Future GT Winner (Edition 2024)

[Potomac]

I should have voted Lipowitz too.
i don't see how to edit my vote.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Doesn't that also apply to Arensman, who you brought up as someone who should have been one of the options?

Yes. I don't expect Arensman to ever win a GT either. But i do think he (and Jorgenson) deserves a spot in the list over certain others who are on it now.

If you go back to the 20th Century, there was this guy, Miguel, he did ok even though he raced at 76kg. Of course, the Tour in 95 had over 100km of TT (prologue, TTT, 2xITT). To be fair, I don't think those days will be coming back.

To stay on poll topic, I choose 'none of the above.'

Different times obviously, so not worthwhile to compare weights between eras. While Big Mig might have weighed a lot more than taller riders now, so did the average rider in the peloton. He was also a few centimeters shorter than Jorgenson.

 

[E_F_]

I don't really feel confident about any of the riders in the poll...

edit: I see I'm not the first to make that point in the thread. You can thank me for my fascinating contribution later.

 

[ingsve]

Yes. I don't expect Arensman to ever win a GT either. But i do think he (and Jorgenson) deserves a spot in the list over certain others who are on it now.

What speaks against Arensman for me is that I don't think I've ever seen him accelerate in a mountain. Granted I've only gotten back to watching loads of cycling this year and haven't seen every stage he's ridden but I'm partial to riders who actually try to make things happen rather than those that just try to hang on.

 

[Valv.Piti]

It definitely applies to Arensman if he continues to put on weight during GTs.

Arensman's father is still fuming as we speak!

I think you're very much off here, Logic. The talent of Jorgenson and Arensman is very much not the same - Jorgenson is in another league at basically everything right now and seems flatout a lot more talented. Arensman is a nice rider, but not much more and won't likely get better results than a top-5 in a weak Giro or Vuelta.

 

[proffate]

The other thing Jorgenson has going for him (compared to Thymen) is the trajectory of his career. He could stop getting better tomorrow, but if you can make that call with any certainty you should stop watching cycling and switch to trading stocks.

 

[Netserk]

Adam Yates, Blobloblo, Gee, Gall, Jorgenson > Lipowitz, Skjelmose, O'Connor, Gaudu > Dunbar, Arensman, Sivakov, Rubio

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

What speaks against Arensman for me is that I don't think I've ever seen him accelerate in a mountain. Granted I've only gotten back to watching loads of cycling this year and haven't seen every stage he's ridden but I'm partial to riders who actually try to make things happen rather than those that just try to hang on.

Sure, but the same goes for plenty of others. I think the times Mas has accelerated on a mountain can be counted on one hand, and most of those probably come from this Vuelta. Uijtdebroeks also can't accelerate (yet). Has O'Connor ever done an attack against decent opposition? I can only remember him trying to follow an attack just to blow himself up 200 meters further.

And again, i don't think Arensman will ever win a GT, but he has shown on more than one occasion against better opposition his GT potential, than for instance Skjelmose has, while he is less than 10 months older. He finished 6th in this year's Giro, same as last year, but he is not on the list, while Skjelmose who finished 5th in the Vuelta and failed last year in the TDF when he also wanted to ride a GC, is.

 

[Netserk]

[Arensman] has shown on more than one occasion against better opposition his GT potential, than for instance Skjelmose has

Nope.

Skjelmose's level in the Vuelta this year was at least one tier above the best that Arensman has ever shown in a GT. And the opposition that Skjelmose beat (Gaudu, Lipowitz, Landa, Sivakov) was better than what Arensman beat (Rubio, Hirt, Dunbar, Leknessund, Kämna).

 

[ciranda]

Sure, but the same goes for plenty of others. I think the times Mas has accelerated on a mountain can be counted on one hand, and most of those probably come from this Vuelta. Uijtdebroeks also can't accelerate (yet). Has O'Connor ever done an attack against decent opposition? I can only remember him trying to follow an attack just to blow himself up 200 meters further.

And again, i don't think Arensman will ever win a GT, but he has shown on more than one occasion against better opposition his GT potential, than for instance Skjelmose has, while he is less than 10 months older. He finished 6th in this year's Giro, same as last year, but he is not on the list, while Skjelmose who finished 5th in the Vuelta and failed last year in the TDF when he also wanted to ride a GC, is.

failed is kind of incorrect, he was with the best guys in the first hard stages, got injured from a crash then helped Ciccone instead of trying for some ninth place

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

failed is kind of incorrect, he was with the best guys in the first hard stages, got injured from a crash then helped Ciccone instead of trying for some ninth place

Fair enough.

 

[ingsve]

Sure, but the same goes for plenty of others. I think the times Mas has accelerated on a mountain can be counted on one hand, and most of those probably come from this Vuelta. Uijtdebroeks also can't accelerate (yet). Has O'Connor ever done an attack against decent opposition? I can only remember him trying to follow an attack just to blow himself up 200 meters further.

And again, i don't think Arensman will ever win a GT, but he has shown on more than one occasion against better opposition his GT potential, than for instance Skjelmose has, while he is less than 10 months older. He finished 6th in this year's Giro, same as last year, but he is not on the list, while Skjelmose who finished 5th in the Vuelta and failed last year in the TDF when he also wanted to ride a GC, is.

Ya, I wouldn't vote for Mas or Uijtebroecks to win a GT either. O'Connor at least made it into a break to gain time but ya other than that he didn't really show any initiative.

I always loved the Kelme guys back in the day even though we know what fueled their efforts. Fernando Escartin never won a GT but he was never afraid to attack and make things interesting.

Sort of the same with Pantani really though he did end up winning GTs.

 

[Escarabajo]

I just read that Vingegaard might ride the Giro. That's it, please release the poll and let us vote again. And this time add nobody!
Thanks,

 

[Wyndbrook]

Perhaps there could be a 'none of them' option.

