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Giro d'Italia 2018: Stage 20: Susa - Cervinia, 214 KM

Eshnar said:
STAGE 20: Susa – Cervinia 214

May 26th

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Technical Overview:
Probably the queen stage. I say “probably” because the initial flat 130 km don't look fit for a classic queen stage, admittedly. If this had a decent climb at the beginning no one would doubt its royalty. In any case, the rest of the stage is great, and as a design it's only surpassed by the Sappada stage, which does not qualify as queen stage because of its lack of top category climbs. So let's get to it. We start in Susa, at the foot of the Colle delle Finestre and head north-east all the way to the Aosta valley. After 130 km more or less flat, the peloton will hit a combo of 3 major climbs with little to no rest in between. The first one is new to the Giro but not to cycling fans, as it is pretty famous. Col Tsecore (GPM1, 16 km at 7.7%), also known as Zuccore, is a climb I always wanted to see in the Giro. It features 3 km at 11.4% near the top that would be perfect for an attack, if they weren't at 70 km to go... But even so, the climb should do a lot of damage. The descent will bring the riders down to the town of St.Vincent, and after 7 km of valley they will start the second climb, Col St.Pantaleon (GPM1, 16.5 at 7.2%), much more regular than the Tsecore, being always between 7-8% besides a couple of short respites. Here we follow the same route as the 1997 and 2015 Giros. After the descent, the last climb of this edition is the road to Cervinia (GPM1, 18.2 km at 5.3%), the town at the foot of Monte Cervino (aka Matterhorn), which is quite an irregular climb, never too hard and with many false flat sections. This fits the golden rule of (good) stage design: first a hard climb, then an easy one. Here we have three climbs in the right order, so if anyone needs time and has some energy left, there's plenty of room to do whatever needed. Especially considering this is the last chance for everyone.

Final km
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The Climbs:
Col Tsecore (GPM1, 16 km at 7.7%)
Never used before in the Giro, this climbstarts with 11 km always between 5-8%, before ramping up for a section of 3 km at 11.4% and finally closing with 2 km at 8.1%. A very tough climb.
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Col de St.Pantaleon (GPM1, 16.5 at 7.2%)
Without having super-steep ramps, this is a very consistent climb, with just two short false flat section dividing 3 long sections always around 7-9%. Mostly famous for deciding the Giro 1997. Can it also decide the Giro 2018?
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Cervinia (GPM1, 18.2 km at 5.3%)
An irregular climb that alternates good ramps with many false flat sections. Ridden last time in 2015, and before that in 2012. I guess next time in 2021...
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What to Expect:
The final GC showdown, if it did not happen yesterday (or even before). A team effort would be probably easier, but even a solo attack can work here.

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Monte Cervino
 
After today's big effort top guns will be tired tomorrow. Let's see how they will react (especially Froome and Dumoulin). Sure, this is the last mountain stage but I expect a much calmer stage with a successfull breakaway. I don't expect major attacks by GC favorites until the last few kms of Pantaleon. It's possible that GC action will take place only on the climb to Cervinia. Dumoulin may try something there but I'm not sure if he'll have much left in tank for tomorrow. BTW hopefully there'll be some great helicopter images of Matterhorn.
 
Froome cracks. But Pinot and Carapaz gap Dumo and Lopez over the top of St.Pantaleon. Richard gets its second stage win, and Thibaut takes time from everyone else, just not enough to shake up the podium.

Froome holds off Dumo by 2 seconds.
 
There's also a chance that one of Froome/Dumoulin will pay big price for today losing a lot of time. If one of them cracks tomorrow the other will win but what if both crack? Imagine this scenario: the race would be turned around again with 3 new candidates for victory :surprised:
 
Krzysztof_O said:
There's also a chance that one of Froome/Dumoulin will pay big price for today losing a lot of time. If one of them cracks tomorrow the other will win but what if both crack? Imagine this scenario: the race would be turned around again with 3 new candidates for victory :surprised:

Maybe Dumo, Froome can probably solo the entire stage tomorrow if the need arises.