't 'bet on it', but thinks he can possibly challenge FTW.

You: "After some consideration I've reached the conclusion he'll be 'okay' but nowhere near the yellow jersey. He might grab a stage win though (this will be painted as a big win in & of itself). I don't believe he'll win the Tour [...]"

That's... semantics?

If you want to play that game, I reckon on the 'spectrum of predictions' mine was far closer to the picture Tiesj Benoot painted of the Vingegaard situation than many of the very optimistic predictions we saw after the Visma team was announced.

There are people here on this forum & all over social media who really do think it'll be another battle between Pog & Vinge whilst the rest are all fighting for scraps, i.e. with Vinge coming good in week 3 & dropping some watts bombs like the good old days of 2022 & 2023. Meanwhile I do not think that's realistic at all.

It looks like Benoot doesn't think that's realistic either (unless people think he's also deliberately downplaying his teammate's chances... at which point we've only got 6 days to wait before we find out some of the truth on stage 1 in Florence).
 
Witnessing the Belgian national, I could see Van Aert struggling. He was not really bad, but gave never the impression he could win. Not always able to maintain his position in the peloton. Or to move up. At the end, he could sprint for victory, but was outsprinted. So, he is still not in topshape. But then, how could Vingegaard be ? He crashed weeks later and started training weeks later of Van Aert.
 
Nothing any of the team staff or riders say is worth listening to at this point, the bike is the only thing that will do the talking. The team mostly relaying confidence while also making a few comments about not being certain of a podium is about what you’d expect no matter what shape he’s actually in right now.

The’ll keep all 3 of their riders in contention as long as possible because unless they really are 100% bluffing, they’re in uncharted territory themselves and have no idea what to expect if Vingegaard makes it out of week 1 still in contention.
 
Well we don't have to wait long to get a much better idea. The Galibier is on Tuesday next week - 8 days.
I think we might even learn this at stage 1. If Pogacar has any doubt about maybe fading a bit in the third week, he has to go all out in the beginning. If Vingegaard isn't that good in the beginning I wouldn't be surprised if Pogacar takes 30s already day 1
 
I think we might even learn this at stage 1. If Pogacar has any doubt about maybe fading a bit in the third week, he has to go all out in the beginning. If Vingegaard isn't that good in the beginning I wouldn't be surprised if Pogacar takes 30s already day 1
If he is in form UAE tends us to believe he is they will go full gas just to test the opponents if nothing else.
 
Reading between the lines, re: a recent interview, the team seems to think that Vingegaard could lose minutes in week 1, but could possibly still be competitive overall. Stages 19 - 21 will be crucial.

It will be interesting to see how Kuss is used. They can't support Vingegaard, Jorgenson and him. Jorgenson deserves the benefit of the doubt at this point.
 
Last edited:
A better question will be who’s further behind after week 1; Kuss, Jorgensen, or Vingegaard.

Pretty sure it will be Kuss if they didn't totally miscaculat Vingegaards condition, which is possible. It's also possible they simply don't know how he'll react to racing. But my guess is that his numbers can't be *** otherwise he'd not be announced. The first week does include a time trial, so even if Kuss doesn't loose time on the first stages (which he will I think because he's Kuss) the TT will do it.
 
I think we might even learn this at stage 1. If Pogacar has any doubt about maybe fading a bit in the third week, he has to go all out in the beginning. If Vingegaard isn't that good in the beginning I wouldn't be surprised if Pogacar takes 30s already day 1
I've shared my thoughts on this forum a couple of weeks ago, about the scenario you first mention, of which is very possible,. If he lacks anything, then there are many factors, other than just GC, which make themselves felt on the first few stages.

But why 30s?

It's not an uphill puncheur finish.
After the last of the climbs I think it is approx. 10k downhill followed by 10k completely flat towards Rimini. Then it should be caused by Visma trying to pull in, chasing after a front field with Pogi, trying to limit too unconfortable gaps.

But in that case I can better imagine far more damage than 30s.

With a front group consisting of, apart from a presumably really strong set of UAE riders, maybe a single Visma rider and then tough winning candidates with strong teammates who can make it extremely difficult for Visma if they have to nurse Jonas and constantly adjust the speed thereafter over several puncheur hills and quirky slopes in a hectic pursuit race.

This kind of thing can do FAR more damage on the stages to Rimini and Bologna if the stages are raced really aggressivly from the starting line - e.g. just by the UAE "following" without using too much effort, which they have to save for week 3.

But as I mentioned earlier - I have no clue about Jonas's current shape nor his abilities in group competition mode.
I can only state that he has zero kilometers of race training leading up to the toughest GT of the 3. That may have something to say when he stands on the starting line next to others with fresh race legs.
 
Last edited: