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Tour de France Expected shape of Vingegaard in the 2024 Tour de France

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What shape will Jonas Vingegaard be in for the 2024 Tour de France?


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I expect him to be as good as last year and I'm looking forward to a great battle between him and Pogacar. I think Vingegaard will get his third win.
I think the team expect him is so good that he show that level and can figh for victory, but of coure they have serious doubts....They go with him becouse is his best rider, the best rider of the world for le Tour, and he must be on the start, but it is almost impossible he can be at the begining at his best. When Contador won that Vuelta to Froome he was training several weeks at a high level, and despite that he started not very good the race. The start is no so hard like at Bilbao, but there is an important stage at stage 4.
 
I think the team expect him is so good that he show that level and can figh for victory, but of coure they have serious doubts....They go with him becouse is his best rider, the best rider of the world for le Tour, and he must be on the start, but it is almost impossible he can be at the begining at his best. When Contador won that Vuelta to Froome he was training several weeks at a high level, and despite that he started not very good the race. The start is no so hard like at Bilbao, but there is an important stage at stage 4.
I think that sounds about exactly right.

I would think UAE would be pushing hard on certain stages in the first week. Don't know if they'll have the chance to bury him with the shorter climbs on day 1, and the easier side of the Galibier on offer on day 4, but they have to be thinking put what time into him you can now, you'll need it later. I would think stage 1 is going to explode some folks. We'll see if Vingo is one of them, but to me UAE have to try and separate from day 1.

I realize the Tour is heavily back loaded with the long climbs. Would be better for the other teams if some bigger climbs came earlier, but I think there's enough difficulty that they'll try hard to cook him.
 
Pogacar is kind of in a conundrum by having gauge his efforts to try and gain time early but also avoiding unnecessary attacks that waste energy, especially if they're worried Jonas might come good in the second half. And we still don't know how he'll handle back-to-back GT. Should be fine but he's never done it.

That said, I would be shocked if UAE doesn't set hard temp in the second half of Stage 1 to test things. Same for Stage 4. There's still plenty of opportunities for Pogi to gain time with late attacks and bonus seconds. He could be really conservative and gain a lot of time on the road with limited expense. But then does he worry about losing time in TTs? Lot of questions and lots of different stages. Got gravel on Stage 9. Big stuff in Pyrenees. Very hard finish. Should be fun while it lasts.
 
That said, I would be shocked if UAE doesn't set hard temp in the second half of Stage 1 to test things. Same for Stage 4. There's still plenty of opportunities for Pogi to gain time with late attacks and bonus seconds. He could be really conservative and gain a lot of time on the road with limited expense. But then does he worry about losing time in TTs? Lot of questions and lots of different stages. Got gravel on Stage 9. Big stuff in Pyrenees. Very hard finish. Should be fun while it lasts.

UAE will maybe set a hard pace on stage 1: not to setup Pogacar's attack (it's not good for this) but to test his rivals a bit and reduce the group size. I think it will be decided in a small group sprint (with Pog likely the favourite). Stage 2 is much better for Pogacar's attack actually (to gain some time at least over some rivals). Stage 4 will be an all-out UAE assault on Galibier.
 
Stage 2 will be interesting as Roglic beat Pogacar up the climb to San Luca last year, after UAE drilled it all the way. As the finish in the Tour is after the descent and not at the top, then maybe a different tactic from UAE.

If Pog drops his rivals he will go 100% to keep it to the line. If Roglic/Evenepoel is in a really good form then he may follow Pogacar (who I don't doubt will attack). Then it depends, if Vingo isn't able to follow the Slovenians/Belgian should cooperate to the line. Otherwise others will likely catch up. Anyway, Pog should be the favourite in the final sprint. In case of a group a likely scenario is an attack on the descent by another UAE guy (for victory or to force others to work before Pog unleashes his sprint).
 
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That said, I would be shocked if UAE doesn't set hard temp in the second half of Stage 1 to test things. Same for Stage 4. There's still plenty of opportunities for Pogi to gain time with late attacks and bonus seconds. He could be really conservative and gain a lot of time on the road with limited expense. But then does he worry about losing time in TTs? Lot of questions and lots of different stages. Got gravel on Stage 9. Big stuff in Pyrenees. Very hard finish. Should be fun while it lasts.
You forgot stage 2 to Bologna. Also plenty of nice opportunities to crack things up.

And hard pace only from the 2nd half of the 1st leg? It's probably OK if there is a favorite front group that blows the field. But if it has been near cruising speeds for the first half, then it is not certain that it will have an effect. The best thing for the UAE will be to find a collaboration with other teams, possibly. via breakaways and quirks with situations that can arise where Visma comes into overtime early in the stage.

If Vismas troubles starts later, let's say with 80k again for the last four climbs, and has been riding near recovery pulse until then, then they have the opportunity to pull the elasticity a little and maybe even pull it all back the last 26k from San Marino down to Rimini

If I were Gianetti, I would put it much more explosively on the 1st and 2nd stages. Their goal must be to break Jonas and get Visma in several dilemmas about who is really the leader of the team - here UAE's distribution of roles and condition is a huge strength that simply must be exploited before Jonas possible recovery as the riders enter the final week with the high mountains.
 
And then
You forgot stage 2 to Bologna. Also plenty of nice opportunities to crack things up.

And hard pace only from the 2nd half of the 1st leg? It's probably OK if there is a favorite front group that blows the field. But if it has been near cruising speeds for the first half, then it is not certain that it will have an effect. The best thing for the UAE will be to find a collaboration with other teams, possibly. via breakaways and quirks with situations that can arise where Visma comes into overtime early in the stage.

