Future GT Winner

[Pantani_lives]

For the third consecutive year I'm going to conduct this poll. Which rider(s) will win the Giro, the Tour or the Vuelta in the future? You have more than one vote. If you want to suggest other names (Dutch riders, König...) you can do so in the forum.

In 2012 Chris Froome won this poll; in 2013 Nairo Quintana. Remarkably both predictions came true within less than a year.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

I voted Aru, Majka and Pinot.

Aru is self explanatory, the most talented of the bunch. I would be very surprised if he didn't end up with some GT wins.

Majka probably isn't as talented as Bardet or Pinot, but he has the advantage that he probably won't focus everything on the Tour. I think he could win the Giro or Vuelta at some point.

Pinot is very talented and if we go by talent alone he should be able to win at least one GT in his career. However, he might be too focused on the Tour and eventually end up with a bunch of podiums at best. I give him the benefit of the doubt, though.

As for the others: I really like Bardet and I hope he wins a GT at some point, but I fear that he will be too focused on the Tour and I don't think he'll be strong enough to win one of these. Peraud? No chance. Rodriguez? No chance. Talansky? I don't think he'll ever be good enough in the mountains and the same goes for Van Garderen. Uran? Who knows, he might be able to grab a Giro win ala Hesjedal's 2012 win, but I don't rate him that high.

Where's Betancur though?

Other riders worth mentioning: Yates and Formolo.

 

[grizzlee]

I voted MAJKA and ARU, to be honest i dont think any of the rest have a chance at the moment, Bardet and Pinot maybe in a few years, but not any time soon.

 

[Pantani_lives]

I voted Aru, Majka and Pinot.

Aru is self explanatory, the most talented of the bunch. I would be very surprised if he didn't end up with some GT wins.

Majka probably isn't as talented as Bardet or Pinot, but he has the advantage that he probably won't focus everything on the Tour. I think he could win the Giro or Vuelta at some point.

Pinot is very talented and if we go by talent alone he should be able to win at least one GT in his career. However, he might be too focused on the Tour and eventually end up with a bunch of podiums at best. I give him the benefit of the doubt, though.

As for the others: I really like Bardet and I hope he wins a GT at some point, but I fear that he will be too focused on the Tour and I don't think he'll be strong enough to win one of these. Peraud? No chance. Rodriguez? No chance. Talansky? I don't think he'll ever be good enough in the mountains and the same goes for Van Garderen. Uran? Who knows, he might be able to grab a Giro win ala Hesjedal's 2012 win, but I don't rate him that high.

I voted Aru and Majka myself. Pinot might win the Tour in a year or five, when the current leaders are too old.

Where's Betancur though?

And he's quite hard to overlook these days.

 

[Eshnar]

Aru surely, because he's probably the most talented of the lot AND will most likely target the Giro early, so he'll win it eventually.

Then I also voted Majka, but I'm not so sure about him.

 

[Jagartrott]

I voted MAJKA and ARU, to be honest i dont think any of the rest have a chance at the moment, Bardet and Pinot maybe in a few years, but not any time soon.

Why Majka over Pinot?
I see no reason whatsoever for this. Pinot finished third in the biggest of the three GT, Majka 6th and 7th at the Giro, and he's already 25.

 

[Eshnar]

Why Majka over Pinot?
I see no reason whatsoever for this. Pinot finished third in the biggest of the three GT, Majka 6th and 7th at the Giro, and he's already 25.

because he should change GT, but being French it won't be so easy to do.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

I hope Bardet, as I like him the most.
But Majka and Aru's focus on the Giro will give them the edge I think.
Van Garderen could get even better over the next few seasons, but hes up against it in the tour.

The Vuelta will likely throw up a surprise winner near term, but who?
Wellens perhaps, but he might replace JVDB as tour candidate already from next year.

 

[BeagRigh]

+1 to everything Hugo Koblet has said. Sums up my thoughts

 

[pablohidalgo7]

Wilco kelderman deserves a mention here, he is only 23, bardet is 24 and he is nit better than wilco, talansky is 26 and he only has a 7th in the vuelta and a top 10 in the tour due to the breakways.

 

[Jagartrott]

Wilco kelderman deserves a mention here, he is only 23, bardet is 24 and he is nit better than wilco, talansky is 26 and he only has a 7th in the vuelta and a top 10 in the tour due to the breakways.

Kelderman definitely also deserves a mention, but he's only 4 months younger than Bardet. Perhaps there is some skepticism as Dutch riders are known to peak early and have stalled development (or even regression) after 23-24. Hopefully Kelderman is different.

 

[grizzlee]

Why Majka over Pinot?
I see no reason whatsoever for this. Pinot finished third in the biggest of the three GT, Majka 6th and 7th at the Giro, and he's already 25.

