Future GT Winner (Edition 2024)

[Red Rick]

Toby I don't think your mind is ready for the fact that he got 3rd behind Mas in 2018.

Wtf I voted for Enricky Mas too

 

[Pinot's goat]

Maybe, but losing to Landa in 2017?

Roglic had no GC attempts in grand tours in 2017.

 

[Ilmaestro99]

Toby I don't think your mind is ready for the fact that he got 3rd behind Mas in 2018.

It's funny how easy it is to forget that Mas was 23, in his second GT and won the final mountain stage to finish 2nd overall, he had Simon Yates on the ropes for a bit.

 

[tobydawq]

Roglic had no GC attempts in grand tours in 2017.

Yes? He had been top 5 on GC in three WT stage races.

But okay, I actually thought he had already won a couple of those in 2017, I can see that was wrong.

 

[tobydawq]

It's funny how easy it is to forget that Mas was 23, in his second GT and won the final mountain stage to finish 2nd overall, he had Simon Yates on the ropes for a bit.

Now you mention it, where is Miguel Ángel López on this poll?

 

[Pinot's goat]

Pogacar, Evenepoel and Vingegaard will more likely to ride La Vuelta in future years so Mas' chances will probably fade. Ayuso, Almeida and Rodriguez winning a Giro is a possibility, next year could have an opening. Hopefully Landa and Mas ride as well, could be a big battle of those who would normally fight for 5th-10th at TDF.

 

[tobydawq]

Yes? He had been top 5 on GC in three WT stage races.

But okay, I actually thought he had already won a couple of those in 2017, I can see that was wrong.

I just checked the 2017 thread, and in fact, none of the options ever went on to win one. And Roglic wasn't one (obviously, hence the previous sentence) nor is he even mentioned once in the thread.

 

[Ilmaestro99]

So Carapax wasn't in the top 3 in 2018?

We are a community of experts

 

[Nick2413]

Pablo Torres.

 

[Red Rick]

Looking back 2018-19 was a weird time for the sport.

From what I remember, before the 2019 vuelta Roglic was seen as a more talented version of a Richie porter type rider? People were not convinced by his ability to last 3 weeks, i think that was one of the main narratives from the 2019 giro. But we forget these things

Anyway he was 28 with one 4th overall as his best GT result

And meanwhile bernal was 21 and winning WT stage races, which was much more unusual six years ago then it is now. They hype around him at that time was insane

He never had a Porte style reputation because Porte imploded all the time even without crashing and IIRC literally only got 3 top 10s in GTs his entire career? Roglic' TdF of 2018 alone set him way ahead in that. He did disappoint in the 2019 Giro but still got 3rd. Basically the doubts were mainly about can he do it for 3 weeks, but IIRC he was the pretty clear favorite going into the 2019 Vuelta.

 

[tobydawq]

So Carapax wasn't in the top 3 in 2018?

We are a community of experts

No, he had ~7% of votes. I think Sepp Kuss might be the only poll option (from 2020) who went on to win one who had a lower percentage (less than 3%). But I could only find threads back to 2017.

At least in 2019, Pogacar had almost 90%. But that's still 10% of people not thinking he had it in him to win one.

 

[Red Rick]

Roglic actually might be too centered around the Tour de France. If Jumbo sends him & Kruijswijk with full forces to the Giro d'Italia though, he's no.1 favorite!

2019 is all your fault man.

 

[Red Rick]

No, he had ~7% of votes. I think Sepp Kuss might be the only poll option (from 2020) who went on to win one who had a lower percentage (less than 3%). But I could only find threads back to 2017.

At least in 2019, Pogacar had almost 90%. But that's still 10% of people not thinking he had it in him to win one.

Are you even a cycling fan if you weren't in the Pogacar vs Evenepoel vs Bernal trenches?

 

[Tim Cahill]

Porte would've won that 2017 Tour is an opinion I'll take to the grave, Froome betrayed him and cost him that Dauphine and he was out for revenge, I could see it in his eyes that wasn't Richie out there man that was Richard.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

There are some new, interesting prospects like Liptowitz and Tiberi but not at the level or Pogacar/Evenepoel/Bernal hype.
Other than them, I also chose Almeida and Ayuso here. I feel that Almeida reached a new level and will show it at the Giro or Vuelta at some point. Not that sure about Ayuso anymore: maybe it's the best for him to leave UAE: no chance to lead the Tour and even Giro/Vuelta have other GC candidates (Almeida and Yates), as this year showed.

Mas needs the stars to align at the Vuelta i.e. Primoz crashing, no Pogi or Vingo etc. It can happen but at this point I'm leaning towards another #2/#3 position there. Maybe he'll have a huge record of GT podiums without any victory. Let's keep our fingers crossed!

 

[Rou]

I voted Lipowitz. Redbull should send him to the Giro next year and if there are no mutants present he'll be cooking. Nordhagen I believe after 2-3 years will be destroying people. Visma's coaching staff is the best.

 

[ice&fire]

Ayuso clearly leading over Almeida will reinforce the guy in his attitude

 

[AmRacer]

Pogacar, Evenepoel and Vingegaard will more likely to ride La Vuelta in future years so Mas' chances will probably fade. Ayuso, Almeida and Rodriguez winning a Giro is a possibility, next year could have an opening. Hopefully Landa and Mas ride as well, could be a big battle of those who would normally fight for 5th-10th at TDF.

Pog needs the Vuelta
Remco needs the Tour and Giro
Jonas needs the Giro and Vuelta

Jonas and Pog will ride a few more Tours

 

[Red Rick]

Anyway, I wanted to vote Ayuso and Almeida. I think they are the 2 main favorites in any GT where the Fantastic 4 don't show up. What bothers me about Almeida though is his Vuelta's have all been bad, so instead of 2 shots a year he's only gotten the one so far.

Overall, I believe people are a bit too quick to assign people as future GT contenders when they make a top 10 at a very young age because I believe people underestimate the gap in level between getting a top 10 or top 5 versus being the actual winner. Right now that is counteracted by the absolute lock 4 riders have on the field though.

Quite a bit is gonna depend on the scheduling of 4 riders not in this poll.

 

[Netserk]

Most likely GT non-winners who has been on a GT podium to win a GT in the future:

1. Adam Yates
2. João Almeida
3. Enric Mas
4. Juan Ayuso
5. Mikel Landa

Most likely GT non-podium havers who has finished a GT in the top-10 to win a GT in the future:

1. Antonio Tiberi
2. Carlos Rodríguez
3. Blobloblo
4. Gee-ro
5. Felix Gall

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Anyway, I wanted to vote Ayuso and Almeida.

It's a multiple options poll. You can choose any of 1024 subsets!

 

[Netserk]

It's a multiple options poll. You can choose any of 1024 subsets!

No, you only have 1023 options.

 

[Red Rick]

It's a multiple options poll. You can choose any of 1024 subsets!

Yes.

But I blundered and can't change my vote.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

No, you only have 1023 options.

I knew someone will point it out!

 

[Netserk]

Derek Gee is the most underrated bet to win the Giro next year.