Future GT Winner (Edition 2024)

[Netserk]

I certainly expect a much better field in the Giro. We could see quite a lot of GT winners at the start: Hindley, Carapaz, Kuss, S. Yates, Thomas, Geoghegan Hart & Bernal. Maybe even Froome?

EDIT: Yikes, I forgot Quintana!

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Mas doesn't accelerate, he is just pulled into the gravitational field of the next Vuelta winner when the latter attacks.

Scientists call it Spanish relativity

That relies on him not trying to make up the time. Just because he wasn't good enough to ever really gain separation and isn't explosive in the slightest doesn't mean he didn't try to win time back on Evenepoel, just that he didn't have what it took to succeed when doing so.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

I certainly expect a much better field in the Giro. We could see quite a lot of GT winners at the start: Hindley, Carapaz, Kuss, S. Yates, Thomas, Geoghegan Hart & Bernal. Maybe even Froome?

EDIT: Yikes, I forgot Quintana!

Hindley and Carapaz still at least have the possibility of trying, mind. In theory I guess Simon Yates could, he's at least closer to where he was at his peak than Quintana or Bernal and at least Bernal has an excuse for not replicating his peak ability, Geogeghan Hart seems to be a male Mikayla Harvey, a complete one-off that looked a million bucks thanks to the different impacts the pandemic had on various riders' training. Kuss needs to prove he's not a Pereiro or Giovannetti first.

Thomas is kind of the exception, in that he's the one that's still putting out podium performances, but he's also long since been employing the "fall backwards as slowly as possible" method exclusively so he simultaneously adds the biggest threat but far less interest than e.g. Carapaz or even Hindley.

 

[SafeBet]

I'd think Almeida has a win in him if neither of Vingegaard and Pogacar goes. Unless if Roglic sees sense and abandons the Tour ambition but it seems likely he'll go for it again next year.

I don't think Tiberi has that much potential to be honest, and certainly not Gee.

Maybe Ineos go for the Giro with Carlos Rodríguez to actually try to win something (I assume Thomas will keep to his plan of not going for another GT) and then if he steps up, he could have a good chance. Note here that going to the Vuelta this year was only aimed as an experience to see how he could cope with two Grand Tours a year, there was no expectation of a good GC result.

I'm not sure I'd take Rodriguez over Tiberi as of now. Ineos needs to step it up a notch to regain my trust, most of their riders have stalled or even regressed.
I agree on Almeida, although his tendency to fall sick doesn't match very well with the Giro, which might be the only GT he'll get to lead for at least a couple of years?

@Netserk is possibly too big on Gee, but Israel is developing young riders like few teams in the WT and there's certainly potential to be untapped in Gee. A bit like Lipowitz, without the Roglic obstacle.

 

[Squire]

[A]t least Bernal has an excuse for not replicating his peak ability, Geogeghan Hart seems to be a male Mikayla Harvey, a complete one-off that looked a million bucks thanks to the different impacts the pandemic had on various riders' training.

Certainly TGH has as good of an excuse for not performing now? He looked like a proper world-beater again before shattering his leg last year.

 

[Red Rick]

Not entirely sure @Netserk hyping Gee isnt just some metacommentary on Geraint Thomas

And Bernal I feel like the current shambles of current Ineos is a bigger issue tham his actual injuries

 

[hayneplane]

Hindley and Carapaz still at least have the possibility of trying, mind. In theory I guess Simon Yates could, he's at least closer to where he was at his peak than Quintana or Bernal and at least Bernal has an excuse for not replicating his peak ability, Geogeghan Hart seems to be a male Mikayla Harvey, a complete one-off that looked a million bucks thanks to the different impacts the pandemic had on various riders' training. Kuss needs to prove he's not a Pereiro or Giovannetti first.

Thomas is kind of the exception, in that he's the one that's still putting out podium performances, but he's also long since been employing the "fall backwards as slowly as possible" method exclusively so he simultaneously adds the biggest threat but far less interest than e.g. Carapaz or even Hindley.

Hindley could certainly win a Giro or Vuelta in the future where the field and parcours align for him.

Thomas said in his latest podcast that he might well retire after next rear and that if so he would most likely want to do the Tour one last time.

Bit unfair on Tao as he was looking really good for a podium finish in Giro 2023 until he slid out on that dodgy patch of road and suffered a serious leg injury that he has yet to fully recover from.

 

[OlavEH]

Ayuso and Tiberi. Ayuso is the only very obvious alternative. The latter is mostly because I could see a Giro with a bang average start list giving not-obvious riders a decent chance for a GT win.

 

[Netserk]

Not entirely sure @Netserk hyping Gee isnt just some metacommentary on Geraint Thomas

And Bernal I feel like the current shambles of current Ineos is a bigger issue tham his actual injuries

I can see it work like that, but it hadn't occurred to me. I just think Gee has a lot of potential and that Israel is serious about him.

 

[Pantani_lives]

1. Ayuso 50
2. Almeida 41
3. Tiberi 17
4. Lipowitz 17
5. Rodríguez 12
6. Skjelmose 11
7. Mas 5

Juan Ayuso has done it! He wins this poll for the third year in a row. I have to admit that I voted for him too, but with less confidence than last year. Is he the most overhyped rider in this forum's history or does he just need a little more time to fulfill the expectations?

The dominance of UAE is impressive, because they also take the second place with Almeida. He makes the top 4 for the fifth year in a row (2-3-4-4-2). Maybe I should have included Adam Yates as well, but he's thirty-two already and I didn't want three riders from the same team.