 

[GenericBoonenFan]

Perhaps there could be a 'none of them' option.

True,
I'm also disgusted by the lack of Vino option

 

[solo80k]

Giulio Pellizzari anyone?

 

[KZD]

I voted for Almeida and Ayuso.

Winning Grand Tours has become a very difficult task in an era with Pogačar, Vingegaard, Roglič and Remco around, especially given that some of them are doing two Grand Tours per season.

Almeida and Ayuso are the ones that I believe are closer to these four as they are very good climbers but also quite good time trialists. Plus, in Ayuso's case he is still only 21 so despite training like a pro from a young age he should still have a bigger margin of improvement than most others.

I hesitated a bit in voting for Lipowitz and even though I didn't vote for him, I was really impressed with his performance in the Vuelta and because he started cycling later, he should still get be able to improve a lot so I wouldn't be surprised if he wins a Giro in a few years.

The rest of the riders are very good but I don't see them winning a GT in this era. I do believe though, that riders like Nordhagen and Torres are potential GT winners too.

 

[Netserk]

Nothing to add since last year:

Reminder of the most recent [official] first time Grand Tour winners:

2023 Vuelta -- Sepp Kuss
2022 Vuelta -- Remco Evenepoel
2022 Tour -- Jonas Vingegaard
2022 Giro -- Jai Hindley
2020 Giro -- Tao Geoghegan Hart
2020 Tour -- Tadej Pogačar
2019 Vuelta -- Primož Roglič
2019 Tour -- Egan Bernal
2019 Giro -- Richard Carapaz
2018 Vuelta -- Simon Yates
2018 Tour -- Geraint Thomas
2017 Giro -- Tom Dumoulin
2015 Vuelta -- Fabio Aru
2014 Giro -- Nairo Quintana
2013 Vuelta -- Chris Horner
2013 Tour -- Christopher Froome (the 2011 Vuelta was awarded later)
2012 Tour -- Bradley Wiggins
2012 Giro -- Ryder Hesjedal
2011 Vuelta -- Juan José Cobo (at the time)
2011 Tour -- Cadel Evans
2011 Giro -- Michele Scarponi (was first awarded in 2012, so should probably have been listed over Cobo)
2010 Vuelta -- Vincenzo Nibali
2010 Tour -- Andy Schleck (see note for 2011 Giro)
2009 Vuelta -- Alejandro Valverde
2008 Tour -- Carlos Sastre
2007 Vuelta -- Dennis Menchov (IIRC it was at the time his second GT win, but is currently his first)
2007 Tour -- Alberto Contador
2007 Giro -- Danilo Di Luca
2006 Vuelta -- Alexander Vinokourov
2006 Tour -- Óscar Pereiro (and for a brief period of time Floyd Landis)
2006 Giro -- Ivan Basso

Quite rare for a year to have no new winners, and the last time there were two such years in a row was back in 1973/1974 (in large part thanks to Merckx winning doubles both years).

 

[Netserk]

I think the most likely next new GT winner is:

1. Adam Yates
2. Derek Gee
3. Antonio Tiberi

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Sure, but the same goes for plenty of others. I think the times Mas has accelerated on a mountain can be counted on one hand, and most of those probably come from this Vuelta.

Forgotten previous Vueltas I see.

 

[tobydawq]

I think the most likely next new GT winner is:

1. Adam Yates
2. Derek Gee
3. Antonio Tiberi

I think your infatuation with Gee is reaching unhealthy proportions.

 

[Red Rick]

Forgotten previous Vueltas I see.

Mas doesn't accelerate, he is just pulled into the gravitational field of the next Vuelta winner when the latter attacks.

Scientists call it Spanish relativity

 

[Netserk]

I think your infatuation with Gee is reaching unhealthy proportions.

Israel is cooking, bro. Trust the process, our Gee'ro will fly uphill like Chris Horner.

I very much doubt a new GT winner will win either Tour or Vuelta next year, so the next two Giri will likely see the next one. If none of the Big 4 goes, UAE will start as favourites. I think Almeida and Yates are more likely to go than Ayuso, and I doubt Almeida has a win in him. Which non-winners could challenge? Blobloblo could, but for various reasons, I think both Tiberi and Gee are more likely to step up like several riders did in the Tour this year, and which I think is needed to win the Giro.

 

[Netserk]

Maybe I should've picked Jorgenson ahead of Tiberi? If Vingegaard doesn't go to the Giro, I really don't know who they'll send of Kuss, Blobloblo, Yates and Jorgenson. Plausible that the American duo will go and Jorgenson takes it.

 

[tobydawq]

Israel is cooking, bro. Trust the process, our Gee'ro will fly uphill like Chris Horner.

I very much doubt a new GT winner will win either Tour or Vuelta next year, so the next two Giri will likely see the next one. If none of the Big 4 goes, UAE will start as favourites. I think Almeida and Yates are more likely to go than Ayuso, and I doubt Almeida has a win in him. Which non-winners could challenge? Blobloblo could, but for various reasons, I think both Tiberi and Gee are more likely to step up like several riders did in the Tour this year, and which I think is needed to win the Giro.

I'd think Almeida has a win in him if neither of Vingegaard and Pogacar goes. Unless if Roglic sees sense and abandons the Tour ambition but it seems likely he'll go for it again next year.

I don't think Tiberi has that much potential to be honest, and certainly not Gee.

Maybe Ineos go for the Giro with Carlos Rodríguez to actually try to win something (I assume Thomas will keep to his plan of not going for another GT) and then if he steps up, he could have a good chance. Note here that going to the Vuelta this year was only aimed as an experience to see how he could cope with two Grand Tours a year, there was no expectation of a good GC result.