First American to win Paris Roubaix

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Which US rider has the best shot to win Paris Roubaix in their career

  • Quinn Simmons

    Votes: 4 10.0%
  • Matteo Jorgenson

    Votes: 1 2.5%
  • Neilson Powless

    Votes: 1 2.5%
  • Luke Lamperti

    Votes: 7 17.5%
  • Magnus Sheffield

    Votes: 12 30.0%
  • AJ August

    Votes: 2 5.0%
  • Colby Simmons

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Will never happen before the ice caps melt and submerge Northern France

    Votes: 9 22.5%
  • Keegan Swenson

    Votes: 1 2.5%
  • Justin "Vino" Williams

    Votes: 3 7.5%

  • Total voters
    40
if not Hinacpie lol then Lamperti
They haven’t shown any classics-riding chops yet the way, for instance, Powless and Jorgenson have, so why would you pick those two over the others to win Roubaix? Or is it the point in the thread where folks are just throwing out names of riders they like? ( which is fine of course, but a little confusing).
 
They haven’t shown any classics-riding chops yet the way, for instance, Powless and Jorgenson have, so why would you pick those two over the others to win Roubaix? Or is it the point in the thread where folks are just throwing out names of riders they like? ( which is fine of course, but a little confusing).
I think it's reasonable to say that we've seen Powless and Jorgenson closer to their respective peaks, i.e. have less room for growth. And if you don't think their peaks are good enough to win PR outside of some major luck, or you think they're more suited to hillier courses, then you have to look to younger riders such as Lamperti. (Who has, by the way, shown he can handle tough, technical races and unpaved parcours, just at a lower level than the WT.)

I have to say it was a brain fart on my part not to include Riley Sheehan. Colby Simmons is a stretch to be on this list at this point, although probably will be at least decent. I don't know if we have enough information about Enzo Hincapie aside from his lineage to make any kind of guess at his ultimate ceiling.
 
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I think it's reasonable to say that we've seen Powless and Jorgenson closer to their respective peaks, i.e. have less room for growth. And if you don't think their peaks are good enough to win PR outside of some major luck, or you think they're more suited to hillier courses, then you have to look to younger riders such as Lamperti. (Who has, by the way, shown he can handle tough, technical races and unpaved parcours, just at a lower level than the WT.)

I have to say it was a brain fart on my part not to include Riley Sheehan. Colby Simmons is a stretch to be on this list at this point, although probably will be at least decent. I don't know if we have enough information about Enzo Hincapie aside from his lineage to make any kind of guess at his ultimate ceiling.
Thanks for the good explanation, I see what you’re saying.

My internal measure of “who is most likely to win” (which is different than “who has the tools to win”) is to decide as if I was forced to bet a meaningful amount of money on my choice. I would feel better with my money on Powless or Jorgensen (even though they’re better on hilly courses), who have finished 4th and 5th at de Ronde over folks who we haven’t seen in cobbled classics (or in the pro peloton at all).

Happy to be wrong though :)
 
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