Pinot finished 3rd in a very reduced and not very high quality field, Im not taking anything away from his result it was really great and he deserved it.

Majka got sick at end of Giro, he was fighting for a podium up untill then. Majkas Giro form would have podiumed in the tour this year at the expence of pinot in my opinion.

 

[Jagartrott]

Well, this Vuelta had a high quality field according to many, but Valverde was 3rd in that race, and 4th in the Tour.

 

[Akuryo]

Aru, Pinot and maybe even Uran. Did not vote for Majka though, cause I don't really get the hype. He won two stages out of breakaways where no real other climber was involved. And he was not a GC-threat at that time. After that he took Tour de Pologne, which also had almost no other climbers at the startline. Yes, those stages/races are in his palmares, but they don't say much about the circumstances!

 

[TourOfSardinia]

You forgot Davide Formolo

Following in Aru's wing flaps.

 

[Pantani_lives]

Did not vote for Majka though, cause I don't really get the hype. He won two stages out of breakaways where no real other climber was involved.

When Pinot, Valverde and Péraud were riding for their podium spots they didn't take back time on Majka. I think Majka was the second best climber in the Tour (behind Nibali).

 

[Pentacycle]

You forgot Davide Formolo

Following in Aru's wing flaps.

Let him ride a GT first, like all the options in this poll have.

 

[Buffalo Soldier]

Uran might be the next Sastre. Many many top 10s and who knows, when all the pieces fit, even win one.

 

[Netserk]

To get some perspective, here's a list of the most recent first-time GT winners:

Quintana - Giro '14
Horner - Vuelta '13
Froome - Tour '13
Wiggins - Tour '12
Hesjedal - Giro '12
Cobo - Vuelta '11
Evans - Tour '11
Nibali - Vuelta '10
Valverde - Vuelta '09
Sastre - Tour '08
Menchov - Vuelta '07
Contador - Tour '07
Di Luca - Giro '07
Vino - Vuelta '06
Landis - Tour '06
Basso - Giro '06

So with time I think several of today's (young) contenders will take the final step and win one of the big ones.

 

[pablohidalgo7]

Kelderman definitely also deserves a mention, but he's only 4 months younger than Bardet. Perhaps there is some skepticism as Dutch riders are known to peak early and have stalled development (or even regression) after 23-24. Hopefully Kelderman is different.

Yes i know, but no all the dutch riders are the same, also frenchman riders usually fail in the tour because of the pressure, but this year we have seen that like the dutchies not all the frenchman iders are equals.

 

[cineteq]

Finally a good poll!
Went with Majka, Uran and Talansky. Unless something changes, I don't see Aru winning a GT in the next 2 years.

Kelderman definitely also deserves a mention, but he's only 4 months younger than Bardet.

Lots of potential on Kelderman, don't get why he was left out while Peraud was included.

 

[Pantani_lives]

Finally a good poll!
Went with Majka, Uran and Talansky. Unless something changes, I don't see Aru winning a GT in the next 2 years.

Thanks. Aru has a contract with Astana until the end of 2015, so he will probably have to work for Nibali next year in both the Giro and the Tour. However there are rumors that Team Sky wants to buy off his contract. He'll certainly be a big contender for at least the Giro in the future.

Lots of potential on Kelderman, don't get why he was left out while Peraud was included.

I've considered Kelderman, certainly a talent, but after all he hasn't made a top ten yet. I know Péraud is unlikely to improve at his age, but I could hardly leave out the No. 2 of the Tour.

 

[Netserk]

I've considered Kelderman, certainly a talent, but after all he hasn't made a top ten yet. I know Péraud is unlikely to improve at his age, but I could hardly leave out the No. 2 of the Tour.

http://www.cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=26055

 

[cineteq]

I've considered Kelderman, certainly a talent, but after all he hasn't made a top ten yet. I know Péraud is unlikely to improve at his age, but I could hardly leave out the No. 2 of the Tour.

Come on, the kid has so much potential regardless. Peraud had his Cobo moment, that's it for him. Cheers!

 

[Red Rick]

To get some perspective, here's a list of the most recent first-time GT winners:

Quintana - Giro '14
Horner - Vuelta '13
Froome - Tour '13
Wiggins - Tour '12
Hesjedal - Giro '12
Cobo - Vuelta '11
Evans - Tour '11
Nibali - Vuelta '10
Valverde - Vuelta '09
Sastre - Tour '08
Menchov - Vuelta '07
Contador - Tour '07
Di Luca - Giro '07
Vino - Vuelta '06
Landis - Tour '06
Basso - Giro '06

So with time I think several of today's (young) contenders will take the final step and win one of the big ones.

Might be interesting if you add the year of birth and age ath the time they won it