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I did read your whole post, but I usually focus my disagreement on its highest level. My original post was about where O'Connor ranks (based on abilities), and it seems that your disagreement with that is on the fundamental level of how to do a ranking.
I agree with you on rating their abilities and not their ranking in GC. But then you also have to take into account context. It was O'Connor's second GT this year. Not a lot of riders are able to finish top 5 both times. While he got time for free in the Vuelta, he did not in the Giro IIRC. My point being that after riding the Giro all out for GC, he was still able to defend his GC in the Vuelta. Check recent results of riders going to the Giro for GC and then check their Vuelta results. Hindley won the Giro and was a complete non-factor in the Vuelta that same year. Comparing his efforts to Skjelmose who made the Vuelta his sole season goal, is not correct imho.
So if O'Connor had abandoned the Giro in the first week with no lingering effect, didn't get hampered quite as much by the heat in the first four stages of the Vuelta and subsequently went in no breakaways, but rode for GC in the manner that he did in the Giro, you think he'd have been more likely to beat Skjelmose in GC than not? That's how I interpret your post in my framework.
If he had not gone to the Giro, and focussed on the Vuelta from the beginning, go for GC, not for breaks, then i would not put any money on Skjelmose finishing ahead. I believe riding the Giro beforehand is a bigger factor than you make it out to be or believe to be. Look at riders like Almeida, Hindley, Carapaz... in recent years, who went for GC in the Giro, and then also went for the Vuelta.
Yes, that true. But it isn't one of the big one week races.
Hindley and Carapaz also failed in their first GT this year, despite not riding the Giro beforehand. So the trend you see is partly down to a general variability in hitting your targets in good form and avoiding bad luck. After succeeding in the Giro, it's more salient when they fail in the Vuelta, even if the underlying chance was the same for both GTs. I think that statistical effect matters as much as the causal impact the Giro prep has on the Vuelta prep.
Five, true! I meant within that six year period in which he has won five different one-week World Tour races - but actually seven, not six, total. Apparently I'm bad at counting, haha.
Yeah, that's true. I should have made it clear that I meant the big ones that actually matter.
Almeida is a better GC rider and was performing better than Mas till he got sick on climbs that didn’t suit him.Sure, if you say so..
No. Rogla, Eetvelt and Mas were the strongest riders on the stage 4 uphill finish.
Almeida came back on a climb that didn’t suit him to finish third. When we had some on here before the stage stating it didn’t suit his characteristics and if he got dropped he wasn’t coming back, when he started yo-yoing that he will lose some time, and then had enough strength to finish third still. Only way Mas was beating Almeida was if Almeida got sick, and he did.
I really like this ranking, except that I would rank Ayuso behind Mas and put Carapaz in 7th place.
Even disregarding O'Connor's Vuelta, he still finished 4th in the Giro, which by all accounts still should be rated higher than Skjelmose's 5th spot in the Vuelta.
If you disregard O’Connors time gain in the Vuelta, then you are comparing 4th in the Giro with 4th in the Vuelta and it’s not self evident which of them rates higher in terms of power ranking. If Giro was ridden in the same way Vuelta was where the race exploded almost every mountain stage, who knows if BOC still gets 4th… Giro was ridden conservatively by anyone but Pog.
If you wanna play it like that, even without his timegain in the Vuelta, he still finishes in the top 10. And if you want to address the pace in the Vuelta, then surely that tells you something about the effort he had to put in to defend his lead.
I don't want to play anything, I'm just pointing out the comparison between Vuelta and the Giro tells you very little about power ranking because Vuelta was ridden way harder than the Giro, which was basically a stalemate for podium spots. I personally rate BOC above Skjelmose in GC power ranking. Yes he gained time because they let him but he also lost more than he would optimally lose had he not gone all-in a couple of times when defending the red jersey...
Almeida got dropped on the only climb they raced before he got sick, and because the three strongest then stalled and Almeida made it back again, you use that sole result as argument that Almeida was performing better than Mas. I just don't see it. Was Landa also performing better than Mas on that stage (if it could be argued that the climb didn't suit him)?
Yes, with regards to the narrow claim of who performed better on the stage 4 MTF, Van Eetvelt should be ranked above Almeida.
"Climbs that didn't suit him" = Pico Villuercas.
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