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Giro 2016 third week expectations

Who will win the Giro?

  • Steven Kruijswijk

    Votes: 35 62.5%
  • Esteban Chaves

    Votes: 6 10.7%
  • Vincenzo Nibali

    Votes: 6 10.7%
  • Alejandro Valverde

    Votes: 4 7.1%
  • Rafal Majka

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Ilnur Zakarin

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Andrey Amador

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Bob Jungels

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Pippo Pozzato

    Votes: 5 8.9%
  • Other/Vino

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    56
  • Poll closed .
What do you think will happen?
I see some posters are very optimistic about the chances of entertainig stages. I am not.

Kruijswijk only needs to follow.
Chaves could be satisfied with a podium spot.
Nibali looked very bad at the end of the second week and Valverde, aiming at the podium, will probably just follow wheels and take advantage in case Nibali blows after an attack from afar.
Zak, Amador, Jungels, Siutsou and Fuglsang are happy with a top10 placement.
Uran and Pozzovivo too far back to even be a threat.
And Majka is Majka.

Astana and (to a lesser extent) Movistar have the numbers, but what can they realistically do?
 
SafeBet said:
What do you think will happen?
Kruijswijk, having no real support from his team in the high mountains, riding 100% defensively, responding only to the attacks of the Big Trio: Chaves, Nibali and Valverde.
Those three (Chaves/Nibbs/Valverde) attacking in a "1-2-3" mode either on the ultimate "real" climb of the day (Fai de Paganella on Tuesday, Pinerolo on Thursday) or from the very beginning of the stage (Friday/Saturday).
Majka and Zakarin following those three, figting for the podium, most probably without success.
Amador - I have no clue.
Pozzovivo and/or Uran trying to get a stage win at all cost.
 
I am really hoping Kruijswijk will take it home. Of course Movistar and Astana have the stronger teams but they will also counter each other to fight for the minor podium spots plus other riders want to defend their own position.
 
Mar 14, 2016
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Hoping for Kruiswijk, but it'll be tough. His team is crap, Nibali did not look very bad at the end of the second week (he was better than anyone bar Chaves and Kruiswijk on Saturday, and he would've finished within 1'30" on Sunday without the mechanical), and Valverde lost time but is still close enough to give LottoNL a fright if Movistar decide to pull out the big guns.

So yeah, Kruijswijk looks like the favourite, but it's not over by any means.
 
Re:

CheckMyPecs said:
Hoping for Kruiswijk, but it'll be tough. His team is crap, Nibali did not look very bad at the end of the second week (he was better than anyone bar Chaves and Kruiswijk on Saturday, and he would've finished within 1'30" on Sunday without the mechanical)
That time would still rank as the worst among all contenders.
 
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Re: Re:

SafeBet said:
CheckMyPecs said:
Hoping for Kruiswijk, but it'll be tough. His team is crap, Nibali did not look very bad at the end of the second week (he was better than anyone bar Chaves and Kruiswijk on Saturday, and he would've finished within 1'30" on Sunday without the mechanical)
That time would still rank as the worst among all contenders.
Sure, but in no way does it mean Nibali looked "very bad" at the end of the second week, especially with his solid performance the day before.
 
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SafeBet said:
What do you think will happen?

1. K-Weak will follow wheels.
2. Nibbles will pop a little after a serious attack.
3. Valverde will pop hard, because he's just not good enough this time.
4. Chavez will attack with K-Weak on his wheel and take a stage
5. Zakarin will fight against Majka.
6. Jungels will follow Valverde's wheel.
7. Amador will pop harder than Valverde.
8. Uran will crash and DNS next day.
9. Pozzovivo will take a stage.

Final GC:

1. Krujswijk
2. Chavez +1'40"
3. Nibbles +4'00"
4. Zakarin +4'25"
5. Majka +5'00"
6. Valverde +6'30"
7. Pozzovivo +7'00"
8. Jungels +8'00"
9. Amador +9'40"
10. Siutsou +11'00"
 
Re: Re:

CheckMyPecs said:
SafeBet said:
CheckMyPecs said:
Hoping for Kruiswijk, but it'll be tough. His team is crap, Nibali did not look very bad at the end of the second week (he was better than anyone bar Chaves and Kruiswijk on Saturday, and he would've finished within 1'30" on Sunday without the mechanical)
That time would still rank as the worst among all contenders.
Sure, but in no way does it mean Nibali looked "very bad" at the end of the second week, especially with his solid performance the day before.

Being the worst among all contenders and losing a minute and a half over a 10.8km climb isn't very bad?
 
Re: Re:

PremierAndrew said:
CheckMyPecs said:
SafeBet said:
CheckMyPecs said:
Hoping for Kruiswijk, but it'll be tough. His team is crap, Nibali did not look very bad at the end of the second week (he was better than anyone bar Chaves and Kruiswijk on Saturday, and he would've finished within 1'30" on Sunday without the mechanical)
That time would still rank as the worst among all contenders.
Sure, but in no way does it mean Nibali looked "very bad" at the end of the second week, especially with his solid performance the day before.

Being the worst among all contenders and losing a minute and a half over a 10.8km climb isn't very bad?
And MTTs should be Nibbles bread and butter.
 
I do not think Chavez will attack. He should be content with his place and he will protect it against Nibali and the likes. He should react even faster then Kruijswijk on any such attack.
Crushweak will easily defend unless he will blow w/o particular reason.
 
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Re: Re:

PremierAndrew said:
Being the worst among all contenders and losing a minute and a half over a 10.8km climb isn't very bad?
It was bad, but not particularly so, especially when the previous day he put time into everyone bar Kruiswijk and Chaves.

By OP's standards, everyone except these two was "very bad".
 
Re: Re:

CheckMyPecs said:
PremierAndrew said:
Being the worst among all contenders and losing a minute and a half over a 10.8km climb isn't very bad?
It was bad, but not particularly so, especially when the previous day he put time into everyone bar Kruiswijk and Chaves.

By OP's standards, everyone except these two was "very bad".

Not everyone is supposed to be the favourite for the Giro, and not everyone is supposed to be the best TTist of the favourites. Sure, a mountain TT is more about climbing and less about ability on the flat, but there were still flat sections too