Tiberi is the next Italian hope, and perhaps Germany will have a player again with Lipowitz.

Thanks to anyone who voted!

 

[Squire]

Do you have any specific criteria for who to put in the poll? I'm guessing the bookies would give lower odds for winning a GT at some point in their career for some big talents who are earlier in their development, like Nordhagen, Del Toro or Widar, than for Skjelmose or Gaudu, for example. But I can also see how there's not enough space to have all the promising U23 climbers in the poll.

 

[Peyroteo94]

1. Ayuso 50
2. Almeida 41
3. Tiberi 17
4. Lipowitz 17
5. Rodríguez 12
6. Skjelmose 11
7. Mas 5

Juan Ayuso has done it! He wins this poll for the third year in a row. I have to admit that I voted for him too, but with less confidence than last year. Is he the most overhyped rider in this forum's history or does he just need a little more time to fulfill the expectations?

The dominance of UAE is impressive, because they also take the second place with Almeida. He makes the top 4 for the fifth year in a row (2-3-4-4-2). Maybe I should have included Adam Yates as well, but he's thirty-two already and I didn't want three riders from the same team.

Tiberi is the next Italian hope, and perhaps Germany will have a player again with Lipowitz.

Thanks to anyone who voted!

Most overrated climber ever. And poll should have a "no one" option

 

[nightowl]

Most overrated climber ever. And poll should have a "no one" option

In fairness to Ayuso, he hasn’t exactly been in a winnable GT position yet in his career. Vuelta 3rd at 20, then went up against Roglic and Vingegaard in the Vuelta at 21, then went as secondary leader to Pogacar this year. So not exactly surprising he hasn’t won a GT yet.

He’s shown the ability to perform for 3 weeks, the ability to do high-level TTs, and flashes of truly elite climbing level - and he’s only just turned 22. He’s kind of the obvious choice in this poll, it just looks worse because he was the obvious choice the last 2 years as well.

 

[Potomac]

In fairness to Ayuso, he hasn’t exactly been in a winnable GT position yet in his career. Vuelta 3rd at 20, then went up against Roglic and Vingegaard in the Vuelta

Kuss beat Roglic and Vingegaard in the Vuelta.
He should get some pointers from him.

 

[Peyroteo94]

In fairness to Ayuso, he hasn’t exactly been in a winnable GT position yet in his career. Vuelta 3rd at 20, then went up against Roglic and Vingegaard in the Vuelta at 21, then went as secondary leader to Pogacar this year. So not exactly surprising he hasn’t won a GT yet.

He’s shown the ability to perform for 3 weeks, the ability to do high-level TTs, and flashes of truly elite climbing level - and he’s only just turned 22. He’s kind of the obvious choice in this poll, it just looks worse because he was the obvious choice the last 2 years as well.

I'm yet to see where he is challenging 2nd tier climbers in the mountains (Remco, Kuss, Yates, etc)

 

[Pantani_lives]

Do you have any specific criteria for who to put in the poll? I'm guessing the bookies would give lower odds for winning a GT at some point in their career for some big talents who are earlier in their development, like Nordhagen, Del Toro or Widar, than for Skjelmose or Gaudu, for example. But I can also see how there's not enough space to have all the promising U23 climbers in the poll.

There are no strict criteria, but I mostly look at those who were in the top 7 of a GT this year. I can also include someone who has won an important one-week race, like Ayuso this year or Skjelmose last year. Sometimes I leave out riders who are already in their thirties, because they're unlikely to improve. Very young riders like Del Toro etc. can be included next year if they show further development. It's always hard to choose.

 

[Netserk]

I think the best criterion for including someone in the poll is how likely they are to be the next first time winner. So while young riders have many more years to land a victory, they are not necessarily the most likely to do so within a year or two. And so, if their most likely years for success is a couple of years down the road, they can be included in a later poll.

I don't think Adam Yates need to improve, he just needs to ride the Giro next year in a similar form to what he achieved for the Tour the past two years to have a better opportunity than some of the poll options will ever have (again).

So if it was just up to me (also somewhat weighting which options others would likely find plausible):

1. Adam Yates
2. João Almeida
3. Carlos Rodríguez
4. Enric Mas
5. Juan Ayuso
6. Antonio Tiberi
7. Matteo Jorgenson
8. Derek Gee
9. Cian Uijtdebroeks
10. Felix Gall

 

[Tonton]

2015 Mikel Landa
2016 Esteban Chaves
2017 Mikel Landa
2018 Egan Bernal (won Tour 2019)
2019 Tadej Pogačar (won Tour 2020)
2020 Remco Evenepoel (won Vuelta 2022)
2021 Jonas Vingegaard (won Tour 2022)
2022 Juan Ayuso
2023 Juan Ayuso
2024 ???

Landa or Ayuso then? I'm surprised that Mas never got the top vote.

Castrillo, I hope. He was riding like he didn't give a crap, Having fun on a bike. The kind of rider that I like. Tiberi for Italy...

Joao can be a superdom for Pog on one GT and have one shot per year. Can he make the best of it?

I was a couple of hours late for the poll, but that's my view,. No French revival at this time, Sorry....

 

[nightowl]

Kuss beat Roglic and Vingegaard in the Vuelta.
He should get some pointers from him.

Should’ve gotten in the break at the Tour and got twitter to force Pogacar to gift it to him