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Future GT Winner

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Who will win a Grand Tour?

  • Tom Dumoulin

    Votes: 63 39.9%

  • Thibaut Pinot

    Votes: 26 16.5%

  • Mikel Landa

    Votes: 94 59.5%

  • Rafal Majka

    Votes: 56 35.4%

  • Robert Gesink

    Votes: 1 0.6%

  • Romain Bardet

    Votes: 20 12.7%

  • Tejay van Garderen

    Votes: 14 8.9%

  • Andrey Amador

    Votes: 2 1.3%

  • Esteban Chaves

    Votes: 15 9.5%

  • Joaquim Rodríguez

    Votes: 5 3.2%
  • Total voters
    158
Pantani_lives

Pantani_lives

May 3, 2010
4,279
3,815
21,180
For the fourth year in a row I would like to conduct a poll on the question, "Who will win a Grand Tour in the future?" The previous three polls gave a remarkable result. Each time the winner of the poll went on to win a GT the next year: Froome (Tour 2013), Quintana (Giro 2014) and Aru (Vuelta 2015). I think it will be hard to continue this series, because there's no guarantee that there will be a new name next year, but it doesn't have to happen in 2016.

You have more than one vote. Vote for anyone you expect to win a GT at some point in his career.

If you have riders in mind who aren't in the poll you can mention them in the forum.

These are the threads from the past three years:
2012
2013
2014
 
Sciocco

Sciocco

Jan 24, 2012
1,169
0
0
Chaves, Majka, Landa, Bardet. 1-2 each.

Considered Pinot, but he doesn't have that winning quality.
 
42x16ss

42x16ss

May 23, 2009
10,240
1,426
25,680
Majka, Chaves and Pinot for me. Van Garderen just doesn't have the killer instinct, Gesink too many troubles, Rodriguez too old and keeps finding ways to lose come crunch time.

Dumoulin and Bardet may have a chance in the future but not yet.
 
Jspear

Jspear

Feb 23, 2014
8,827
254
17,880
Landa and Majka will the soonest imo. Perhaps Landa could next year (say the Vuelta.)
Besides Landa I don't think any of these riders will win a gt until at least 2017. I think AC, Froome, Nibbes, Quintana and Aru will take the gt's next year.
 
S

skidmark

Mar 13, 2009
3,820
2,152
16,680
I voted for Majka and Dumoulin, as I think they are the most likely. And, the most likely to win the TdF in the future... Majka himself said that he's best suited to the Tour, and he's learned to ride that boring, defensive style that everybody hates but wins GTs. He has learned the art of calculation. Dumoulin has to be heartened by this Vuelta despite the conclusion, and it was incredible to see him ride such a killer TT after two hard weeks in the unknown limits of his physiology. He's ready for this. A Tour with less steep climbs and a decent size TT should suit him well - although I guess his vulnerability in the multi-mountain stages is a danger. But honestly, if he had even two good teammates - which he will now that he's shown he's a contender - he would have closed that 20 seconds and won the Vuelta, and wouldn't be able to be on this poll. Neither of these guys is going to win next year, though. I think one or both of them will be on the TdF podium by 2018.

I consider Chaves and Landa in the next tier, riders who are going to be contenders for the next decade and fearsome climbers, but they're a bit more of a gamble than the two previously mentioned because they are less consistent all around. I think it's entirely feasible that all four of these guys will win a GT before their careers are over. And Pinot... it's hard to tell with Pinot. I think all the tools are there, but something deep inside me just doubts it.

The other guys, nope. I had a glimmer of thinking that Purito could win this Vuelta, but he's 36 and I firmly believe this was his last chance. He did great, only beaten by an ascendant youngster who had rested since the Giro, but that's just it. He's always the bridesmaid, just like Valv in GTs save for 2009 when all the cards fell the right way. Purito has already played his best hand and lost.
 
SergeDeM

SergeDeM

Aug 9, 2009
505
0
0
Re:

Escarabajo said:
I actually believe that Purito will win a GT. La Vuelta is within his grasp if he focus on it. He will catch most of the big contenders a bit tired from the Tour.
Click to expand...
Loyal to the end, but wrong as well ;)

I voted Landa, and would've voted Pinot if he wasn't french and thus forced to do the Tour every time.
 
