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Tour de France Expected shape of Vingegaard in the 2024 Tour de France

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What shape will Jonas Vingegaard be in for the 2024 Tour de France?


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But why 30s?

It's not an uphill puncheur finish.
After the last of the climbs I think it is approx. 10km downhill followed by completely flat towards Rimini. Then it should be caused by Visma pulling Jonas back in on her own, chasing after a front field with Pogi.
If I was UAE I would set a high pace starting from Cote de Barbotto. By the time you start with Cote de San Marino, there should only be 30-40 riders left, and most of them should have difficulty breathing. If Pogacar goes hard on San Marino, and no one is able to follow, while doing a decent downhill, they won't catch him. He gets 10s at the finish, Vingegaard won't take any bonus seconds. So I wouldn't be surprised if he finished 20s ahead of the pack.
 
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I assign a 90% probability that he will be again the best with Pogacar (10% are sentimental "Roglic gets it right at his last real shot at a TdF win" points). Evenepoel and co are simply not up there in GTs with those two.

I voted for "Good enough to challenge for the victory, but he won't be at his best until the end of the Tour" since he obviously lost training days but has really shown superb in-GT recovery the last 3 additions and at the Vuelta as well, which he really went in undercooked but certainly was the strongest towards the end again.
 
If I was UAE I would set a high pace starting from Cote de Barbotto. By the time you start with Cote de San Marino, there should only be 30-40 riders left, and most of them should have difficulty breathing. If Pogacar goes hard on San Marino, and no one is able to follow, while doing a decent downhill, they won't catch him. He gets 10s at the finish, Vingegaard won't take any bonus seconds. So I wouldn't be surprised if he finished 20s ahead of the pack.
Ofc possible scenario if Visma manages to keep it all together all the way until the buttom at Côte de San Marino.
However I can imagine several possible interesting scenarios a long time before that, where Visma can suddenly end up in a shower of headaches and dilemmas, if it all blows up right from the start of the stage and Jonas struggles a bit with it. As mentioned earlier, it doesn't have to be the UAE using all its efforts, just taking a comfortable back seat in the front group while Visma is nursing.

But well - Jonas is really an unknown unknown to me yet.
Just mentioning worst case scenarioes for Visma and the vultures pounce on him from all corners and edges at once.
 
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If I was UAE I would set a high pace starting from Cote de Barbotto. By the time you start with Cote de San Marino, there should only be 30-40 riders left, and most of them should have difficulty breathing. If Pogacar goes hard on San Marino, and no one is able to follow, while doing a decent downhill, they won't catch him. He gets 10s at the finish, Vingegaard won't take any bonus seconds. So I wouldn't be surprised if he finished 20s ahead of the pack.
If UAE knows Pog is in top shape, but not Vingo, why would they bury the team and send Pog into TT mode on the first stage? So I think they will play it conservatively, knowing what Vingo did to Pog in the last two Tours. Unless Vingo is clearly struggling they would be wise to save their bullets.
 
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If UAE knows Pog is in top shape, but not Vingo, why would they bury the team and send Pog into TT mode on the first stage? So I think they will play it conservatively, knowing what Vingo did to Pog in the last two Tours. Unless Vingo is clearly struggling they would be wise to save their bullets.
Because Vingo might get better by the third week, so try to get as much time as possible before you lose time in the third week because you start feeling the double attempt in your legs
 
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Because Vingo might get better by the third week, so try to get as much time as possible before you lose time in the third week because you start feeling the double attempt in your legs
Right, but here is the tricky thing, and why I said Visma should keep everybody in the dark for as long as possible; Vingegaard could get weaker in the third week, having missed so much training, for the energy the body expends in the long healing process and the fact that he hasn't raced since Itzulia, which might make him more uncomfortable and therefore nervous in the beginning of the Tour, causing him to expend more energy just riding in the peloton. So if Pog is on his best level, why do a TT to the finish on day one? He won't need the time so early in my (hypocritical) scenario or he could pay for it in the end in yours.
 
Right, but here is the tricky thing, and why I said Visma should keep everybody in the dark for as long as possible; Vingegaard could get weaker in the third week, having missed so much training, for the energy the body expends in the long healing process and the fact that he hasn't raced since Itzulia, which might make him more uncomfortable and therefore nervous in the beginning of the Tour, causing him to expend more energy just riding in the peloton. So if Pog is on his best level, why do a TT to the finish on day one? He won't need the time so early in my (hypocritical) scenario or he could pay for it in the end in yours.
There are multiple scenarios that could happen. I'm just saying what I would do.

Pogacar could indeed pay for efforts made in the first week, in the third week. Just like they could pay for efforts not made in the first week, in the third week if Vingegaard would take time back.
 
There are multiple scenarios that could happen. I'm just saying what I would do.

Pogacar could indeed pay for efforts made in the first week, in the third week. Just like they could pay for efforts not made in the first week, in the third week if Vingegaard would take time back.
Yea, but the beauty is he already has paid for efforts in the first week, but perhaps should dare upon that losing strategy again, maybe to his undoing (sardonic smile). It's a mystery wrapped in an enigma.
 
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Jul 21, 2023
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I guess we'll have to see, but the feeling is good. I don't believe they bring him to the tour if he's weak. The hope of course is that he'll improve throughout the tour and reach peak form come the 3rd week.

It's gonna be interesting to see how they'll ride stage 1 and espescially 4.