If Vismas troubles starts later, let's say with 80k again for the last four climbs, and has been riding near recovery pulse until then, then they have the opportunity to pull the elasticity a little and maybe even pull it all back the last 26k from San Marino down to Rimini

If I were Gianetti, I would put it much more explosively on the 1st and 2nd stages. Their goal must be to break Jonas and get Visma in several dilemmas about who is really the leader of the team - here UAE's distribution of roles and condition is a huge strength that simply must be exploited before Jonas possible recovery as the riders enter the final week with the high mountains.
And then you have to consider Vingegaard has another weapon in his arsenal, he all but destroyed Pog the last two Tours. So what if UAE go all-in the first two stages and don't drop Jonas? Me thinks they are f-ed in week 3.
 
And then

And then you have to consider Vingegaard has another weapon in his arsenal, he all but destroyed Pog the last two Tours. So what if UAE go all-in the first two stages and don't drop Jonas? Me thinks they are f-ed in week 3.

Not necessarily. I actually think Vingo may be quite strong early on (if it's his numbers that convinced JV to take him, not sponsors pressure) and could crack at some point later (due to building his form too quickly). It will make UAE nervous and more prone to mistakes though.
 
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And then

And then you have to consider Vingegaard has another weapon in his arsenal, he all but destroyed Pog the last two Tours. So what if UAE go all-in the first two stages and don't drop Jonas? Me thinks they are f-ed in week 3.
they'll be fü-dd anyway if Jonas is back at last years level in week 3 (hardly doubt), so they have to make a difference with safe marfin in advance. E.g. just by following aggressive breakaways on the wheel, while, lets say, Jonas is struggling to get in the race shape.
 
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Not necessarily. I actually think Vingo may be quite strong early on (if it's his numbers that convinced JV to take him, not sponsors pressure) and could crack at some point later (due to building his form too quickly). It will make UAE nervous and more prone to mistakes though.
And that is the big Shakespearean question. I don't think, however, if Jonas is good the first week he declines late in the race. For he must be undercooked and have a margin for improvement.
 
And that is the big Shakespearean question. I don't think, however, if Jonas is good the first week he declines late in the race. For he must be undercooked and have a margin for improvement.

It could actually be both. He could be a bit rusty in the first few stages (which will be exploited by UAE), then progresses with his form but can't keep high level all the way till the end of the race. Oh man, so many scenarios, we will know more soon!
 
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Froome Dawg reckons that Vingegaard will have problems just breathing ...
https://cyclinguptodate.com/cycling...-the-2024-tour-de-france-after-punctured-lung
"He’s not raced since his crash in Itzulia Basque Country, and just looking at the resulting injuries, you have to be mindful of where his body might be at. He had a collapsed lung, and that’s something that I had back in 2019 from my Dauphiné crash. I can speak from personal experience as to how tough that is to come back from," Froome details. "It’s not just the time off the bike but just being able to breathe normally hurts for months down the line so I can’t even imagine how he’s managed to prepare for the Tour with that sort of injury. Chapeau to him but it must have taken a toll on his preparations.
 
It is very hard for me to imagine Vingegaard being in anything resembling the form needed to challenge for the overall win.
The nature of his injuries plus the fact that he missed so much preparation and didn't race since the crash.. I hope he can build the form and make it a great race but to me it seems just impossible.

I don't buy the 'they wouldn't bring him if they didn't think he could win' - aside from everything there's difference between 'think he can win' and 'hoping for a miracle '.
I don't buy his teammates saying he can barely ride the bike (or something to that effect) either, of course. He probably still can be top 10, even top 5 but to win? Doubt it.
 
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It is very hard for me to imagine Vingegaard being in anything resembling the form needed to challenge for the overall win.
The nature of his injuries plus the fact that he missed so much preparation and didn't race since the crash.. I hope he can build the form and make it a great race but to me it seems just impossible.

I don't buy the 'they wouldn't bring him if they didn't think he could win' - aside from everything there's difference between 'think he can win' and 'hoping for a miracle '.
I don't buy his teammates saying he can barely ride the bike (or something to that effect) either, of course. He probably still can be top 10, even top 5 but to win? Doubt it.
They probably think its 50/50, which, given what he's been through, are not bad odds actually.
 
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"We did what we could, but for sure it's not optimal." Team Visma | Lease a Bike coach Mathieu Heijboer says
https://www.cyclingweekly.com/news/...itive-but-there-are-question-marks-says-coach

TT will be a problem on stage 7 by the sounds of it.
Maybe I haven't studied the route carefully enough, but I'd guess that stages 1-4 are nowhere near hard enough to shake Vingegaard, even if he's not in optimal shape. So that first TT could be a 'moment of truth' and a chance for UAE to really make a difference.

The big mountain stages this year seem to be stacked in the final week from stage 14 onwards with a culmination in the last couple of stages. I'd guess that's where the TdF will be won - not with a few seconds gained here or there in the first half of the Tour. I remember Vingegaard saying last year - in response to Pogacar outsprinting him at several finishes - that "the Tour will be won by minutes, not seconds".

Vingegaard has been so dominant in the highest mountains and TT's in the last two years that I really struggle to see him collapsing in that third week. I think he'll hang on the first two weeks, maybe lose a few seconds here or there, ride conservatively as usual, then crush everyone when it really matters ...