Giro 2017, stage 10: Foligno - Montefalco 39,8km (ITT)

Eshnar said:
STAGE 10: Foligno – Montefalco 39.8 km ITT

START TIME: TBD

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Technical Overview:
The first ITT of the race comes the latest in recent times, with the GC presumably already shaped up by two very serious MTFs, and after a rest day. With a length just short of 40 km and a flattish terrain, this ITT is clearly good for specialists, more than last year's one, although not as good as other Giro TTs like the ones of 2013 and 2015. The route is very conveniently divided in 3 sections by 2 intermediates. The first section, 9.8 km long, is totally flat, on long and wide roads, absolutely perfect for specialists. The second section instead goes up the hills, featuring some twisty roads and rolling terrain, the hardest part being the road towards Madonna delle Grazie, 5 km always with easy ramps (never above 5%) and respites. The third section is again similar to the first in terms of mostly straight roads, but the terrain is not as flat, with some gentle uphill ramps (see last kms profile) that will lead every rider to Montefalco.

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What to expect:
As I said, a TT for specialists. Serious gaps. 50-55 minutes of effort (but I'm always terrible at predicting TT times).

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A rolling TT with lot's of hills and near 40km. Can't spell Dumoulin more than that. If he pulls anything like last years TDF ITT it will be a total massacre.

Not comparable to the 10km flat, straight line power drag in the Tirreno.
 
Good looking time trial.
Can't see huge gaps between the top GC riders at the moment.
A minute or so between Dumoulin and Quintana. Pinot and Mollema somewhere between, Nibali closer to Quintana than Pinot,..
 
Re:

Poursuivant said:
Similar lengths at Vuelta 2015 saw Dumoulin take 1:33 on Quintana.
Quintana is pretty underrated as a TT'er.
Yeah, and last year in the tdf he lost 3 minutes on Dumoulin in a comparable ITT. I just hope Dumourain hasn't lost his TT strength and takes as much time on Quintana as possible. Quintana already leading the gc before the 3rd week would be absolutely horrible for the race.
 
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Gigs_98 said:
Poursuivant said:
Similar lengths at Vuelta 2015 saw Dumoulin take 1:33 on Quintana.
Quintana is pretty underrated as a TT'er.
Yeah, and last year in the tdf he lost 3 minutes on Dumoulin in a comparable ITT. I just hope Dumourain hasn't lost his TT strength and takes as much time on Quintana as possible. Quintana already leading the gc before the 3rd week would be absolutely horrible for the race.
On the bright side though, it might mean we can still have something of a GC battle at the Tour.
 
Re: Re:

Gigs_98 said:
Poursuivant said:
Similar lengths at Vuelta 2015 saw Dumoulin take 1:33 on Quintana.
Quintana is pretty underrated as a TT'er.
Yeah, and last year in the tdf he lost 3 minutes on Dumoulin in a comparable ITT. I just hope Dumourain hasn't lost his TT strength and takes as much time on Quintana as possible. Quintana already leading the gc before the 3rd week would be absolutely horrible for the race.
Yeah well Dumoulin wasn't riding GC in that Tour and Quintana was pretty garbage honestly.

I think 2015 Vuelta TT is a better example. I say around 2 minutes. 3 minutes would be great for the race as it means that Dumoulin most likely will have about 1-2 minutes on Quintana going into double Stilfserjoch!
 
Re:

sir fly said:
Good looking time trial.
Can't see huge gaps between the top GC riders at the moment.
A minute or so between Dumoulin and Quintana. Pinot and Mollema somewhere between, Nibali closer to Quintana than Pinot,..
Think it will be more (maybe 1.30 to 1.45), but I agree, that Mollema and Pinot are about equal in a time trial like this, and they will likely lose 40-50 seconds to Dumoulin. Nibali should be close to those two.
 
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Cance > TheRest said:
sir fly said:
Good looking time trial.
Can't see huge gaps between the top GC riders at the moment.
A minute or so between Dumoulin and Quintana. Pinot and Mollema somewhere between, Nibali closer to Quintana than Pinot,..
Think it will be more (maybe 1.30 to 1.45), but I agree, that Mollema and Pinot are about equal in a time trial like this, and they will likely lose 40-50 seconds to Dumoulin. Nibali should be close to those two.
Yes, 1:30 is a better breaking point.
 
Re:

killswitch said:
Dumoulin, Tobias Ludvigsson, Lulu, Kangert, G Thomas (if he's recovered), Jungels, Kiriyenka, Campenaerts, Pinot to make the top 10 in no particular order.

Except maybe for Sanchez i'd say it's a pretty realistic prediction !
Mollema not too far away if he's on a great day.

@sir fly : yeah exactly. After what happened to Sky GC hopes, he'd be a decent pick.

Although still a possibilitt: if G recovers mentally and physically from that crash, he is a great rouleur and seemed to be in a good shape. Time will tell if he is gonna keep doing his max to reach a potential top5. Again, crashes and failures might still happen so its mainly a strategic choice wether to keep going or saving energy for the Dawg Tour classic showdown !