Velolover2

Velolover2

Apr 12, 2015
7,033
1,172
20,680
Tom Dumoulin is the scariest. I think he could win the Tour twice. He is still improving. Think about a 3 kg lighter version of him who has trained in the mountains and with a better team. Would be a beast. I think he is the rider with the best chance of dethroning Froome. Quintana is not powerful enough, but Tom is.

Landa should win a GT for sure. He is the favorite for the Giro next year. The other contenders would hope that he does some horrible TTs.

Pinot has a good chance too if he would focus on the Giro or Vuelta instead of the Tour. Same with Majka.

But Gesink, wtf? Why are we still mentioning him? He wouldn't even win a WT race. Him, Tejay and Mollema are non-winners. Gesink is an early bloomer. They tend to age a lot of worse than late bloomers like Froome. Along with Cunego, he is mentally one of the oldest rider in the peloton.

Purito has said that he would continue until he is 39 and he can still get a couple of podiums, but winning will be hard when you can't TT. And he is often inattentive and will find a way to lose. He should only focus on the Giro and Vuelta for 2016 and 2017.

Chaves is more of a pure climber IMO. He wouldn't win a GT, but there are big mountain stages and polka dots to come.
 
J

JRTK73

Jul 6, 2014
107
0
0
You can count out the French riders. They would have a chance if they focused on o the other races but none of them are good enough to win le tour. I went for Majka and Landa. Tom won't get another chance so good, I think.
 
M

malakassis

Jun 29, 2015
173
0
0
Pantani_lives said:
For the fourth year in a row I would like to conduct a poll on the question, "Who will win a Grand Tour in the future?" The previous three polls gave a remarkable result. Each time the winner of the poll went on to win a GT the next year: Froome (Tour 2013), Quintana (Giro 2014) and Aru (Vuelta 2015). I think it will be hard to continue this series, because there's no guarantee that there will be a new name next year, but it doesn't have to happen in 2016.

You have more than one vote. Vote for anyone you expect to win a GT at some point in his career.

If you have riders in mind who aren't in the poll you can mention them in the forum.

These are the threads from the past three years:
2012
2013
2014
Click to expand...

this is amazing. the wisdom of the crowds rules!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds
 
Valv.Piti

Valv.Piti

Aug 3, 2015
21,967
9,363
28,180
I really like Bardet as a rider, but he probably wont be anything but a glorified Rolland, focusing on the Tour, getting a few stages here and there, maybe throw some polka dots in there and a couple of top-5's. Im good with him doing the spring schedule + Tour since it would be boring if anyone else not standing a chance of winning the Tour would do Giro-Vuelta. The same can be said about Pinot, more or less, apart from the fact that I like him.

TJ? Still completely within his grasp. He has improved his climbing a lot. Say if he fails again in the Tour, with LRP on the team in Tour, he will line up in the Giro 2017 with good chances of winning. I could see that happening.

Dumoulin is another beast, but from what I have heard so far, Rio is still his main goal. But I think he would lie if he hasnt thought about winning the Tour de France, by far the biggest bike race on the planet. Everyone with such a showing would think that. He wont win anything next year, but after Rio, I could see some GT specialization inc.

Landa is by far, ok along with Chaves, the rider I like the most of those. I think whoever goes from Astana should be the favorite on odds since they have done it so many times before, but lets wait and see the route and the complete lineup. Cheering for him in 2016.

I COULD see Chaves winning the Giro in a relatively odd year (think less odd than Hesjedal) where Aru, Quintana and Majka would do the Tour which is plausible in 2 years or so. He actually rode a very decent ITT and he seemed to have recuperated very well actually throughout the 3 weeks. He should focus on transforming that 1st week superhuman into the ladder part of the race.

Amador is kinda a joke. No way he would ever do better than he did this year. I would like it to happen, but......
 
Velolover2

Velolover2

Apr 12, 2015
7,033
1,172
20,680
I still not get why Tejay wouldn't try to ride the Giro which he has a WAY better chance of winning.

Just let Porte fight against Froome. He always has his super-peak in the Tour.

Tejay: Oman, T-A, Pais Vasco, Trentino, Giro, Poland, Vuelta.
Porte: Down Under, Algarve, Paris-Nice, Catalunya, Dauphine, Tour.
 
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